As the world teeters on the brink of what could become the worst trade war since the 1930s, with international capital flows falling and cross-border trade and investment stagnating, there is one glaring exception to this collapse of globalization: international gangsters and organized criminals are in full swing. They are happy to take advantage of opportunities presented to them around the world, moving goods across borders, establishing international supply chains and hiring talent globally.
"I fear that the world is losing the battle against gangs and organized crime," says Jürgen Stock, who resigned on November 7 after ten years as Interpol's general secretary. "The growth in the scope, diversity and professionalism of organized crime is unprecedented."
At first glance, Stok's alarm seems unfounded. Most parts of the world that are not affected are gradually becoming less violent and more law abiding. In the first 20 years of this century, the global homicide rate fell by about a quarter, from 6,9 per 100.000 people to 5,2. Even in countries where concerns about crime have risen in recent years, such as America, violent crime rates have halved compared to the early 1990s.
However, Mark Shaw, director of the NGO Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, says that organized crime has been growing globally since the beginning of this century.
Three new developments are fueling this trend: the proliferation of technologies like encrypted apps and cryptocurrencies, which allow criminals to connect and move profits around the world in ways previously unimaginable; the spread of synthetic drugs that are cheaper and more potent than plant-based drugs; and the rise of adaptable, diverse multinational criminal groups.
Let's start with new technologies. Until about a decade ago, most emails and phone messages were not encrypted, meaning they could easily be read by police and intelligence agencies. Almost everyone now has access to secure messages, allowing gangsters to plot in secret. The darknet allows them to sell illegal goods, and the proliferation of cryptocurrencies to receive payments that are difficult to trace. Digital technology has also created a new criminal genre: cybercrime.
"Every innovation brings a new threat," says Ivo de Carvalho Pesinho, head of Interpol's crime-fighting unit. "People are starting to use ChatGPT to help them write scam messages". The data analysis company "Chainalysis" estimates that illegal income from fraud, theft and extortion will reach $7,6 billion in 2023. Not all the money went into the hands of criminals. North Korea is thought to operate a unit of 10.000 hackers and others who provide about half of its foreign currency earnings, mostly by stealing cryptocurrencies.
Due to the pandemic, a record number of people turned to the Internet, many of whom were unaware of the risks. They have also created new opportunities for criminals. "It had a huge impact in Southeast Asia," says Jeremy Douglas, former regional director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. The pandemic has emptied mob casinos in the Golden Triangle, accelerating the shift to online gambling. They soon discovered that they could build websites that allowed them to reach gamblers around the world, as well as organize scams - and launder their ill-gotten gains.
Another factor is the rise in drug use, fueled in part by the spread of synthetic drugs, which frees gangs from some geographic constraints, since they are not dependent on plants like coca or opium poppy that grow best in certain places. Methamphetamine seizures in East and Southeast Asia, for example, quadrupled between 2013 and 2022. Drug prices have more than halved since criminal gangs increased production, which in turn increased demand.
Globally, the number of people who use drugs increased by a fifth between 2010 and 2020, and the drugs they use are getting stronger. Fentanyl is 50 times stronger than heroin. However, even it is suppressed by new drugs, such as etonitasen, which is perhaps 500 times stronger than heroin.
A third important development is that gangs are becoming more resourceful. Diversification - which Interpol officials call "polycrime" - is becoming more common. In the past, criminal groups stuck to what they did best, which made it easier for the police to conduct investigations against them. Today, the same group may be involved in, for example, drugs, pirated software and wildlife smuggling. Some have entered new jobs that have opened up due to migration or the increase in the number of refugees, which has led to an explosion of human trafficking. For example, the powerful Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua makes almost all of its money from human trafficking, not drugs.
