Russia has long presented Aleppo as a symbol of its own strength. It was the Russian military campaign that helped Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad capture the city at the end of 2016 after four years of fighting. Now Aleppo has fallen to the rebels in less than four days, followed by Hama. It is also a blow to the Kremlin.
"Russia is no longer able to support the Assad regime as it did ten years ago," says Ruslan Suleimanov, a Russian Orientalist at ADA University in Baku, Azerbaijan. Although Russia is conducting airstrikes against the rebels again, this is currently not enough to stop them, Suleimanov points out.
The main difference compared to 2016 is that since February 2022, Russia has been much more preoccupied with its attack on Ukraine. "Of course, the Russian presence in Syria began to decrease after that," Suleimanov points out.
So far, Russia has mostly been involved in airstrikes
The Russian military contingent in Syria has always been small. When Vladimir Putin decided to militarily strengthen Bashar al-Assad in the civil war in 2015, Russia primarily used its air power. Between 2.000 and 4.000 ground forces are estimated to have been sent into the field - Russia has never released any official information on this. Then a similar number of mercenaries were also sent, such as those from the Wagner group. It was they who were involved in ground fighting in Syria more often than regular soldiers. But they were also transferred to Ukraine in the meantime.
"The Russian strategy was for the Syrian, Iranian and Shiite militias to fight and provide support to the Russian forces, not the other way around," American analysts Michael Kofman and Matthew Rojansky assessed in their study of the Russian intervention in Syria.
Now, however, Iran and its allied militias such as Hezbollah are weakened in the conflict with Israel. The Islamist rebels of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) group used the opportunity to advance.
Some forces have probably been withdrawn from Syria
Can Russia fill that gap in ground forces? "It will be very difficult for Russia to increase aid to Assad without weakening its troops in Ukraine," Pavel Luzin, an expert on Russian armed forces from the American think tank Jamestown Foundation, told DW.
After the 2022 attack on Ukraine, Russia denied that it wanted to withdraw troops from Syria. However, it has reportedly transferred some fighter jets to Russia, according to reports. The Russian S-300 air defense system was also transferred to a Russian port near Crimea.
Russian soldiers in Syria have been regrouped and moved from smaller positions to larger bases. And the deployment of experienced mercenaries in the battles in Ukraine weakened Russia's position. Today, there are other Russian mercenaries in Syria, "but they are not specialized in combat missions, but, for example, in monitoring some oil production facilities", assesses Ruslan Suleimanov.
Moscow does not want to give up on Syria
But while the war in Ukraine is a clear priority for Moscow, Russia will not give up on Syria. "The Kremlin will certainly not abandon Assad," claims Sulejmanov.
There are two important locations for Russia. The naval base in Tartus ensures that Russia has access to the Mediterranean Sea, and the Khmeimim air base allows Moscow to operate throughout the region.
Syria is also important for the Kremlin because it wants to maintain the image of a superpower. After the unsuccessful Western interventions in Iraq and Libya, Russia wanted to present itself as a factor of stability in the region - and thus Moscow successfully established itself as one of the players in the Middle East.
Better to negotiate than send new troops
Russia's initial reactions to the rebel offensive show that it would prefer not to send additional military resources to Syria. However, Russia still carries out airstrikes more and more often. According to the Russian Telegram channel "Rybar", General Alexander Chaiko, who previously commanded the Russian forces in that country, also arrived in Syria.
At the same time, Russia is seeking contact with other powers involved in the conflict, especially Turkey, which stands to benefit the most from the rebel advance. Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the representatives of Russia, Iran and Turkey should meet this coming weekend.
"There are very difficult and very stressful negotiations ahead for the Kremlin, which is already spending so much nerves, energy and resources on Ukraine," says Ruslan Suleimanov. Now the Kremlin will have to use some of those resources for Syria.
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