While the international community calls for calming tensions in the Middle East, especially after the latest Israeli attacks on targets in Lebanon, the increasingly aggressive military strategy of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu towards Hezbollah and Iran contributes to the restoration of his political position, writes the "Financial Times" referring to recent polls.
Surveys show that the Israeli public, despite fears of a wider conflict, appears to support the moves, resulting in a boost to Netanyahu's Likud party on the political scene, following a drop in popularity following the October 7 Hamas attack.
Likud's recovery began even earlier, but became more pronounced after the Israeli assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas leaders at the end of July in Beirut and Tehran. This, as the FT points out, marked the escalation of the conflict between Israel and its regional enemies.
Support has continued to grow in recent weeks after a series of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, including the killing of the group's military commanders and the heaviest bombing of Lebanon since the 2006 war, which according to Lebanese authorities killed hundreds of people and displaced tens of thousands.
The pressure on Hezbollah has increased fears that the nearly year-long conflict will escalate and destabilize the oil-rich Middle East, where an already raging conflict between Hamas and Israel in Gaza shows no sign of ending. There is also a growing risk that the US, a close ally of Israel, and the regional power Iran, which has its intermediaries throughout the Middle East - Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and armed groups in Iraq - could become involved in the war.
Calls for diplomacy are growing, and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, yesterday called on all countries and influential actors to prevent further escalation in Lebanon. Yesterday, Joe Biden, in his last address at the United Nations in the role of US President, called for the calming of tensions in the Middle East.
"All-out war is in nobody's interest, even if the situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible," Biden said at the United Nations General Assembly.
Calling for restraint, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer yesterday called on "all sides to pull back from the brink of conflict."
It looks like Israel is taking the initiative. The truth is that everyone is scared because of the consequences. But each time they ended up being significantly less than the apocalypse that many predicted. Many people conclude from this that Netanyahu has stabilized Israel's position again, political analyst Dalia Scheindlin said.
On the other hand, polls in Israel suggest that it was thanks to the military actions that Netanyahu's Likud regained much of the support they lost after the attack by Hamas, which is considered the biggest security failure in Israel's history. Netanyahu's coalition with ultra-religious and far-right parties would still not have a majority in new elections. However, surveys in the last two weeks show that Likud would win between twenty and twenty-five seats in the 120-member parliament, up from 16 in polls after October 7 last year.
"Netanyahu has definitely recovered from the fall," political analyst Dalia Scheindlin told the Financial Times, arguing that Israel's increasingly aggressive regional action played a role in his comeback. "It looks like Israel is taking the initiative," she added. "It's true that everyone is scared about the consequences. But each time they ended up being significantly less than the apocalypse that many predicted. Many people conclude from that that Netanyahu has re-stabilized Israel's position."
The escalation of Israel's conflict with Hezbollah - and the risk that it could spill over into a regional conflict - has dominated the news in recent weeks, diverting attention from the war with Hamas in Gaza, which has dominated the past 11 months. Scheindlin said the change benefited Netanyahu, given that Israel is nowhere near fulfilling its war goals in Gaza, destroying Hamas and freeing Israeli hostages.
Recent polls suggest that most Israelis support military action against Hezbollah, although their views differ on whether they are ready to take steps that could spark a regional war. "Netanyahu is losing credibility on the Gaza issue as he promises total victory, and poll after poll shows that people think his decisions are driven by political interests rather than the public good," she said. "On the other hand, there is a much stronger feeling of gathering around the flag when it comes to Hezbollah and (the threat of) regional escalation."
Nadav Strauhler, a political strategist who previously worked with Netanyahu, said that the weakness of the opposition also helped the prime minister, because his rivals in the parliament failed to seriously threaten him, and the protests in the streets did not reach a level that could pose a threat to him.
"Believe me, if Netanyahu was in the opposition, the opposition would look different. You saw how it was last time when he was in the opposition. He worked day after day and drove the government crazy," Strauhler told the FT, referring to the continuous attacks that were initiated by Netanyahu and his allies during his short stay out of power in the period 2021-22.
Despite the increase in Likud's popularity, analysts warn that the situation could still change drastically by the next elections, which do not have to be held before October 2026.
"If you ask if he can be re-elected, it depends on the results on both fronts, north and south," said Aviv Bushinsky, a political analyst who was Netanyahu's chief of staff in the early 2000s. "It will be judged on the basis of the final outcome, not on the basis of what happened in the meantime".
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