The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after rebel forces seized Damascus this weekend, recalled uprisings in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen, each of which later led to civil war or the establishment of new authoritarian governments. Despite the fact that many analysts see a real risk of instability and extremism in Syria, the citizens of that country hope that their fate will be different from most others in the region, writes the "New York Times".
While opposition groups in other countries achieved success relatively quickly, the Syrian revolution turned into a thirteen-year civil war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, displaced millions and divided the country into rival feudal regions, the paper reminds.
The sudden fall of Assad finally allows Syrians to feel the joy their compatriots experienced more than a decade ago in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen, four Arab countries where dictators were toppled much more quickly.
Although those four countries provided a kind of recipe for the success of the revolution itself, their development path after the Arab Spring represents a kind of warning, states "The Times" and adds that in Egypt and Tunisia there are strongmen in power who stifled efforts to build pluralistic democracies. In Libya and Yemen, rival militias battle for control, leading to civil war and the dismemberment of both countries.
"There is a strong fear inside and outside the region of a power vacuum that could be created by the sudden fall of Assad," said Abdelaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center. A senior Western diplomat in the region, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that because the rebel forces are not unified, there is no plan to govern Syria, a complex country divided into various sects and ethnic groups, each of which has its own regional power base.
Alistair Bart, a former British government minister who helped guide Middle East policy during the Arab Spring, told The Times that "people who have survived the last 13 years deserve to enjoy the present moment before they start worrying about the future." However, he added that based on experience in the region since 2011, "we want to hope for the best, but also to prepare for the worst."
The dynamics in Syria make the transition of power particularly tense and challenging, the American newspaper points out. The Islamic rebel alliance that led the rapid advance towards Damascus, Hayat Tarir al-Sham (HTS), is one of several rival opposition groups that must now reach an agreement on how to govern Syria in the post-Assad era. Although HTS is currently the most influential group in Syria, it competes for influence with another Turkish-backed group based in northern Syria, as well as the US-backed Kurdish-led secular alliance in eastern Syria. Southern Syria is dominated by local rebel groups, including militias led by the Druze minority.
Once linked to Al Qaeda, HTS tries to present itself as a moderate movement that seeks to preserve the rights of Syria's many minorities, including Christians, Druze and Alawites, the Shiite sect that formed Bashar al-Assad's base. During the capture of Aleppo, the rebel alliance promised the large minority populations that they would preserve their way of life.
Hassan Hassan, a Washington-based expert on Islamist groups in the Middle East, told Reuters that concerns among those minority groups persist now that the rebels have taken Damascus. "There is uncertainty about what will happen next, especially in terms of religious influence and how (Islamic) laws will evolve," he said.
Analysts warn that the civil war could be prolonged if HTS does not fulfill its promise.
"You can't just tell people they're safe: they have to believe it," Bart said. "That's why the behavior of HTS, and everyone who currently has weapons in the liberated cities, is of crucial importance."
Foreign powers such as Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US, which support various sides in the conflict, are also expected to seek to maintain their influence in the new era, which could further prolong the internal conflicts in Syria. The role and intentions of the former generals and Assad's security chiefs also remain unclear. They could play a key role in any new power struggle, as their counterparts did in countries where leaders were ousted in 2011-12. year.
Because of the complexity of internal dynamics in Syria, some believe that Assad's departure is likely to deepen the rifts created during the 13-year war, rather than heal them.
On the other hand, some analysts claim that precisely because of the war experience, Syrians may be able to achieve what their compatriots in Egypt and other countries could not. They believe an orderly transition is possible, arguing that the well-established government institutions in Damascus still have the ability to carry out their duties. They also point to the rebels' experience in managing enclaves across Syria, which in some cases they managed to manage for more than a decade.
Still, many Syrians currently say they want to bask in the euphoria of Assad's departure. He led a cruel government that put hundreds of thousands of opponents in dirty, overcrowded prisons, where thousands were tortured and killed.
"No matter what happens next, it will not be worse than Bashar al-Assad's regime," said Hashem Alsuki, a former Syrian statesman who was imprisoned and tortured at the beginning of the war, and later sought safety in Europe with his family. "Yes, there are concerns about the future," Alsuki added in a telephone conversation with The New York Times. "But at the same time, I have faith that we will overcome this stage. Because the Syrian people have learned a lot during these 13 years".
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