Within reach of election victory? After the assassination, former President Donald Trump was nominated as the presidential candidate at the Republican Party Congress with standing ovations. Has his triumph in the US elections in November now become more likely?
"It is certain that the attack brings him additional sympathy," German political scientist and Latin American expert Günter Majhold told Deutsche Welle (DW). "In that way, that person moves into another sphere. The public sees him as someone who needs special protection, and at the same time as a savior. This also applies in the case of Trump."
Majhold recalls the assassination of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro. On September 6, 2018, he was seriously wounded at an election rally in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro then won the presidential election in October with 55 percent of the votes.
"A mixture of sacrifice and catharsis"
"I believe there is a kind of Bolsonaro effect," explains Majhold. "The candidate becomes a symbol of chaos in his own society and at the same time a bearer of sympathy. It is a mixture of victim and catharsis. In this constellation, an additional element of charisma is created."
Brazilian columnist Joel Pinheiro da Fonseca goes one step further: "Bolsonaro is not the only one who won the elections after the assassination", he reminds in his article in the newspaper "Folha de S. Paulo". "And US President Ronald Reagan was re-elected with a large majority three years after the assassination in March 1981."
Pinheiro concludes: "Both were already favorites, and the assassination attempts only confirmed their success. The same could happen with Trump."
Modi also survived the assassination
This also applies to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. On October 27, 2013, in Patna, the capital of the Indian state of Bihar, he survived a bomb attack by the Islamist organizations "Indian Mujahideen" and "Student Islamic Movement of India".
The assassination happened in the middle of the election campaign. In the elections held from 7 April to 12 May 2014, Modi won a majority in the Indian Parliament for the first time for his Indian People's Party (BJP). He has been in power for ten years now.
Like all leading officials around the world, Modi also condemned the assassination of Trump and called for peace. But, in addition to official condemnations of political violence, social networks are also dominated by accusations.
"Global Left Networks"
Indian government spokesman Amit Malvija immediately blamed the "global left" for the attack on the Ix platform. Shortly after the assassination of Trump, he announced: "Shinzo Abe, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, and now Donald Trump. The threat is real. Global left networks are at work."
Bolsonaro's son Flavio spreads the same narrative. "The extreme left demonizes and dehumanizes its opponents with lies – and with the support of the established media," he announced on Iks. "Then a 'lone wolf' appears who has to save the world from 'enemies of democracy', 'genocide' or 'militia'. It is a formula of hatred that has real and almost deadly consequences."
Both are convinced that "assassinations are always directed against right-wing and conservative political leaders." A look into the past, however, shows that this is not the case.
Political assassination in Ecuador
For example, the progressive American president Theodore Roosevelt, who ran for a new term, was wounded in an assassination attempt on October 14, 1912 - but was not elected.
Democratic presidential candidate Robert Kennedy, brother of John F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1963, was killed during the 1968 election campaign.
A particularly disturbing example is the murder of Ecuadorian presidential candidate Fernando Villavicensi a year ago. That investigative journalist, who reported on corruption and violence in his country, was killed on August 9, 2023 in the city of Quito during a pre-election rally.
Political violence from both the right and the left
The list of assassinations of presidential candidates is long. Among the victims are the former Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko, who was poisoned with dioxin in 2004, as well as the Catholic priest and former president of Haiti, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who was unharmed in the attack on March 20, 2017.
"It doesn't matter if the assassination came from the left or the right," says Majhold and points out that the attack on Trump does not fit into that pattern either. Because the attacker was a member of the Republican Party.
"It is about the fact that we have reached a point where polarization is entering a new phase," he says.
The use of violence is becoming more and more acceptable.
"This new level of escalation is particularly dramatic in a country with as many weapons as the United States of America," the German political scientist concludes.
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