The terms "blue shift" and "red mirage" describe trends seen during vote counting, particularly in recent US elections, due to differences in the way and timing of vote counting.
The American non-profit organization "Protect Democracy" explains these terms.
What is Blue Shift?
A blue shift occurs when the percentage of votes counted for Democratic candidates increases as more votes are processed. This shift can cause the difference in results to appear narrower or even reverse, as later votes tend to favor Democrats.
This phenomenon is mainly due to:
- How to vote: Election Day ballots (which are often counted first) are generally cast in person, while mail-in ballots are often counted later and may arrive after Election Day in some states.
- Voter trend: Democratic voters are more likely to vote by mail or cast conditional ballots, which take longer to verify and count. Republican voters, by contrast, are historically more likely to vote in person on Election Day.
What is Red Fatamorgana?
The red mirage describes the mirage in which Republican candidates appear to be leading on election night. This happens because in-person votes (which are counted first) often lean toward the Republicans.
As mail-in ballots, which typically lean Democratic, are counted later, the apparent Republican lead may shrink or disappear.
The term "mirage" emphasizes that these initial results can be misleading. For example, in the 2020 election, early leads for Trump in several key states shrunk as mail-in votes were counted, leading to expected Democratic gains due to voting patterns.
The 2020 election offers a perfect example
Due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic, the changes caused by the "blue shift" and "red mirage" phenomena were especially pronounced during the 2020 election, making it look like President Trump was leading in several key states on election night.
As additional votes became available, however, it became clear that these early advantages were exactly the "red mirage" that some pundits had predicted before the election.
Although this phenomenon was predicted, there were those who saw the change in results as evidence of irregularities. That is why communication about the nature of this phenomenon and its understanding is key to ensuring trust in the electoral process and broad acceptance of the results.
Changes in the way election results are counted and the order in which votes are counted are likely to continue in future election cycles. As the number of voting methods expands, the phenomenon of shifts and mirages will become a fundamental part of the election monitoring process.
Election processes will continue to evolve, and continued education about these concepts will help voters, analysts, and media more effectively navigate the complexities of modern elections.
Bonus video:
