Syria's 13-year civil war has been thrust back into the spotlight with a surprise offensive by rebels who have seized Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities and an ancient center of Middle Eastern culture and commerce.
Rebels launched a surprise offensive on November 26, attacking from areas north and northwest of Aleppo. They entered the city on November 29 and 30, driving out government forces and continued to advance in the south and southwest of Aleppo, capturing territories in Hama province.
It is the first time control of the city has changed since 2016, when government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, defeated rebels and recaptured the northwestern city for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The intervention of Russia, Iran and Iranian allies such as Hezbollah and other groups has allowed Assad to remain in power in the 70 percent of Syria he controls.
The fact that Islamist rebels captured Aleppo, the country's second largest city, within 48 hours of the start of the offensive dramatically exposes the instability in Syria, the fragility of Assad's grip on his devastated country and the dangerous consequences of the conflict.
"Assad is extremely vulnerable," Haid Haid, Syria analyst at Chatham House, told the Financial Times. "Everyone is waiting to see if the regime can mobilize its forces and allies to resist."
The government has vowed to retaliate, as hundreds of fighters from Iraqi militias backed by Iran crossed into Syria overnight to help Assad's forces fight insurgents, Syrian and Iraqi sources said yesterday. Lebanon's Hezbollah currently has no plans to join them, according to Reuters.
Russia, which deployed its air force to Syria in 2015 to help Assad, has been carrying out airstrikes to help the army, and the Kremlin said yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had spoken by phone with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian about the situation in Syria.
"Unconditional support was expressed for the actions of the legitimate authorities of Syria for the restoration of the constitutional order and the political, economic and social stability of the Syrian state," the Kremlin announced.
The attack on Aleppo was launched by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group. Formerly known as the Nusra Front, it was al-Qaeda's official wing in the Syrian war until it severed ties in 2016. HTS, under the leadership of Abu Mohamed al-Golani, has long dominated the Idlib region, a part of the northwestern port where the rebels have maintained a foothold despite advances Assad's forces on other fronts.
The US, Russia, Turkey and other countries designate this group as a terrorist organization.
Another rebel alliance has launched a separate offensive from areas north of Aleppo. These rebels are supported by Turkey and are organized under the banner of the Syrian National Army. A Turkish official told Reuters yesterday that Ankara did not give permission or support for the operation of Syrian rebel fighters in northwestern Syria.
The rebel offensive and takeover represents the most serious escalation of the conflict in years, adding to the death toll estimated in the hundreds of thousands since 2011, when the war escalated from the Arab Spring uprising against Assad's rule. Since then, more than half of the pre-war population of 23 million people have been forced from their homes, and millions have fled abroad as refugees.
The conflicts, as the Associated Press agency points out, increase the possibility of opening another violent front in the Middle East, at a time when the US is supporting Israel in the fight against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Despite the simmering conflict, the front lines in Syria have not moved for years, as the country is divided into zones where foreign powers have their troops on the ground.
Russia and Iran control areas under the authority of the Syrian government, which make up most of Syria. The US has forces in the northeast and east of the country, supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Turkey has troops in rebel-held parts of the northwest.
The regional balance of power has also been shaken by more than a year of conflict in which Israel has clashed with Iran and the militant groups it supports. In particular, Iran's ally Hezbollah has suffered heavy losses during the more than two-month war with Israel in Lebanon. Hezbollah, which signed a truce with Israel last Sunday, helped Assad retake Aleppo in 2016. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN it's no surprise the rebels are trying to take advantage of the new situation, given that they are Syria's main allies. governments, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah, distracted and weakened by conflicts, including regional conflicts and the war in Ukraine.
The State Department announced yesterday that US policy towards Assad has not changed. The statement stated that Assad is a "dictator with blood on his hands", but it was not specified whether Washington wants him removed from power.
The 2020 agreement between Russia and Turkey largely stabilized the situation in the northwest. However, Turkey has increasingly expressed dissatisfaction with Assad's failure to reach an agreement with the opposition to end the conflict.
The leader of Syria's main opposition abroad told Reuters that Syrian rebel fighters began preparations to capture Aleppo a year ago, but the operation was delayed by the war in Gaza and finally launched last Sunday when a ceasefire came into force in Lebanon.
The rebels were able to quickly capture the city and parts of neighboring Idlib province, partly because Hezbollah and other Iran-backed fighters were distracted by the conflict with Israel, Hadi al-Bahra told the British agency.
The United Nations Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, said the escalation of the conflict shows a collective failure to initiate a political process and called for substantive negotiations to find a way out of the conflict.
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