Historian and professor Alan Lichtman stands by his September prediction that Vice President of the United States of America (USA) Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in the race for the White House.
Lichtman has correctly predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections using his "Keys to the White House" model.
This system evaluates the performance of the current administration through 13 factors, focusing on historical patterns, rejecting the idea that polls, campaign strategies or even voter demographics alone can determine the outcome of an election.
"The polls have no predictive value. They're all within the margin of error. In 2016, when I predicted a Donald Trump victory, that didn't make me popular in 90 percent Democratic Washington, where I teach at American University. All the polls went the other way. In fact, the most prominent pollster, the Princeton University Consortium, gave Hillary Clinton a 99 percent chance of winning," Lichtman told NDTV World
In national polls, Harris has a slight lead over Trump, but the race is really close.
"If I'm wrong, so be it. You know, I don't think one mistake will discredit my system, but if I'm wrong, then our democracy is in very serious danger. Democracy is precious, but it can be destroyed, and it almost always is destroyed from within. Unfortunately, the trend of this century is the decline of democracy around the world. I am worried about our country," said Lihtman.
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