Only a cease-fire agreement in Gaza, which would emerge from talks expected this week, could deter Iran from directly retaliating against Israel for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil. This was announced by the Reuters agency, citing three senior Iranian officials.
Iran has vowed a strong response to the killing of Haniyeh while he was visiting Tehran late last month, which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied involvement. The US Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israel's defenses.
One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if talks in Gaza fail or if it perceives that Israel is stalling the talks. The sources did not say how long Iran would wait for the talks to progress before responding.
With the risk of a wider war in the Middle East heightened after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been in intensive dialogue with Western countries and the US in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.
Talks on a cease-fire in Gaza should begin on Thursday in Egypt or Qatar
In comments published yesterday, the US ambassador to Turkey confirmed that Washington is asking allies to help persuade Iran to reduce tensions. Three regional government sources described the talks with Tehran as a way to avoid escalation ahead of Gaza ceasefire talks, which are expected to start Thursday in Egypt or Qatar.
"We hope that our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire," the Iranian mission to the UN said on Friday. Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced yesterday that calls for restraint "contrary to the principles of international law."
"Iran and its proxies could do something as early as this week... That's the assessment of the US as well as the assessment of Israel," White House spokesman John Kirby said on Monday. "If something happens this week, the timing of that could certainly affect these negotiations that we want to hold on Thursday," he added.
Over the weekend, Hamas questioned whether the negotiations would continue. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing on a final ceasefire.
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would "severely punish" Israel for the Tehran attack.
Iran's regional policy is determined by the elite Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Khamenei, the highest authority in the country. Iran's relatively moderate new president, Massoud Pezeshkiyan, has repeatedly reiterated Iran's anti-Israel stance and support for resistance movements across the region since taking office last month.
Meir Litvak, a researcher in the Iranian studies program at Tel Aviv University, believes that Iran will put its own needs ahead of helping its ally Hamas, but that Iran also wants to avoid all-out war.
"The Iranians have never subordinated their strategy and policy to the needs of their proxies or protégés," Litvak said. "An attack is likely and almost inevitable, but I don't know the scale and timing".
An analyst from Iran, Said Lajlaz, said the leaders of the Islamic Republic now want to work on a ceasefire in Gaza, "to get incentives, avoid total war and strengthen their position in the region."
He said that Iran was not previously involved in the peace process in Gaza, but now it is ready to play a "key role".
According to two sources, Iran is considering sending representatives to the ceasefire talks, which would be the first time since the Gaza war began.
The representative would not attend the meetings directly, but would participate in behind-the-scenes discussions "to maintain diplomatic communication" with the US while negotiations are ongoing.
Iran was previously not involved in the Gaza peace process, but is now ready to play a key role
Two senior sources close to Lebanon's Hezbollah said Tehran would give talks a chance but would not give up its intention to retaliate. A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller "symbolic" response, one of the sources said.
Iran has not publicly stated what would be the target of a possible response to Hania's murder.
Two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in an attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, Iran launched hundreds of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles at Israel on April 13, damaging two air bases. Almost all weapons were shot down before reaching their targets.
"Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April 13 attack," said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Near East Policy Institute in Washington.
Nadimi believes that such a response would require "a lot of preparation and coordination" especially if it involved Iran's network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the US across the Middle East, with Hezbollah as a leading member of the "Axis of Resistance" which, together with Iraqi militias and Yemen's Houthis, attacks Israel since October 7.
Two Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah's top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an attack in Beirut a day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.
The sources did not specify what form that support could take.
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