The supreme leader no longer trusts anyone

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to flee Lebanon days before he was killed in an Israeli attack and is now deeply concerned about Israeli infiltration of senior government officials in Tehran, three Iranian sources said. Reuters agency.

Immediately after the September 17 attack on communications devices used by Hezbollah members, Khamenei sent an emissary to Beirut to convey a message to Nasrallah to flee to Iran, citing intelligence reports that suggested Israel had agents inside Hezbollah and was planning to kills, a senior Iranian official told Reuters.

The message, the official said, was delivered by the senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, who was with Nasrallah in his bunker when he was hit by Israeli bombs, killing him.

Khamenei, who has been in a safe haven in Iran since Saturday, personally ordered about 200 rockets to be fired at Israel on Tuesday, a senior Iranian official said. The attack was in retaliation for the death of Nasrallah and Nilforushan, according to the statement of the Revolutionary Guard.

The statement also mentions the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, as well as Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the death of Haniyeh.

Iran's fears for Khamenei's safety and a loss of trust, both within Hezbollah and within and among the Iranian establishment, surfaced in conversations by Reuters reporters with 10 sources for this story, who described a situation that could complicate the effective functioning of Iran's axis of resistance, a network of anti-Israel irregular armed groups.

Founded with Iranian support in the 1980s, Hezbollah has long been the most powerful member of that network. The turmoil also makes it difficult for Hezbollah to choose a new leader, as they fear that the current infiltration will endanger the successor, four Lebanese sources said.

"Essentially, Iran has lost its biggest investment in decades," said Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defense University, referring to the severe damage inflicted on Hezbollah, which he says has reduced Iran's ability to attack Israel's borders. .

"It deeply shook Iran. It also shows how much Israel has infiltrated: they not only killed Nasrallah, but also Nilforushan," he said. Nilforusan was Khamenei's military adviser and a trusted man.

With the loss of Hezbollah's military capability and leadership, Iran could return to attacks on Israeli embassies and personnel abroad, which it carried out more often before its proxy forces were developed, Ranstorp added.

Arrests in Iran

Since Nasrallah's death, Iranian authorities are thoroughly investigating possible infiltrations within their own ranks, from the powerful Revolutionary Guard to senior security officials, another senior Iranian official said. They are particularly focused on those who travel abroad or have relatives living outside Iran, the first official said.

Tehran became suspicious of certain members of the Guard who traveled to Lebanon. Concerns grew when one of those individuals began asking questions about Nasrallah's whereabouts, particularly how long he would stay in certain locations, the official added.

With the loss of Hezbollah's military capability and leadership, Iran may return to attacks on Israeli embassies and personnel abroad, which it previously carried out more frequently before its proxy forces were developed.

The individual was arrested along with several others after an alert was raised in Iranian intelligence circles, a Reuters source said. The suspect's family has moved outside Iran, an Iranian official said, without identifying the suspect or his relatives.

Another official said the assassination spread mistrust between Tehran and Hezbollah, but also within Hezbollah itself. "The trust that held everything together is gone," the official said. The supreme leader "doesn't trust anyone anymore," said a third source close to the Iranian establishment.

The first warning signs of possible Mossad infiltration in Tehran and Hezbollah emerged after the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli airstrike in July at a secret location in Beirut while he was meeting with the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), they told Reuters. two Hezbollah sources and a Lebanese security official. A few hours after that murder, the assassination of the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, took place in Tehran.

Unlike the assassination of Haniyeh, Israel publicly claimed responsibility for the assassination of Shukr, although he was a low-profile figure. Nasrallah described him at the funeral as a key figure in the history of Hezbollah, who built its most important capabilities.

Shukr was instrumental in the development of Hezbollah's most advanced weaponry, including precision-guided missiles, and was in charge of the Shiite group's operations against Israel over the past year, the Israeli military said in a statement.

Iranian fears about Israeli penetration of their upper ranks have been going on for years.

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad revealed in 2021 that the head of the Iranian intelligence unit, which was supposed to target Mossad agents, was actually an agent of the Israeli spy agency. Ahmadinejad told CNN Turk that Israel had obtained classified documents about Iran's nuclear program, citing a 2018 raid in which Israel obtained a huge amount of classified documents about the program.

Also in 2021, the outgoing head of Israel's Mossad intelligence service, Yossi Cohen, gave details of that raid, telling the BBC that 20 non-Israeli Mossad agents were involved in the theft of the archive from the warehouse.

Investigation after the explosion of the device

Khamenei's call for Nasrallah to relocate to Iran came after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah exploded in deadly attacks on September 17 and 18, the first official said. These attacks have been attributed to Israel, although that country has not officially claimed responsibility.

Nasrallah, however, was confident in his security and fully trusted his closest circle despite Tehran's serious concerns about possible "moles" within Hezbollah's ranks. Khamenei tried a second time to send a message to Nasrallah, via Nilforoushan, last Sunday, asking him to leave Lebanon and move to Iran as a safer location. However, Nasrallah insisted on staying in Lebanon, the official said.

The first warning signs of possible Mossad infiltration in Tehran and Hezbollah emerged after the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli airstrike in July at a secret location in Beirut.

After the pager blasts, several high-level meetings were held in Tehran to discuss the security of Hezbollah and Nasrallah, the official said, but declined to reveal who attended the meetings.

At the same time, in Lebanon, Hezbollah launched a major investigation to eliminate Israeli spies from among them, interrogating hundreds of members after the pager detonations, three Lebanese sources told Reuters. Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, a senior Hezbollah official, led the investigation, one Hezbollah source said. The investigation progressed quickly, the source said, before Kaouk was killed in an Israeli attack the day after Nasrallah was killed. Another attack earlier that week targeted senior Hezbollah commanders, some of whom were involved in the investigation.

Kaouk called for interrogation of Hezbollah officials who were involved in logistics, as well as others "who participated, brokered and received bids for pagers and walkie-talkies," the source said. After the killing of Nasrallah and other commanders, a "deeper and more comprehensive investigation" and a purge of the ranks is now needed, the source added.

Ali al-Amin, editor-in-chief of the website Janubia, which focuses on the Shiite community and Hezbollah, said reports indicated that Hezbollah had detained hundreds of people for questioning after the pager incident.

Hezbollah was shocked by Nasrallah's assassination in his deep bunker at the command headquarters, surprised by how successfully Israel managed to infiltrate the group, seven sources told Reuters. Mohanad Haze Ali, deputy director of research at the Carnegie Center for the Middle East in Beirut, described the offensive as "Israel's largest intelligence infiltration" since the establishment of Hezbollah with the support of Iran in the 1980s.

Loss of trust

Because of the Israeli offensive and fear of further attacks, Hezbollah did not organize a national funeral on a scale that would reflect Nasrallah's religious and leadership status, said four sources familiar with the debate within Hezbollah.

"No one can approve a funeral under these circumstances," said one Hezbollah source, complaining of a situation where officials and religious leaders cannot show up to properly honor the deceased leader.

Several commanders killed last Sunday were buried discreetly on Monday, with plans for a proper religious ceremony once the conflict ends.

Hezbollah is considering securing a religious decree for Nasrallah's temporary burial and holding an official funeral when the situation permits, four Lebanese sources said.

Hezbollah has refrained from officially naming Nasrallah's successor, possibly to avoid his replacement becoming a target for Israeli assassination, they added.

"The appointment of a new secretary-general could be dangerous if Israel kills him right after," Amin said. "The group cannot risk further chaos by appointing someone only to be killed later."