It was no surprise to the Turkish public that the conflict in Syria had flared up again. For more than two months, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his right-wing nationalist ally Devlet Bahçeli have been talking almost exclusively about changes in power relations in the Middle East and possible negative consequences for Ankara.
He especially refers to possible changes in favor of the Kurds in Syria. In the northeastern region of Rojava, the Kurds have established an autonomous administration since the beginning of the civil war - which has long been a thorn in Ankara's side.
The Turkish government is watching other developments in the Middle East with concern: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's allies, Hezbollah and Iran, have been weakened by Israel's attacks.
The Syrian regime's other protégé, Russia, is increasingly focused on the war in Ukraine. Although Moscow has military bases in Syria, according to Istanbul security expert Burak Yildirim, there were 50 Russian military planes there before the war in Ukraine. Currently, only 13 of them remain, of which only seven are operational.
In addition, the US plans to refocus its presence in the region. How it will look under the future president Donald Trump, whether the US will withdraw its soldiers from Iraq and Syria and what consequences it could have for the region - remains unclear.
Offensive against Assad
The Syrian rebels realized that this was an opportunity for them, and on November 27 they launched a major offensive against the Assad regime. In just a few days, they conquered the second largest city in Syria, Aleppo, and are currently expanding their attacks on neighboring cities. They are led by the Islamist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the regional branch of Al Qaeda, which has been on the US list of terrorist organizations since 2018.
According to observers, Ankara was informed about the jihadist offensive. Without her approval or even support, Assad's opponents would have no chance, Middle East expert Michael Luders told Deutschlandfunk.
"Ankara certainly not only knew about this attack, but also supported it militarily. The rebels, of course, need the appropriate types of weapons, which they can only get from Turkey due to their geographical location."
The Idlib region in northwestern Syria, from which the rebels launched their attacks, is virtually hermetically sealed from all other sides.
The harshest cilij su Kurdi
Already at the beginning of the civil war in Syria, Ankara sided with the rebels and cut off diplomatic relations with Damascus. Erdogan has recently tried to restore communication, but Assad has rejected those attempts: until Turkey withdraws its troops from northern Syria, normalization of relations is not possible.
Turkey, however, is not ready to withdraw from northern Syria. Ankara calls the occupied areas a "security zone" and supports an Islamist militia known as the "Syrian National Army" (SNA) with which it jointly controls the territory.
Ankara's main goal in the region is the overthrow of the Kurdish autonomous administration in the northeastern Rojava region. The Democratic Unity Party (PYD), an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), holds power there.
There are currently two important rebel groups in the conflict area: one led by the jihadist HTS and the other supported by Turkey - the SNA. According to Turkish Middle East expert Erhan Kelesoglu, the SNA launched an offensive against the Kurds immediately after the jihadists' success in Aleppo.
Ankara denies involvement
"Turkey would never support actions that would cause a new wave of refugees," Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said.
Since the beginning of the civil war, Turkey has received about 3,5 million Syrian refugees, but the attitude towards them is becoming increasingly negative, especially due to the economic crisis.
In the last parliamentary and local elections, the issue of migration played a key role and put Erdogan under great pressure. He now wants to return as many refugees as possible to Syria and for this purpose to establish a buffer zone in the north of the neighboring country. Erdogan recently reiterated that Turkey stands by its plan to control a 30- to 40-kilometer-wide strip in northern Syria.
How much control does Ankara have over the SNA?
But would Erdogan cooperate with the jihadists for this?
According to Yildirim, the Ankara-backed SNA does include jihadist militias. However, the control over this group is in the hands of the rebels who are in turn managed by Turkey.
"And their actions mostly take place according to Turkey's plans," says Yildirim.
And according to Turkey's current plans, a fight between the rebels themselves is not foreseen.
"Both HTS and SNA want the fall of Assad," says security expert Yildirim.
They could later divide the conquered territories among themselves.
Since the weekend, Islamists close to Turkey have also recorded successes against the Kurds. The SNA, for example, has taken control of the Tal Rifat area and is planning attacks on other neighboring Kurdish towns.
Although the Turkish government is currently supporting the offensive militarily, it is trying to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, Iran and the Assad regime, explains expert Kelesoglu. For now, Turkey will wait and watch to what extent Ankara-aligned troops will suppress the Kurds and occupy their territories.
Turkey has been bombing Kurdish areas since 2016.
Since 2016, the Turkish army has been bombing Kurdish areas as part of major military operations. Turkish soldiers are stationed in places like Jarabluz, al-Bab, Azaz, Tal Abyad and the rebel stronghold of Idlib.
Human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch, accuse Ankara of war crimes. In a report published in March, the organization accused Turkey of kidnappings, looting, torture and sexual violence: Turkey bears responsibility for grave human rights violations and possible war crimes committed by its troops and local armed groups it supports in the occupied areas of northern Syria.
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