Globally, the number of people who use drugs increased by a fifth between 2010 and 2020, and the drugs they use are getting stronger. Fentanyl is 50 times stronger than heroin. However, even it is suppressed by new drugs, such as etonitasen, which may be 500 times stronger than heroin
Many gangs are also diversifying geographically. Although organized criminals have previously had transnational connections, this was because they followed diasporas. Triads can be found in many Chinese communities abroad, and the 'Ndrangheta, a mafia from Calabria, Italy, has long had branches in Canada, Australia and Western Europe. However, unions have begun to migrate in recent years to take advantage of new opportunities. Brazil's most prominent mafia clan, the First Capital Command, like the Habsburg Monarchy of the underworld, grew through alliances and diplomacy. It acts as a "regulatory agency of the criminal market," says Bruno Paes Manso of the University of São Paulo.
"It establishes rules to reduce conflicts, creates predictability in the market and provides a guarantee that the rules of the market will work". Today it has 40.000 members and around 60.000 partners in 26 countries. The 'Ndrangheta, meanwhile, has spread to 40 countries, with an annual turnover of around $50 billion - more than twice the GDP of mineral-rich Botswana, according to Interpol.
Or let's take for example the internationalization of Albanian gangs. Before the 1990s, criminals were restricted by the communist dictatorship. As barriers to travel and trade fell, so did restrictions on criminals. Today, Albanian gangs are key players in the underground of Ecuador, which is located between Colombia and Peru, the world's two largest producers of cocaine.
The FARC, a Colombian guerrilla group, and the Sinaloa cartel from Mexico have cooperated for years in controlling cocaine shipments from Colombia to the huge port of Guayaquil, from where they are sent to Europe and America. However, the demobilization of FARC fighters after the peace deal and the arrest of the leader of the Sinaloa cartel created a "perfect storm" that allowed other criminal organizations, including the Albanian mafia, to enter, says Renato Rivera of the Ecuadorian Organized Crime Observatory.
The result was dramatic. In 2018, Ecuador was among the more peaceful countries in South America, with a homicide rate of less than six per 100.000, similar to America. Last year, it was the most dangerous country on the continent, with a murder rate of 45 per 100.000.
Today, Albanian gangs are key players in the underground of Ecuador, which is located between Colombia and Peru, the world's two largest producers of cocaine.
Although drug crime generates the most violence, it is surprising that the crime with the highest annual turnover may be the trade in counterfeit and pirated goods. According to data from the OECD and the EU Intellectual Property Office, counterfeits accounted for 2,5 percent of world trade in 2013. If that share remains unchanged, it means that the trade was worth more than $760 billion in 2023, which is more than many estimates predict for the production, trade and sale of illegal narcotics.
Gangs are not only expanding into new areas of business and new territories, but some are seeking to change political direction. Last year, Colombian mercenaries were accused of murdering Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate who fought against corruption in Ecuador. In 2022, six Dutch nationals were arrested in Belgium on charges of planning to kidnap the Belgian Minister of Justice. And before the general elections in Mexico in June, 40 candidates were killed.
In some places, this strategy has been so effective that the gangs are essentially making the decisions. More than half of respondents in Latin America said there are organized criminals or gangs in their neighborhoods, and about 14 percent of the population — nearly 80 million people — live under some form of gang rule, according to University of Chicago researchers. An extreme case is Haiti, where for the first time in history the UN Security Council authorized a multinational force to restore order in a country taken over by organized crime.
Police have had some success, notably gaining access to two encrypted communications systems used by gangsters in 2018 and 2020. This has led to several thousand arrests worldwide. Also, Interpol has gotten better at intercepting cross-border transfers of some illegal funds.
However, the police remain essentially national, and suffer from what Stephen Kavanagh, Interpol's executive director of police services, calls a "territorial protection mentality". Territory, whether physical or otherwise, is closely guarded. What is needed is an approach to law enforcement that is as international as the gangs. However, the political will to create a new approach generally does not exist.
Before joining Interpol, Kavanagh was the chief of police in Essex, an English county with a population of 1,5 million. He notes with regret that the budget of his former police force was more than double that of Interpol.
Prepared by: A.Š., NB
Bonus video:
