Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in an unenviable situation, but he can count on help. According to activists, Shiite militias from Iraq have entered eastern Syria to fight alongside government troops against the rebels. They launched an offensive on the city of Aleppo last week, pushing back the Syrian army and capturing the city. About 200 pro-Iranian fighters from Iraq reportedly crossed the border.
Assad can also count on the support of Russia. "Of course we continue to support Bashar al-Assad," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, as reported by Russian agencies. The Russian Air Force and the Syrian Air Force have already carried out attacks on the jihadist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) over the weekend.
HTS operates in conjunction with the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of Syrian opposition groups linked to Turkey. The fact that HTS was able to advance so violently is probably not just a result of the timing of the attack, says Andre Bank, a Syria expert at the Hamburg Institute for Global and Spatial Studies (GIGA). All of Assad's closest partners have been weakened, Bank added to DW: Iran and Hezbollah because of the war with Israel, and Russia through the war of aggression against Ukraine.
The progress of HTS is so violent primarily because the organization has managed to establish itself as the strongest force in western Syria, says Andre Bank. "HTS does not pursue a global jihad, it focuses exclusively on Syria, where it has established itself as a self-proclaimed government of 'salvation' or revival." At the same time, the group has recovered from the massive attacks on it in recent years," explains Bank. It also means, he says, that they could arm themselves again. "In the meantime, they are using new drones and missile systems. It can be assumed that they were delivered via Turkey," Bank believes.
One country, four territories
The advance of jihadists is primarily directed against the Assad regime, London-based journalist and analyst Manhal Bariš says in an interview for DW. However, he adds, the goal is also to weaken the presence of Iran, Hezbollah and their allied Shia militias from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.
Syria is currently divided into four different territories. Most of the country - about 60 percent - is controlled by Bashar al-Assad. A small part in the northwest is under the administration of HTS. In the north of Syria, Turkey has under its control two areas that directly border its territory. The northeast, on the other hand, is mostly ruled by Kurdish forces.
Turkish interests
Turkey has held large areas under its control since its first intervention in 2016. There, it is primarily fighting Kurdish forces, which are considered terrorist organizations in Ankara. The fact that it is now supporting the advance of the rebels can probably be explained by the fact that it wants to extend its influence to the Syrian northeast and the Kurdish-controlled areas there.
In addition, Andre Bank says, Erdogan's AKP government is worried about creating an even bigger buffer zone across the north. She would like to resettle there as many as possible of the estimated 3,5 million Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey, most of whom do not want to return to Assad-controlled areas for fear of reprisals.
Assad's rule: under pressure, but not yet threatened
It is currently unclear to what extent Russia is willing and able to help its protégé Assad again. Moscow, however, also likely has a strong vested interest in keeping the Syrian dictator in power, as that alone guarantees Russia's naval base at Tartus and Hmeymin Air Base. Both are located on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea.
However, Assad will have to rely on his own forces more than before, says Andre Bank. The rebellion is currently spreading, for example to parts of Ham, a city located about 125 kilometers south of Aleppo. But, to really pose a threat to Assad, the uprising would have to spread much further, say to the Daraa region in the very south of Syria. In 2011, the rebellion started there. In many parts of the country, there is dissatisfaction with the regime. "If it develops into an uprising, it could be dangerous for the Assad regime. But that is not the case yet," says Bank.
In addition, he adds, the jihadists are almost completely isolated internationally - unlike the Assad regime. The rebellion would pose a serious threat to the regime only if international support for Assad were to drop. "But that's a completely open question. Over the weekend, the Iranian foreign minister traveled to Damascus for talks. We have to wait to see the results," says Bank.
"Rebellion is life-threatening"
In addition, although the jihadists are not well received among large parts of the population, many Syrians have still moved to the area controlled by the jihadists, because they expect less reprisals from them than from the Assad regime. Syria expert Carsten Weiland recently said in an interview with DW that radical Islamists have "softened their ideology somewhat". "Of course, it's still important for them to have control and what's most important - over women, whose rights are rigorously limited," Weiland says. He points out that people who think differently are also at risk: "The rebellion is still life-threatening."
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