Americans go to the polls on November 5. Statements will be made about the president, as well as the future composition of the Congress, as well as numerous state officials and initiatives.
After a months-long campaign marked by the exit of incumbent President Joe Biden from the race and two assassination attempts on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, followed by fierce rhetoric and attacks, voters - those who have not already taken advantage of the opportunity to vote in person or by mail - will on Tuesday between other things to decide: whether to give another chance to the former president or to elect the first woman and the first member of a minority to head America.
In the hope that in the last days of the pre-election campaign they will be able to influence that decision, the presidential candidates - Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris - tried in their final messages to present to them what awaits them in the future, depending on the outcome of the election.
"If elected, Donald Trump will enter office on day one with an enemy list. When elected, I will come in with a list full of priorities on what I will do for the American people. And I will cooperate with everyone - democrats, republicans, independents, to help Americans who work hard, but despite that, they are still struggling," said the Democratic candidate and current vice president of the USA, at a rally in Washington.
Her Republican opponent, former President Trump, asked his supporters again at a rally in New York: are you better off today than four years ago?
"I am here today with a message of hope for all Americans: with your vote in this election, I will end inflation. I will stop the invasion of criminals coming into our country. I will restore the American dream. You must stand up on Tuesday and say that Kamala Harris has done a terrible job. Kamala, you're fired," Trump said.
Ahead of the election, Republican voters are most concerned about the economy and immigration, while Democrats are also focused on the issue of abortion and the protection of democracy.
“Harris supports abortion rights, women's right to make their own decisions. I believe that she will ensure that a national ban on abortion will not be introduced during her term," said Democrat supporter Alicia Rau from Washington.
"Trump is the only presidential candidate who wants the best for the American people. And I support him 100 percent. This is the third time I've voted for him and as they say - third time lucky", says Chris Indelicotti from New York.
Which candidate will prevail in the elections is difficult to predict given that the race, at least judging by the polls, is very uncertain.
"There is no clear favorite in these elections. You could argue that the trend in the polls has been slightly more positive for Trump over the past few weeks, but not enough to make him the clear favorite…..Neither a Harris win nor a Trump win would be surprising. It would be surprising if in the end the result would not be so close," says Kyle Kondik, a political expert from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Close races, as Kondik reminds, are nothing new in American politics.
"There have been a number of presidential elections in recent years that were really close. The tightest were in 2000. Florida was decisive then, and the election was decided by a little more than 500 of the 6 million votes in that state. In the 2016 elections, the president was decided by about 78.000 votes in three states, and about 43.000 in three states in 2020."
The winner of the presidential elections in America is not determined by the majority of the total number of votes, but by the Electoral College, according to which a certain number of so-called electors are assigned to the winners in individual states.
Candidates must win at least 270 of the 538 electors who then formally declare themselves president, based on election results in the states that nominated them.
Because of this system, the outcome of the election is decided by only a small number of states for which it is not known in advance whether they will favor the Republicans or the Democrats. There are seven in this election - from the East to the South of America and according to the polls, the race is uncertain in each of those states.
States are also counting votes individually, so if the election ends up being as close as predicted, declaring a winner could take some time. This was also the case in 2020, when it was clear only four days after the election that the current president, Joe Biden, had won.
"The polls could be wrong and the result might not end up being as close as we thought. In that case, we could know who won by Wednesday morning. However, if things continue as they are now, this will likely be a tighter election than 2020. If that is the case, the outcome may hinge on who wins in Pennsylvania, which is a slow-counting state. And we may not know until Thursday, Friday or Saturday who the new president is," says Charles Stewart, professor of political science at the prestigious American university Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Projections of who is the new president in America are first given by the media, based on statistical models and unofficial vote reports, Stewart explains.
The states check the ballots and the results, followed by their confirmation and the formal declaration of the electors about the president. The process of confirming the results of the presidential election ends in Congress on January 6.
It was precisely this process that Trump's supporters tried to prevent when they attacked the congressional complex three years ago, spurred on by the former president and his allies' baseless claims of election fraud. Since then, however, certain measures have been introduced to prevent further violence.
"If Donald Trump loses again, the system will be put to the test again. Some things have changed since 2020, though. An important legislative change is the passage, on a bipartisan basis, of a new law that really streamlines the process from voter registration to congressional confirmation... The January 6 attack also showed officials how important election security measures are. . This includes the protection of the Congress from attacks, but also the state capitals on the day of the declaration of electors," says Stewart.
If Trump wins, Stewart is confident that his opponent and the Democrats will not challenge it unless, as he says, something truly unusual happens.
"There is a firm resolve among certainly Democrats and Republican leaders in most states to uphold the election results, regardless of who wins. However, especially if Trump wins".
Struggle for control of Congress
The election of the president is certainly the main event on Tuesday, November 5, but not the only issue on which voters will soon have their say. Among other things, it will decide which party will control the Congress for the next two years, given that all members of the House of Representatives or the lower house are elected who have a two-year term, that is, a third of the Senate or the upper house, where senators remain in office for six years.
Until now, the Democrats have controlled the Senate, and the House of Representatives has been controlled by the Republicans. Polls show that this could change in this election.
"Republicans should be able to win at least 51 seats in the Senate and take control from Democrats." There is a chance that the Democrats could keep the majority, but that seems unlikely, the Republicans could win more than 51 seats, which depends in particular on what happens in some key states in the Midwest. The race for the House of Representatives is like the presidential race, basically the chances are 50-50," said Kyle Kondik.
Who controls the Congress, which passes the laws, will also depend on the fulfillment of the promises that the candidates make to the voters, from immigration to health care.
Majorities in both houses are expected to be tight whoever wins them, says Professor Stewart. Power in Washington could also be divided - with one party controlling the White House and the other Congress, which would lead to new disputes, especially when it comes to the budget. Or if the Congress itself were to be divided again, which would further affect its effectiveness.
All this leaves the newly elected president with the opportunity to act independently, especially when it comes to foreign policy.
"Trump doesn't like Americans supporting the war in Ukraine and is skeptical of our alliances around the world. And I can easily imagine that he will withdraw aid to Ukraine and continue to attack NATO and other alliances, which we saw during his first term. We don't know how they will solve the Middle East, although in the short term they will probably step back from what the Biden administration was doing," says Professor Stewart and adds:
"Harris would be free to continue essentially what the Biden administration has been doing, which is to strengthen relations with our allies and to try to encourage European efforts for unity, particularly in opposing Russian ambitions. She would also be open to more aggressively countering Israeli efforts." , while tensions continue in the Middle East".
While the public is speculating about what the new administration's moves might be, this American election is also being held in the light of deep political polarization and the concern of many Americans, not only who will be elected, but also what will follow in the period after going to the polls.
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