In the nine years since Donald Trump entered American politics, the global perception of the United States has been shaken by the image of a divided, unpredictable nation. First one and then another apparent assassination of the former president further heightened international concerns, raising fears of violent unrest that could escalate into civil war.
British Prime Minister Kir Starmer said he was "very concerned" and "deeply disturbed" by what the FBI called an assassination attempt on Trump on his Florida golf course, less than 50 days before the presidential election and two months after a bullet grazed Trump's ear. during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
"Violence has no place in any political process," Starmer said.
However, violence has played a key role in this tumultuous American political campaign, and not just in the two alleged assassinations. There is now widespread global concern that the November election will not end well and that American democracy, once a beacon to the world, has been pushed to the breaking point.
In Mexico, where this year's election was the most violent in the country's recent history, in which 41 candidates and aspirants to public office were killed, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced on the X network: "Although it is still unclear what happened, we regret the violence against former President Donald Trump. The way forward is democracy and peace".
At a time of wars in Europe and the Middle East and general global insecurity as China and Russia assert the supremacy of their autocratic models, American instability is a heavy burden.
Corentin Selin, a French history professor, said the "brutalization of American politics" had left France in doubt as to whether the presidential campaign would end peacefully.
He said France was shocked by the attack by Trump supporters on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and "there is a sense that the story that began with that uprising is not yet over," and that the November 5 election will determine how it ends.
At a time of wars in Europe and the Middle East and general global insecurity as China and Russia assert the supremacy of their autocratic models, American instability is a heavy burden
The threat of violence, and sometimes even the need for it, is an essential part of Trump's message.
He has already questioned the credibility of the results of the upcoming November elections. He always used language full of calls to "fight" and used inflammatory language to insult migrants. Just before the attack on the Capitol, he urged his supporters to "fight like never before" or they would no longer "have their country." In general, he has shown an inability to accept many truths, including the outcome of the 2020 election.
Democrats responded by portraying Trump as a direct threat to American democracy, a "strange" would-be autocrat with fascist tendencies and a "threat to our liberties," in the words of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee. The left-wing magazine New Republic recently portrayed Trump as Hitler on its front page, expressing the view that a second Trump term would likely lead to some kind of American tyranny.
Some European countries see things very differently.
"They tried everything," said Andrea di Giuseppe, a lawmaker for Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni's right-wing Brothers of Italy party. "They tried to bring Trump down through trials, they tried innuendo, they tried to bring him down by scaring people that if Trump came to power, democracy would disappear. Then, when none of that worked, they tried to kill him."
Authorities have identified the suspect in the Florida incident as Ryan W. Raut, a 58-year-old construction contractor with a criminal record and passionate advocacy for the Ukrainian cause. He was charged in federal court with two firearms offenses. More charges are likely to follow.
Reacting to the apparent assassination, Carsten Luther, foreign policy editor of the online edition of the respected German weekly Zeit, expressed deep concern for the survival of American democracy. "Warnings of civil war can be heard and no longer sound completely unrealistic," he wrote. "It seems almost banal, like it's inevitable that it's going to happen at some point."
Of course, other Western countries, including France and Germany, are also deeply divided and are witnessing the rise of xenophobic, ultra-right parties with messages similar to Trump's. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was seriously wounded in an assassination attempt in May.
However, Europe's far more restrictive gun culture has limited the extent of political violence, while Europeans are concerned and appalled by the ease with which Americans can acquire weapons.
Felix Maradiaga, a former Nicaraguan presidential candidate and political prisoner who is now a fellow at the University of Virginia, said polarization, intolerance and the widespread availability of high-caliber weapons in the United States has created a "perfect storm."
"The world is watching, and the stakes could not be higher," he added. "Russia and China undoubtedly enjoy this deterioration of democracy".
Lebohang Peko of the South African Research Institute for Economics said she was seeing "the militarization of everyday life in the United States, and that is clearly spilling over into this election."
It often seemed that Trump was encouraging this very militarization of which he almost became a victim. The multi-millionaire son of a Queens real estate developer, he has positioned himself as a defender of the armed, pious American border guard against what he portrays as a Democratic politically correct socialist takeover.
Alluding to his Democratic opponents, he blamed the first assassination, as well as the second incident, on "the things they say about me," rather than the easy access to guns he defends.
Now the question arises as to how violent this political conflict will be in America. For many around the world, it seems to bear the seeds of uncontrollable conflict.
"There is a kind of reciprocal delegitimization, where the political opponent is no longer a normal political competitor, but an existential enemy," said Mario Sel Pero, a professor of United States and international history at the Institute of Political Science in Paris. He called this process "degradation of political and public discourse".
In the United States, as much of the world sees, this degradation is further exacerbated by guns.
"Style is more important than substance. Image is more important than problems. Lies are above facts. Distraction above politics. Repetitive violence," said Tomaš Pludovski, deputy dean of the School of Social Sciences, AEH, in Warsaw. "It looks like the modern American reality".
Today, few countries in the developing world want American lessons on how to run their societies. Still, the fascination with the United States continues, and the system of checks and balances in its institutions has proven resilient, even during Trump's first term.
The core of confrontation in Western societies is no longer about internal issues. It is about the global versus the national, about the connected who live "somewhere" in the knowledge economy, versus the forgotten who live "nowhere" in industrial wastelands and rural areas.
Therein lies the frustration, even anger, on which Trump or Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right French National Assembly, or Giorgio Meloni in Italy managed to build their support.
The perceived vulnerability of American democracy has already sparked many reactions around the world, from Russian jubilation and meddling to European concerns about its security. Today, few countries in the developing world want American lessons on how to run their societies.
Still, the fascination with the United States continues, and the system of checks and balances in its institutions has proven resilient, even during Trump's first term.
Trump often cites Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's template: neutralizing an independent judiciary, subjugating much of the media, demonizing migrants and creating loyal new elites through crony capitalism. But that would not be easy to impose in America.
Still, the world is worried. There are 48 days left until the election, which seems like a long period.
"In the end, the only real final word is the American people," said Di Giuseppe, an Italian lawmaker. "And if you want to defeat a person who you think is not capable of running the United States of America, you have to defeat him in a democratic system through elections, not justice or Kalashnikovs."
The article was published in the "New York Times"
Translation: A. Š.
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