During Tuesday's election, many nervous voters, pollsters and campaign officials will pay close attention to Erie County, Pennsylvania, which has virtually chosen the winner of the past four presidential elections.
Over the past decade, the margin of votes between election winners and losers has shrunk, mirroring a national trend that may not come as much of a surprise. After all, as Jeff Bloodworth, a history professor at Genon University in downtown Erie, told VOA, "Erie County is a microcosm of the entire nation."
Erie County is the largest by area in this federal state, and as the professor says, "it has a little more white people, is a little poorer and a little less educated than the Pennsylvania average."
Presidential candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties campaigned there in the last weeks before the election.
"Iri County, everything revolves around you. How you vote in presidential elections often predicts the final result," said Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris, at a gathering of Democrats in that county.
Former President Donald Trump also held a rally in the district.
"I'm here in Ireland, in Pennsylvania, with workers who used to be Democrats, but now they're all Trump Republicans because they know Trump will take them to the promised land," he told the crowd.
Democrats traditionally predominate in the city. But the party does not take anything for granted, it stands for maximum response in the city and in the district.
"We've passed the point of convincing voters and now it's time to get our voter base to vote, and nothing works better than door knocking and personal contact," said local Democratic President Sam Talarico.
He says the presidential candidates' visits to Ireland make a difference when it comes to enthusiasm.
"With a seesaw lead in the polls and possibly unreliable in such a tight race, the only thing we can rely on is enthusiasm, and we know the enthusiasm in Erie County is huge," Talarico added.
Republicans are stronger in the more rural communities of this district.
Harold Ross is going door-to-door in Erie County and neighboring Warren County, where he lives, to solicit support for Trump.
"You're knocking on doors and you don't know who you're going to run into. You might run into a hard-line Democrat. You're kind of trying to stay neutral because you don't want to come across as pushy," explained Ross, wearing a T-shirt with a police photo of the former president on the occasion. arrest in 2023 in Georgia after being charged with attempting to illegally change the outcome of the 2020 election.
"I've run into Democrats who actually tell me they're going to vote for Donald Trump," Ross said.
Linda Pecino is the manager of Trump's campaign office in Cory. She told Voice of America that she did not sleep worried about Trump's fate in the elections.
"All of a sudden something hit me and I thought he's won. He's winning. He's going to win Pennsylvania," Pecino recalled.
Iri has long been on the losing side, regardless of the party in power. People left when the factories closed. Now people are attracted there by recreational tourism and activities such as boating or wine tasting.
Mario Maca is the second generation of the family that owns the vineyard. His father and uncle were immigrants from Italy and developed the family business along the shores of Lake Erie more than half a century ago. They invested in a business that has more than 240 hectares under vineyards and cereals.
According to Maca, some in the district are tired of the attention paid to voters by presidential campaigns.
"I don't know anyone who buys it and enjoys the amount of attention," he said.
He added that he wants to hear more pragmatism from presidential campaigns and less harsh rhetoric, especially on an issue central to his job, the immigrant workforce.
"Without labor, agriculture in this country will stop and I think everyone in agriculture knows that. Everyone in the food supply chain knows and understands that," Maca said.
The winery is more upscale than the typical fast food places that dot the town of Iri.
At La Cocina Coqui, people come on their lunch break to buy food. Many speak Spanish, nostalgic for the Puerto Rican dishes made by owner Leida Rodriguez.
An influx of Spanish-speaking people, particularly those from Puerto Rico or whose parents were born in that Caribbean territory of the United States, has helped offset the decline of the Irish population in recent years.
Rodriguez said that in this election season, her customers also want a president who will solve inflation.
"Food prices, rent is going up here. They're just looking at it, and who would help," she says during a short break in the kitchen of a small restaurant.
The Democrats' advantage in voter registration and their campaign organization seem to favor Harris here, but Professor Bladworth said that assumption may not be valid.
"Before Trump, you'd look at this and think the Democrats would win. They're organized. They have a dozen paid workers in a district of 200.000 people. It just has to make sense. But it doesn't, because Donald Trump kind of changed the rules of America politics," he told Voice of America.
The only thing Democrats and Republicans in the district seem to agree on right now is that they are very concerned about the high expectations ahead of a must-win district election in a must-win state.
Bonus video:
