European allies of the United States are preparing for an America that will be less interested in them, regardless of the outcome of the presidential elections, but also for old traumas and new problems if Donald Trump returns to the White House, the Associated Press (AP) assesses.
The election comes more than two and a half years after the start of Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, with Washington making the largest single contribution to the defense of Kiev. The question is whether that support would continue under Trump and how committed he would be to NATO allies in general.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, the current policy may continue, although there are concerns in Europe that support could weaken due to Republican opposition and growing war fatigue among the American public, AP writes.
Trump's penchant for imposing tariffs on US partners is also causing concern in Europe, which is already struggling with sluggish economic growth. However, it is not only the possibility of a second Trump term that makes the continent nervous about the difficult period ahead, according to the AP, noting that European officials believe that American priorities lie elsewhere, regardless of the outcome of the election. The Middle East is currently President Joe Biden's top priority, but the long-term focus is on China.
"Europe is no longer at the center of American foreign policy as it was during the key years of Biden's career," believes Rachel Tausendfreund from the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. "And in that way, it is true that Biden is the last transatlantic president".
She expects the US to continue to turn to Asia. "This means that Europe must take greater responsibility, become a more capable partner and more capable of managing its own security space."
Europe is no longer at the center of American foreign policy as it was during the key years of Biden's career, which means it must take on greater responsibility, become a more capable partner and better able to manage its own security space.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius noted, as he signed a new defense pact with NATO ally Great Britain, that the US would focus more on the Indo-Pacific region, "so it's just a question of whether it will do a lot less work in Europe as a result or just a little less".
Ian Lesser from the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, said that "above all, Europe is looking for predictability from Washington", and that is scarce in a turbulent world where every administration will face numerous demands for attention, AP writes.
"However, the potential for disruption is clearly greater in the case of a possible Trump administration," Lesser believes.
He said the assumption of substantial continuity in the event of a Harris victory is likely justified because many who shaped policy under Biden are likely to remain. "It's a pretty familiar world, even if the strategic environment itself brings uncertainties."
While both the US and Europe are increasingly focused on competing with Asia, the ongoing war in Europe means that "the potential costs of deviating from European security on the US side are much higher today than they might have been a few years ago," Lesser said. "Europe's ability to deal with it depends on the speed with which it happens," he added.
Europe's lag in defense spending has irked US administrations of both parties for years, even as NATO members, including Germany, stepped up investment after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO predicts that 23 of the 32 allies will meet the goal of spending two percent of gross domestic product on defense this year, compared to just three a decade ago.
During his tenure from 2017 to 2021, Trump threatened to leave "delinquent" countries if they didn't pay their "bills." During this campaign he hinted that Russia could do whatever it wanted with them.
His threats have undermined confidence and worried countries closest to an increasingly unpredictable Russia, such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
The AP writes that Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an existential challenge, in a way that the U.S. may not ultimately view it, even with some signs of war fatigue emerging in Europe itself.
If Trump wins, "all indications are that he has no interest in continuing to support Ukraine in this war" and will quickly push for some sort of truce or peace deal that may not suit Kiev and that Europe may not be ready for, she said. Tausendfreund.
"And also, Europe cannot in any way replace the military gap if the US were to withdraw".
"Even with the Harris administration, there's a broader, shifting debate — frankly, on both sides of the Atlantic — about what's next in the war in Ukraine, what the endgame is," Lesser said.
Biden emphasized the need for consistent support for Ukraine during a recent short visit to Berlin, where he spoke with the leaders of Germany, France and Britain.
"We must not give up. We must maintain support," Biden said. "In my opinion, we must continue until Ukraine achieves a just and lasting peace."
The experience he gained throughout his life taught him that "we never underestimate the power of democracy, we never underestimate the value of alliances," added the 81-year-old Biden.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who awarded Biden Germany's highest award for his contribution to transatlantic relations, hopes Biden's compatriots hear that.
"In the coming months, I hope Europeans will remember: America is essential to us," he said. "And I also hope that the Americans will remember: Your allies are indispensable to you. We are more than just 'other countries' in the world - we are partners, we are friends".
According to the AP, the coming years could be tumultuous regardless of who wins the White House.
"Regardless of the outcome next week, half the country is going to be furious," Leser said, noting there was "every chance" of a divided government in Washington.
"Europe will face a very chaotic and occasionally dysfunctional America," he concluded.
Bonus video:
