Why Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon: Will Iran get involved?

The Israeli military said its goal was to destroy Hezbollah targets along the border. As stated, one military division, which usually numbers more than 10.000 soldiers, is involved in the operations

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Israeli soldiers in the north of the country, Photo: Reuters
Israeli soldiers in the north of the country, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Israel has launched a "limited and targeted" ground operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Israeli forces crossed the border on October 1 – the first since the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Hezbollah is both an armed group and a political party that controls much of southern Lebanon.

The United States considers it a terrorist organization, although the European Union has blacklisted only its armed wing.

What is Israel's goal?

The Israeli military said its goal was to destroy Hezbollah targets along the border. As stated, one military division, which usually numbers more than 10.000 soldiers, is involved in the operations.

Last month, Israel made the return of about 60.000 residents of northern Israel displaced by Hezbollah attacks a key war goal. Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging cross-border attacks since Israel invaded the Gaza Strip in October 2023.

Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Bahrain-based consulting firm Le Beck International, said Israel is trying to dismantle Hezbollah's infrastructure along the border, including tunnels and observation posts.

"It is 'limited' in that sense, because the goal is not to defeat Hezbollah, which would require a much broader invasion of much of Lebanon," he said.

However, it is not clear whether the Israeli invasion will be limited in scope.

US officials note that Israel initially called its 1982 invasion of southern Lebanon a "limited" attack, which turned into an 18-year occupation.

Israel also ordered communities in southern Lebanon to evacuate north of the Awali River, about 60 kilometers from the border, raising fears of a larger offensive.

Horowitz believes that Israel risks being "drawn even deeper" if it tries to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. He points out that Israeli leaders probably want to avoid being drawn into a protracted war.

"At the same time, if Israeli troops withdraw, Hezbollah is likely to return and launch new attacks against Israel, which would be embarrassing for the Israeli government," he said.

Can Hezbollah fight?

Hezbollah has suffered major setbacks in recent months. Israel liquidated most of the leadership of this militant group, disabled a significant part of its military arsenal and disrupted communications.

Although the group has been weakened, experts say Hezbollah should not be written off, given its significant manpower and military arsenal.

"Hezbollah has enough resources and experience to cause significant damage to Israel in a war on the ground," Azizi said, adding that the group is better armed and trained than the Palestinian Hamas, a group that the US and the EU have declared a terrorist group.

Israel believes that Hezbollah "is in a state of chaos and that there is a gap in the command and control system", assesses the associate of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Hamidreza Azizi.

"We can expect the initial progress and successes of Israel," he says.

He points out that Hezbollah has a "significant advantage" in ground fighting because of the group's experience in guerrilla warfare and familiarity with the local terrain.

Hezbollah, since its founding in the early 1980s, has become the dominant military force in Lebanon, effectively supplanting the country's conventional army.

Azizi says the Lebanese army is "relatively weak" compared to Hezbollah, which has an estimated 40.000 fighters.

The army has a limited presence in southern Lebanon, where United Nations (UN) peacekeeping forces are deployed.

With Hezbollah controlling much of the region, the Lebanese army is unlikely to play a major role in ground battles with Israeli forces.

Will Iran get involved?

Iran, a key Hezbollah ally, is under pressure to respond after Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, the group's longtime leader, in an airstrike in Beirut on September 27.

An Israeli ground invasion of southern Lebanon could only increase the pressure on Tehran.

However, experts say Tehran is unlikely to launch a direct military attack on Israel, which could trigger an open conflict with its longtime enemy.

When another Iranian ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was in danger of being toppled during the country's civil war, Iran intervened to stay in power.

However, Azizi points out that Iran is unlikely to deploy a mediation force as well as its military advisers – as it did in Syria – in Lebanon.

The Lebanese government has also blocked Iranian planes from entering the country's airspace following threats from Israel.

Azizi argues that Iran's only viable option is to help other members of its so-called axis of resistance - a loose network of intermediaries and allies of Tehran - to "mobilize and intensify their attacks on Israel".

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