The next two years could be good for the United States—at least from the Republican point of view. In addition to the fact that their presidential candidate Donald Trump will enter the White House on January 20, this party, which moved to the right, won the majority in the US Senate, the upper house of Congress, on November 5, and will also control the lower house, the House of Representatives.
The so-called "unified government" has existed 48 times since 1857, when the system of two-party dominance as we know it today in the USA began. The Democratic Party had the opportunity to enjoy this kind of government 23 times, while the Republicans experienced it 25 times. during the same period, 38 times it happened that the parties had to share power over the White House and at least one house of Congress.
Izbori na halfi mandata, ili "midterms"
However, for the party that holds the presidency, control of Congress usually does not last long. "Although it is common for one party to be in control of Washington at the beginning of a new presidential term, only once since 1969 has that control continued past the midterm elections," writes Kathryn Schaefer for the Pew Research Center.
Midterm elections are held halfway between presidential elections. The only president who managed to maintain total control for four years was Democrat Jimmy Carter (1977–1981), but he subsequently lost the election and only one term left in power.
Presidents are aware that majorities in the entire Congress are often short-lived, points out Nolan McCarthy, a political scientist at Princeton University. "That's why I think President Trump will try to quickly implement some of his priorities," McCarthy said in an interview with DW.
Can Trump bypass the government approval process in the Senate?
The separation of powers system is as old as the United States Constitution. The founders established a system of "checks and balances" (checks and balances), on which the division of today's executive (president), legislative (Congress) and judicial (Supreme Court and other courts of the country) rests.
At the beginning of Trump's term, the majority in the Senate will be especially important, because the upper house of Congress must confirm all cabinet members nominated by the US president. Republicans will have a majority, but a narrow one - 53 to 47 votes. Some of Trump's cabinet nominees are quite controversial.
The future president would prefer to completely bypass that process. If he were to appoint members of the cabinet while the Senate is on recess, his candidates could take office without formal approval. On the X platform, Trump has already called on Republican senators to support this unusual procedure.
"We have never had a situation where such appointments were carried out to such an extent. Occasionally it happens with one or two positions, but an entire government appointed in this way would be cause for concern," explains McCarthy.
The key role of the Supreme Court
The future administration in Washington has another trump card: during his first term, Trump managed to create a Supreme Court with a strongly conservative character by appointing three judges.
Formally, the US Supreme Court is supposed to be impartial, but de facto presidents only elect people who share their political views. Of the nine members of the court, six support Trump.
Experts, like McCarthy, believe the president will try to implement his major promises administratively, through executive orders that do not need to pass Congress.
"The normal review process for these regulations is before the courts," McCarthy says. Given that the Supreme Court and lower courts are majority Republican, "it will make it easier for [Trump] to bypass judicial review."
"More power than the creators of the Constitution could have imagined"
This could happen on issues like mass deportations: the question of the legality of military conscription or changing citizenship rights for people born in the US. The Supreme Court could decide on these topics, explains Sarah Binder from George Washington University in an interview with DW.
She expresses concern that the Supreme Court in its current composition does not rely on laws, but often rules in favor of Republicans, as was the case with abortion rights or presidential immunity.
"That's what worries me," Binder says. "The court could support President Trump and allow him to grant far more power to the executive branch than the framers of the Constitution could have ever imagined."
Bonus video:
