While the bodies of fighters are still scattered on the battlefields, Hezbollah must bury its dead and provide support to its supporters who bore the brunt of the Israeli offensive, as the first step on a long and expensive road to recovery, according to Reuters, citing informed sources.
Hezbollah believes the number of fighters killed in the 14-month conflict could reach several thousand, with the vast majority killed since Israel launched its offensive in September, three sources familiar with the group's operations said, citing previously undisclosed internal estimates.
One source said the Iran-backed group may have lost as many as 4.000 people - more than ten times the death toll in the month-long war with Israel in 2006. So far, the Lebanese authorities have announced that around 3.800 people have died in the clashes, and this figure applies to both fighters and civilians.
Hezbollah emerges from the conflict shaken to the core, the leadership is still in shock over the murder of former leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, and his supporters have become homeless en masse due to the massive bombing of the southern suburbs of Beirut and the destruction of entire villages in the south of the country.
With the ceasefire taking effect, Hezbollah has an agenda that includes working to completely re-establish the group's organizational structure, analyzing the security lapses that allowed Israel to inflict so many painful blows, including mistakes in underestimating Israel's technological capabilities, three sources close to the group said. asked to remain anonymous during the interview with the British agency.
Hasan Fadalah, a senior Hezbollah official, claims that the priority will be "people".
"To provide them with shelter, to remove the ruins, to say goodbye to the martyrs, and in the next phase, to rebuild," he said.
The Israeli campaign was mainly aimed at Hezbollah's Shiite strongholds, where its supporters suffered heavy losses. This includes people who are still healing from the wounds caused by an Israeli attack on their mobile communication devices in September.
The World Bank estimates that damage to housing in Lebanon has reached $2,8 billion, with 99.000 homes partially or completely destroyed
"I have a brother who became a martyr, a brother-in-law who was wounded in pager explosions, and my neighbors and relatives are all either martyrs, or wounded, or missing," said Hovra, a woman from southern Lebanon. "We want to find our martyrs and bury them... we want to rebuild our homes," said Hovra, who was forced to flee her village due to an Israeli attack in September.
The Israeli offensive has displaced more than a million people, most of them from areas where Hezbollah is influential.
A senior Lebanese official, privy to the mindset within Hezbollah, said the focus group will be entirely focused on ensuring the return of people and rebuilding their homes: “Hezbollah is like a wounded man. Does a wounded man stand up and fight? A wounded man needs to heal his wounds”.
The official expects Hezbollah to analyze its policies, addressing all the key issues: Israel, its weapons and the domestic politics of Lebanon, where its armed capabilities have long been the subject of conflict.
Iran, which founded Hezbollah in 1982, has promised to help rebuild. The costs are enormous: The World Bank estimates that damage to housing in Lebanon has reached $2,8 billion, with 99.000 homes partially or completely destroyed.
A senior Lebanese official said Tehran has various ways to provide funds to Hezbollah, but did not elaborate.
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah, is urging wealthy Lebanese Shiites in the diaspora to send funds to help the displaced, two Lebanese officials said.
Officials also expected significant donations from Shiite religious foundations across the region.
The resistance will continue
Hezbollah has signaled that it intends to keep its weapons, dashing the hopes of the group's opponents in Lebanon who had predicted that war-induced pressures would finally force the group to hand over its weapons to the state. Hezbollah officials said the "resistance" - a general reference to their armed status - would continue, and the group said yesterday that its fighters were "fully equipped to deal with the aspirations and attacks of Israel's enemy" and that its forces would follow Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon "with the finger on the trigger".
Hezbollah opened fire on Israel in support of Palestinian ally Hamas on October 8, 2023. Israel launched an offensive against the group in Lebanon in September this year, with the aim of securing the return of 60.000 people who were evacuated from their homes in the north.
Despite the destruction, Hezbollah's Fadlallah said the resistance put up by its fighters in southern Lebanon, as well as increased rocket fire near the end of the conflict, showed that Israel had not achieved its goal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claims the campaign against Hezbollah has set the group back decades, eliminated its top leaders, destroyed most rockets, neutralized thousands of fighters and destroyed its infrastructure capacity near the border.
A senior US official said Hezbollah is "extremely weak" at the moment, both militarily and politically. A Western diplomat confirmed this assessment, saying that Israel had the upper hand and had almost dictated the terms of Hezbollah's withdrawal.
"Hezbollah is like a wounded man. Does a wounded man stand up and fight? A wounded man needs to heal his wounds"
The terms of the ceasefire agreed between Israel and Lebanon require Hezbollah to have no military presence in the area between the Israeli border and the Litani River, which flows into the Mediterranean Sea about 30 km from the border.
Hezbollah, which approved the cease-fire agreement, has not said how it intends to help enforce those terms, including whether it will hand over its weapons to Lebanese troops deploying south, or leave weapons for soldiers to find.
Israel complains that Hezbollah, which is deeply entrenched in southern Lebanon, has never implemented the same terms that were agreed as part of the end of the previous war in 2006. Israel claims the group was preparing a major attack on northern Israel, pointing to its military buildup on the border.
Andreas Krig of King's College London said Hezbollah retained significant capability.
"The actions of its key infantry fighters in southern Lebanon and the rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory in recent days show that the group is still very, very capable," he said.
"However, Hezbollah will be very busy with efforts to rebuild the infrastructure and also, most importantly, to provide the funds to do so," he added.
Debt repayment
Hezbollah has been handing out cash aid to war-affected people since the start of the conflict, paying $200 a month to civilians who remained in frontline villages and offering larger sums to residents forced to flee those areas.
Since the escalation began in September, Hezbollah has paid out about $300 a month to help displaced families, according to Reuters.
The group has made no secret of the military and financial aid it receives from Iran, which sent huge sums of money in 2006 to help the homeless and rebuild.
Hezbollah supporters say more aid is on the way. One of them, citing talks with a local Hezbollah official, said the group would cover a year's rent for the homeless, in addition to furniture costs.
Addressing the Lebanese people in an October sermon, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said: "The destruction will be repaid... repaying the debt to wounded, bloodied Lebanon is our duty...".
The World Bank has put the damage and losses for Lebanon at $8,5 billion in a preliminary estimate, a sum that the government, which is still reeling from a catastrophic financial collapse five years ago, cannot cover.
The Gulf states, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia helped foot the $5 billion reconstruction bill in 2006, when Hezbollah was at war with Israel. However, there is no indication yet that these Sunni-led Arab countries are ready to do so again.
Hezbollah did much of the rebuilding work after the 2006 war, thanks to funds from Iran. The project was led by Sayed Hashim Safiyedin, the Hezbollah leader who was killed by Israel 11 days after Nasrallah.
"For Hezbollah, it is a priority to secure the loyalty of the Shiite community. The destruction was enormous and it will affect the organization,” said Mohanand Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
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