Although loud threats are constantly coming from Tehran, Iran has so far avoided a direct confrontation with Israel. Why? It is clear that the Iranian regime is not ready or able to carry out its many threats.
When Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Al-Quds Brigades in Iraq, was killed in an assassination carried out by the USA at the airport in Baghdad (January 3.01.2020, XNUMX), Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called it a declaration of war and vowed revenge.
In response, Iran launched airstrikes against the Al-Asad military base in Iraq and the US military base in Erbil, northern Iraq. The attacks caused material damage, but no one was killed.
When Israel, after the terrorist attack by Hamas on 7/10/2023, intensively bombarded the Gaza Strip, and the number of victims among Palestinians grew, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdolahian warned that if Israel continued to attack unarmed civilians in Gaza, no one cannot guarantee that the conflict will not spread. In other words: Iran could join the conflict.
Half a year later, in March 2024, Reuters reported a statement by the Lebanese Hezbollah that - after consultation with Tehran - it would independently lead the fight against Israel and that Iran would not get involved militarily.
Caution despite great humiliations
Khamenei ordered the rocket attack on Israel only when on April 1, 2024, seven members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were killed in a targeted attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. However, Tehran announced the attack in advance and even informed the US government. Hours after the Iranian missile fire, which was largely intercepted by Israel, Iran declared that the incident could be considered "over". Not much was said about the success of the attack.
And when Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, was killed on July 31, 2024 in an assassination in Tehran, for which Israel is held responsible, Iran vowed revenge. However, it has not yet been implemented.
Lack of support within the country
It is clear that the Iranian regime is not ready or able to carry out its many threats. An important reason is the lack of support from the population.
The majority of Iranians want the end of the Islamic Republic and complain about the huge expenditures to support Iran's allies, while at the same time a large part of the population lives below the poverty line.
Demonstrators have been shouting for years: "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon. I dedicate my life to Iran!"
In addition, in the event of an attack on Israel, Iran would have to count on heavy counterattacks, which would weaken rather than strengthen the regime in Tehran. Israel is militarily superior, and even if the attacks were aimed solely at the infrastructure, it could cause even greater discontent among the population.
In addition, Iran would have to fear that Israel would also attack its underground nuclear facilities using cluster bombs, as it did with Hezbollah's headquarters.
Given this, Ayatollah Khamenei and his followers must think carefully about how they will respond to the death of Hassan Nasrallah and whether they will engage in a military confrontation with Israel.
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