The annual summit of the BRICS countries, the sixteenth since the organization was founded in 2006, is being held in Kazan, Russia. It is attended by 24 presidents of states and governments, including the Russian host, President Vladimir Putin.
At the recent summit in South Africa, Putin was not in the joint photo. In his place, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was there.
Putin canceled because he was apparently afraid of being arrested, since the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an emergency warrant against him, and South Africa recognizes that court.
The original group of BRICS members - Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa - were joined in 2024 by four more countries: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.
Moscow says that interest in cooperation is growing, that 34 countries want cooperation "in various forms", among which are members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, countries from Africa, South America and Southeast Asia.
At the summit in Kazan, the expanded format of BRICS plus will be discussed, in order to increase the economic and political significance of that organization.
BRICS Bridge – global payment system
One of the main topics is the joint BRICS Bridge payment system, which was presented by the Russian Finance Minister at the beginning of October.
It should enable "fast and affordable" cross-border payments between member countries in national currencies, including blockchain technology and central bank digital currencies - without involving correspondent banks in the US.
According to The Economist magazine, in this way Moscow wants to bypass international sanctions that prevent Russia from making cross-border payments in US dollars.
The planned payment system has alarmed Western financial watchdog institutions, but establishing such a payment system is complicated.
Participating countries must provide large state aid, and the system could overburden national regulatory institutions if one country were to accumulate large monetary reserves in another country's currency.
Russia's motive is clear, says the Economist, but why would other BRICS countries need such a payment system?
Attractive for developing countries
Evgenij Kogan from the Russian Higher School of Economics wrote on his Telegram profile "Bitkogan" that the BRICS organization has so far shown almost no willingness to protect Russia from international sanctions.
Thus, the Development Bank, which was founded by the BRICS countries, itself joined the sanctions against Russia in 2022.
In addition, Kogan points to the following relationship: the total population of BRICS countries is 3,5 billion people, which is 45 percent of the world's population. At the same time, their share in the global gross domestic product is 37,3 percent. From this he concludes that "it is too early to talk about a new world order".
But developing countries have an interest in the BRICS organization and its payment system. "Not to anger the US, but as an opportunity for a really quick payment," wrote this Russian economist.
Five to seven percent of international payments in US dollars are being slowed down by US correspondent bank rules. This should help in the fight against insider trading, money laundering and terrorist financing.
Kogan criticizes that the BRICS states represent a "philosophical view of an ineffective and unjust modern world order".
BRICS members: competition and contradictions
Moscow still manages to sell the BRICS format as a "new world order," says Anton Barbašin from the RiddleRussia portal. In an interview with DW, this political scientist points to the growing economic and political role of the BRICS members - India, China and the United Arab Emirates - since Russia launched a general war against Ukraine.
Russia launches numerous initiatives, although most of them are not implemented, or remain at the level of the BRICS sports competition.
"The single currency project has failed," concludes Barbasin. So far, only Iran is cooperating with Russia on building an "alternative financial architecture," which should be based on the Russian Mir payment system.
The BRICS organization remains an "interested club" in which everyone simply wants to make good deals, says Barbašin. "Due to pressure from Western countries, Russia is only the most important provider of cheap energy."
Barbašin is convinced that the BRICS slogan "For a just world" will remain only a slogan, because each member state conducts its own negotiations with developed Western countries and because there are numerous contradictions within this organization.
That is why a military alliance will not emerge from that organization.
"In 2020, China and India clashed a bit, and Iran repeatedly threatens Saudi Arabia, a partner of the United Arab Emirates, with war. If the conflict between China and the USA escalates, the BRICS countries will disperse into different camps." The future of the BRICS organization will depend on rivals India and China, Barbašin believes.
Russia increasingly dependent on China
In 2023, India and China were the main importers of Russian oil with 90 percent. Alexei Chigadaev from the University of Leipzig points out this in an interview with DW.
How the Russian state budget will be filled depends on trade, says this political scientist and orientalist.
"South Africa and Brazil play a clearly subordinate role in this case." And China's influence on Russia is currently growing faster than India's because of the financial interaction. Of all the options, China's currency remains the most liquid and least volatile.
Chigadaev says that Chinese authorities do not support the connection of Chinese banks to the Russian Financial Messaging System (SPFS), which works similarly to SWIFT.
Instead, China is recruiting in the Russian market for its own CIPS financial system. There are currently four Chinese banks operating in Russia that perform transactions with 23 Russian banks as indirect participants.
"Russia will probably become increasingly dependent on the yuan and Beijing to maintain access to the international financial system," Chigadaev believes.
He thinks that this is precisely why Moscow wants to encourage the creation of a common BRICS currency, in order to reduce its increasing dependence on China.
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