Donald Trump has significant momentum in the presidential race, since according to a poll he came ahead of the current president of the United States of America (USA) Joseph Biden in all "wavering" states even before Saturday's assassination, according to a new poll conducted for the British "Times".
Trump leads Biden in seven states where voters are expected to win or lose the November election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The YouGov poll, conducted before any potential fallout from the shooting at a Trump rally, showed the former president's lead had increased in six of seven "swing" states since March.
It now ranges from a one percent advantage in Michigan to seven percent in Arizona.
Biden won six of those seven states in 2020 and cannot stay in the White House without winning at least three of them.
Trump was wounded at a rally in Pennsylvania, where he trailed Biden by one point in March, but now leads by three.
This Sunday he will appear at his party's convention in Wisconsin, where he also trailed by a point in March but now leads by five points.
DON'T MISS IT
The main reasons given by voters for Trump's "rise" were Biden's age and the view that Trump has done a better job as president.
Also worrying for Biden, who is fighting for political survival while party rebels seek to replace him with a younger candidate, is the fact that the Democratic candidates for the Senate are better positioned than him and lead in all five "swing" states between seven and twelve points.
Also, there is a gap in enthusiasm. Polls show that in all seven states, even before Saturday's shooting, Republicans were more likely to turn out to vote for Trump than Democrats for Biden.
"The poll shows the major challenges President Biden faces to be re-elected," said YouGov.
"He won six of seven states in 2020 (narrowly losing North Carolina - by just over a point), but now he's trailing in everything," they said.
In March, according to polls, Biden led in two states and was close in two more.
The July poll was conducted after Biden's disastrous performance in a TV debate with Trump on June 27, in which he "stumbled" over his words and at times appeared to lose his train of thought.
This comes after Trump became the first former president to be convicted of a crime - on May 31, he was found guilty in a Manhattan court of falsifying business records due to secret payments, in a case he described as a politically motivated "witch hunt."
Karl Bialik, vice president of data science and U.S. politics editor at YouGov, told The Times that the results "represent a significant shift" from March to July in a race that had been close for so long.
"We don't have a precedent for what just happened, but we do have a precedent for a really big event during the campaign, and what we can say is that Trump's ruling and the debate moved things by one to three points," he said.
Bialik added that the dynamic has changed from "a very close race" to "Biden has to bounce back in a few 'swing' states."
The poll found that in every state, at least two-thirds of voters think Biden is "too old to be president," including more than half of Biden's 2020 voters.
About half of people in each state approve of how Trump has done his job as president, and fewer approve of what Biden has done, with Biden's approval ranging from 36 percent in Arizona to 42 percent in Georgia.
Trump's approval rating ranges from 45 percent in Michigan to 51 percent in Arizona.
A majority of Republicans said they were "more enthusiastic" than in previous elections, ranging from 51 percent in Wisconsin to 64 percent in Nevada.
Only a minority of Democrats said the same, ranging from 36 percent in Wisconsin to 44 percent in Nevada.
How will the assassination of Trump affect the polls?
Pollsters are divided on this issue. President Ronald Reagan's approval rating rose from 60 percent to about 68 after he was shot in 1981.
However, Theodore Roosevelt lost after being shot during the 1912 campaign, and Gerald Ford survived two attempts before losing in 1976.
Many Democrats argue that the "boost" won't last until November, but Republican analysts like Frank Luncz disagree.
Lunz said that because of the attack, "every" Trump supporter will go to the polls.
"Trump voters are energized, Biden voters are demoralized," Lunz wrote on X on Sunday.
"In recent months, President Trump has benefited from a more passionate and engaged following than the Biden campaign, but the shooting will turn that gap in intensity into a chasm," Lunz said.
He predicted that higher turnout would increase support for Trump by one to two percentage points.
"Trump's defiant pose, fist in the air as he was led from the stage bleeding, will be the image people remember in the polling booth when they think about the 2024 election," he said.
"Only Trump can lose the presidential election now," he concluded.
Trump scored a landmark legal victory today as a federal case accusing him of wrongfully withholding classified documents was thrown out by a Florida court.
DON'T MISS IT
That followed another triumph at the Supreme Court on July 1, which ruled that Trump, as a former president, has immunity for his official actions in office.
Trump still faces sentencing in the "hush money" trial in New York and faces a separate federal trial for his role in the January 6, 2021 riot on Capitol Hill.
Both trials have been delayed as judges consider the impact of the Supreme Court ruling.
DON'T MISS IT
Trump also faces allegations of meddling in the Georgia election, though that case has been marked by numerous delays.
Bonus video:
