When Donald Trump first became US president, Chinese leaders responded strongly to his tariffs and harsh rhetoric, resulting in a trade war that has soured relations between the world's two largest economies.
This time, Beijing has been preparing for Trump's return by deepening ties with allies, strengthening its own technology sector and setting aside cash that could prop up the economy in the event of new tariffs threatened by Trump.
In this regard, experts expect some Chinese counter-measures, but Beijing's focus will be on exploiting the cracks between America and its allies and trying to reach some agreement to soften the blow on trade.
Zhao Minghao, an international relations expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, says China is unlikely to repeat the scenario of Trump's first term when the response to the tariffs was strong. He points out the message of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Trump, in which he called for cooperation, not confrontation, and emphasized the "stable, firm and sustainable relations between the two countries".
"Trump is no longer a stranger to Beijing, so he will respond in a measured way and try to communicate with Trump's team," Zhao said.
Chinese tech companies are now much less dependent on US imports, while the economy is weaker than it was in 2016 due to a major housing crisis and unsustainable debt. Growth is now around 5 percent, and previously it was 6,7 percent.
To make matters worse, Trump has promised to end China's preferential trade status and impose tariffs on Chinese goods of 60 percent - much higher than in his first term.
Zao notes that Beijing is ready for this scenario, but that he expects tariffs to be lower than announced in the campaign because such high rates would significantly increase inflation in the US.
But the threat of tariffs has unsettled manufacturers in the world's top exporter, as China sells $400 billion worth of goods to America annually, and America pays hundreds of billions of dollars for parts of Chinese products it buys elsewhere.
Li Mingjiang, a lecturer at the Rajaratnam School of International Affairs in Singapore, says China's economy will need additional stimulus as a result - with a $1,4 trillion package expected.
"It will be a serious blow to China's international trade, which will affect employment and budget revenues. China will probably have to give a bigger stimulus package to its economy," Li believes.
Charm offensive
To improve global trade, China has been on a diplomatic blitz offensive, strengthening both alliances and fending off enemies, and continuing tough talks with the EU - after the bloc imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
Last month, China ended tensions with India over a disputed border, in August it settled a two-year dispute with Japan over the release of radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant, and in June Premier Li Jiang visited Australia for the first time in seven years.
Shi and Li recently attended summits within BRICS, whose members make up a total of 35 percent of the world economy, and they were also at the summit in Shanghai, which gathers 10 countries and strengthens ties with the Global South.
"The first Trump administration did not show much interest in engaging in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia, which gave China the ability to operate in these markets without competition," says Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project.
And in Europe - the fact that Trump announces that he will reduce the role of the US in Ukraine opens up space for Beijing, some experts say.
"China will continue to try to reach out to the Europeans, the British, the Australians, even the Japanese, in order to deepen the gap between the US and countries in the North. But it is also part of a mission to balance foreign trade in favor of the Global South," Jean said. -Pierre Kabestan, expert from the University of Hong Kong.
Technological development
During the first trade war with China, Trump banned the export of high-tech goods to China and sanctioned companies including China's largest shipbuilder SMIC. This has forced Chinese tech companies to become more self-reliant.
Winston Ma, former director of the China Investment Corporation (CIC), points out that a big driver of the change was Trump's ban on component sales to Chinese telecommunications firm ZTE in 2018.
"That was scary from the Chinese perspective, so they started to prepare and think defensively," says Ma.
Not long after, Xi called for greater self-sufficiency in the fields of science and technology, which has allowed China to build key industries, including the development of artificial intelligence and space technology.
The result is the following: eight years ago, the Chinese government procured hardware and software components from only four domestic companies, and today from 169.
Chipmakers feel hurt, however, because Chinese companies cannot successfully supply global customers and lack access to modern chips.
Nazak Nikahtar, who worked at the Commerce Department under Trump, said she expects the US president-elect to be "even more aggressive about export policies to China" and expand the list of entities subject to restrictions.
Vincent Ma expects the restrictions to have an impact for some time as the US expands its sanctions regime on overseas suppliers.
"I think the coming years will be critical for the US-China technology rivalry," Ma concluded.
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