Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile, on the national holiday Day of Dignity and Freedom on November 21.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that weapons capable of carrying nuclear charges were used for the first time in the war.
According to information published by the Ukrainian Air Force, the missile was launched from the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation. In addition, Russia launched air-ballistic missiles and several cruise missiles.
Some of them were destroyed, it was announced on the Telegram profile of the Ukrainian Air Force. Russia intensified its military activities after Ukraine used the Western long-range ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles in attacks on the Bryansk and Kursk regions of the Russian Federation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by changing Russia's nuclear doctrine, expanding the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles can carry nuclear warheads — raising questions about how real the threat of nuclear conflict is and how Ukraine's Western allies should respond — as VOA's Russian and Ukrainian services have investigated.
The state of combat readiness of the Russian nuclear forces
Monitoring the combat readiness of Russian nuclear forces is a priority for US intelligence services, explains Matthew Bann, a nuclear weapons expert and former adviser in the administration of President Bill Clinton.
"As far as we know, they are on standby. The United States of America would be delusional if they did not believe that Russia could use nuclear, if it wanted to use it," Ban believes.
The last time, according to Ban, American intelligence seriously considered the danger of Russia using nuclear weapons to strike Ukraine in late 2022 after a successful counteroffensive by Ukrainian armed forces in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
"There is an opinion that if Ukraine were to become a serious threat to Crimea, which there is a fifty percent chance of, that under those circumstances Russia would decide to use nuclear weapons," says John Erath of the Washington Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation.
Erat believes that the probability of such a thing is low. He reminds that during the past two years many, as he refers to them, red lines have been crossed for such a thing.
"We have witnessed threats, direct and indirect, with the use of nuclear weapons. There was talk of sending tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, additional Patriot systems and F-16 fighters to Ukraine. This time there was a change in the policy of using nuclear weapons on paper. It is a move that has not been taken before, but is in line with Russia's previous reactions to similar steps," Erat believes.
He indicates that Russia is using all the weapons at its disposal in the war against Ukraine.
"The Russian side has no moral restrictions on the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. And despite this, they never decided to use them. This means that they estimate that these weapons will not be useful to them," Erat believes.
Russia aims to stop military aid to Ukraine
Over the past two years, Russia has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons. Experts point out that the purpose of this is to intimidate the West.
"Russian policy consists of consistent attempts to force countries to stop supporting Ukraine, to prove that Ukraine cannot win and that Russia should be allowed to dictate the terms of the ceasefire," explains John Hardy, a security expert at the Washington Foundation. for the defense of democracies.
He is convinced that it is necessary for the West to continue supporting Ukraine with all necessary means.
"I believe that Ukraine should be helped in hitting targets in Russia, including providing more missiles. In order to achieve this, we need to provide Ukraine with different types of missiles," says Hardy.
However, Matthew Ban believes that the risk of nuclear war is the greatest since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when the Soviet Union deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba. Ban emphasizes that diplomacy should be used unequivocally in this case.
"There is little work on downplaying the danger, except for the constant mention of deterrence. But deterrence alone without diplomacy is dangerous," warns Matthew Bann.
John Erat recalls that at one time the United States of America and the Soviet Union managed to reduce the total number of nuclear missiles by 80 percent.
"During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union claimed that between 70.000 and 80.000 nuclear weapons were needed to prevent World War III. Over time, they realized that this figure was too high and it was reduced. Now there are about 15.000," notes that expert.
He also believes that additional reductions should not be considered, bearing in mind the tensions in international frameworks.
Moreover, as he says, there is a danger of increasing the number of nuclear warheads, due to the fact that the agreement between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive weapons - START-3 - expires in 2026.
It is the last and only nuclear arms reduction agreement between the two countries that is still in force.
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