America to prevent an oil war

The Persian Gulf states are lobbying the Americans to prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's oil facilities because they are concerned that their oil infrastructure could be targeted by Tehran's proxies if the conflict escalates, three Gulf sources told Reuters.

In an effort to avoid being caught in the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar are also refusing to allow Israel to use their airspace for any attack and have communicated this to Washington, three sources said. close to government circles.

Israel has vowed to make Iran pay for the missile attack last week, and Tehran has said it will respond to any retaliation with massive destruction. That raised fears of a wider war in the region that could involve the US.

The moves by the Gulf states followed a diplomatic push by non-Arab Shiite Iran to persuade its Sunni neighbors in the Gulf to use leverage on Washington amid growing concerns that Israel could attack Iran's oil facilities, Reuters reports.

During meetings this week, Iran warned Saudi Arabia that it could not guarantee the security of its oil facilities if Israel was helped in any way to carry out an attack, a senior Iranian official and an Iranian diplomat told Reuters.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst close to the Saudi royal court, said: "The Iranians have said: 'If the Gulf states open airspace to Israel, it would be an act of war.' However, Saudi Arabia will not allow anyone to use its airspace."

The diplomat said Tehran sent clear support to Riyadh that its allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen could respond if there was any regional support for Israel against Iran.

A potential attack by Israel was the focus of talks on Wednesday between Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was touring the Gulf to drum up support, Gulf and Iranian sources said.

The Iranian minister's visit, along with Saudi-American communications at the defense ministry level, are part of a coordinated push to resolve the crisis, a Gulf source close to government circles told Reuters.

Iran has warned of more severe consequences if Israel is allowed to use the airspace of the Gulf states

A person in Washington familiar with the talks confirmed that Gulf officials had contacted their American counterparts to express concern about the potential scale of expected Israeli retaliation.

The White House declined to comment on whether the Gulf governments had asked Washington to ensure that Israel's response was measured. US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Israeli retaliation in a phone call on Wednesday that both sides described as positive.

Jonathan Panikoff, the US government's former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, who is now at the Atlantic Council, said: "The concerns of the Gulf states are likely to be a key topic of conversation with Israeli counterparts in trying to persuade Israel to take carefully calibrated action."

Oil at risk?

OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is de facto led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare capacity to compensate for any loss of Iranian supplies if Israeli retaliation disables any of the country's facilities.

However, most of these reserve capacities are in the Gulf region, so the world could face an oil supply problem if oil facilities in Saudi Arabia or the UAE, for example, were attacked, Reuters points out.

Saudi Arabia has been on alert for a possible Iranian attack on its oil facilities since the 2019 attack on its Aramco oil field, which shut down more than five percent of global oil supply. Iran has denied involvement.

There has been a rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran in recent years, but relations remain problematic.

There are US military installations or troops in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Concerns about oil facilities and the possibility of a wider regional conflict were also a major topic of discussion between Emirati officials and their American counterparts, another Gulf source said.

An Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure would have global ramifications, especially for China, as well as for Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 election

In 2022, Yemen's Houthis, allies of Iran, fired missiles and drones at an oil tanker near a refinery owned by the Emirate's state oil firm ADNOC and claimed responsibility for the attack.

"The Gulf states do not allow Israel to use their airspace. "They will not allow Israeli rockets to pass, and there is also hope that they will not attack oil facilities," said a Gulf source.

Three Gulf sources stressed that Israel could direct attacks through Jordan or Iraq, but using Saudi, UAE or Qatari airspace is not an option and is strategically unnecessary.

In the middle of a missile war

According to two senior Israeli officials, Israel will tailor its response and had not yet decided on Wednesday whether to attack Iran's oil fields.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said on Wednesday: “Our attack will be deadly, precise and above all surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see results".

Three sources from the Gulf stated that Saudi Arabia, as a leading oil exporter along with its oil-producing neighbors - the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain - has a strong interest in de-escalating the situation.

“We will be in the middle of a missile war. There are serious concerns, especially if the target of an Israeli attack is Iran's oil installations,” another Gulf source said.

Three Gulf sources said an Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure would have a global impact, especially for China - the largest buyer of Iranian oil - as well as for Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 election in which she is running against Donald Trump.

"If oil prices rise to $120 a barrel, it will hurt both the American economy and Harris' chances in the election. So they (the Americans) will not allow the oil war to spread," said the first Gulf source.

Gulf sources said protecting all oil installations remained a challenge, despite advanced missile and Patriot defense systems, so the primary approach remained diplomatic: sending a signal to Iran that the Gulf states were not a threat.

Barnard Heikel, a professor of Middle East studies at Princeton University, pointed out that Riyadh is vulnerable "because the Iranians can attack those installations because of the short distance from the mainland."