The advisers of the newly elected US President Donald Trump both publicly and privately present proposals for ending the war in Ukraine, which boils down to the fact that the country should cede large parts of its territory to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to an analysis published today by the Reuters agency.
The analysis is based on the statements of these advisors and conversations with several of them.
The proposals from three key advisers, including retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, whom Trump has selected as his envoy for Russia and Ukraine, share some common elements, including rejecting the idea of Ukraine's NATO membership.
Trump's advisers will try to force Moscow and Kiev to negotiate using the stick-and-string method, which includes stopping military aid to Kiev if it does not agree to negotiations, but also intensifying military aid if Putin does not agree to negotiations.
Trump repeatedly promised during the presidential campaign that he would end the war within 24 hours of his inauguration on January 20, if not sooner.
However, he has not yet explained how he intends to achieve this.
Analysts and former US national security officials express serious doubts that Trump can fulfill his promise - due to the complexity of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which is approaching its third year and is the largest armed conflict on the territory of Europe since the end of World War II.
When analyzed together, the statements of Trump's advisers nevertheless depict a possible American peace plan, in some basic features.
According to a national security official from the previous Trump administration (2016-2020), there are three main proposals. One comes from Kellogg, another from Trump's Vice President JD Vance, and the third comes through Richard Grenell, who was acting director of US intelligence under Trump.
Kellogg's plan, which he drafted with former US National Security Council official Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump this year, calls for freezes on the current front line.
According to that plan, which was first reported by Reuters, the US will continue to supply weapons to Ukraine only if it agrees to peace talks, and Moscow will be warned that Kiev will receive increased weapons monitoring if it refuses to negotiate.
In any case, Ukraine's membership in NATO will not be considered. If a deal were to be reached, Ukraine would receive US security guarantees, which could include the delivery of weapons.
JD Vance, who as a senator opposed any arms shipment to Ukraine, had the idea in September of a demilitarized zone along the existing front line that would be "fiercely fortified" to prevent further Russian incursions. Ukraine's admission to NATO would be impossible.
Grenell, Trump's former ambassador to Germany, advocated in July for the creation of "autonomous zones" in eastern Ukraine. At a round table, he said that it is not in the American interest for Ukraine to be accepted into NATO.
Although Grenell does not yet have a position in the new Trump administration, Trump continues to listen to his ideas on European issues, a former Trump foreign policy adviser told Reuters.
That source also said that Grenell was one of only a few people present at Trump's meeting with Zelensky in New York in September.
While on the one hand Zelenskiy signals his readiness to participate in negotiations, analysts and former US officials express doubt that Putin will be in a hurry to agree to negotiations, because he has the initiative on the front and believes that he will gain more by simply conquering territory.
They indicate that Putin shows no intention of giving up his demand to hand over the unconquered parts of four Ukrainian provinces, which he mostly brought under control and - annexed into Russia.
Some parts of the plan are likely to be rejected by Zelenskiy, who made the call for NATO membership part of his "Victory Plan", and the rejection of European allies and some American congressmen is expected.
Since the outgoing administration of US President Joseph Biden continues to send weapons to Ukraine, and some of the European NATO members express their willingness to continue delivering military aid to that country, Trump would thus be left without an effective lever to pressure the authorities in Kiev to sit down at the negotiating table. Kellogg's plan could also face resistance in Congress, where some of Trump's closest allies oppose additional military aid to Ukraine.
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