This morning, the dollar jumped about 1,5 percent against the yen and the euro on the stock markets in Asia, boosted by hints of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential elections.
Around 03:00 GMT, the dollar rose 1,71 percent against the Japanese currency to 154,21 yen to the dollar and appreciated 1,67 percent against the European common currency to 0,9302 euros to the dollar.
While the feverish wait for the outcome of a very close election begins in the United States, the foreign exchange market reacted energetically to the announcements of the first American states in which the former Republican president won.
"Markets are starting to bet on Trump's return. He won by a larger margin than expected in Florida, a very populous state, which reinforces expectations of Republican results elsewhere," underlined Hugo Cuboi, strategist at Daiwa Securities. quoted by Bloomberg.
The US election is fueling trade: the dollar fell significantly a day earlier after the release of better polls for the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, and the sharp reversal came after the first polls after the start of voting.
Economists and investors expect Trump, if he wins, to put up new tariffs, cut taxes and deregulate the economy enough to cause an increase in the public deficit, then a rise in bond rates and, consequently, a rise in the dollar.
"During October, it is clear that the dollar, Asian currencies and US interest rates evolved in line with expectations from the US elections" and that the markets "will adjust today with new information on the outcome of the vote", say MUFG bank analysts.
Under a Trump presidency, "our scenario estimates that the dollar could strengthen by about seven to eight percent relative to the odds if Kamala Harris wins," they say.
Conversely, if Kamala Harris were to win, the correction could be brutal, "with the dollar weakening and export-oriented Asian currencies (economies) strengthening," such as Japan.
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