Will Russia, after the victory of the Islamist rebels in Syria and the escape of President Bashar al-Assad, lose its two military strongholds in that country? The question remains open, and the answer is not yet in sight. The Russian president's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on Monday (December 9) that it was "too early" to talk about it. Russian media reported that the Islamists who took power in Syria, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, gave Moscow guarantees for the security of military bases. There is no confirmation from other sources. Russia operates two bases in Syria - the Tartus naval base on the Mediterranean Sea, which is a legacy of the Soviet Union, and the Khmeimim military air base, established in 2015.
"At the moment, the movements of transport planes can be seen in Hmejmim, but not on a scale that would indicate a complete evacuation," says Gustav Gressel, a former expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank. Russian ships are currently in the Mediterranean Sea "on maneuvers", but not far from Tartus. "I believe that Russia is negotiating behind the scenes on how to keep the bases in Syria," Gressel told DW. "If they had left them, an evacuation would already be underway."
The naval base in Tartus is more important?
Austrian military historian, Colonel Markus Reisner, believes that the naval base in Tartus is "strategically more important" for Russia, as it enables "the deployment of forces in the Mediterranean". Khmeimim Air Base was needed by Moscow to support the Assad regime against the rebels. "But there is no need for that now," Reisner explains.
British political scientist Mark Galeotti, author of the book "Putin's Wars", believes that both bases are "very important for Russian activities in the Mediterranean and Africa". "It's interesting how quickly they tried to reach an agreement with HTS," adds Galeotti. More recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the group "terrorists," but last weekend Moscow began calling them "rebels." Galeotti notes that Moscow's tone toward Islamists in Syria has become "much softer," even before Assad's fall.
What can Moscow offer the rebels?
"Russia is probably hoping for a deal with HTS," says Galeoti. But what can Moscow offer? The rebels, although they have the support of Turkey, "do not want to be Turkish pawns" and they need allies and relations with other countries, he believes. Russia could play an important role here. "The Russians are quite cynical and pragmatic, which gives HTS an opportunity to diversify its dependence on Ankara," adds the British expert. He also reminds that Russia is not only present in Syria militarily, but also has close economic ties.
Burcu Ozcelik, an expert on the Middle East at the British institute RUSI, does not believe that the Syrian rebels will quickly comply with Russian wishes. "It is a big question mark that HTS will rush to be perceived as an ally of Vladimir Putin or to give the green light for a long-term Russian military presence on the Syrian coast of the Mediterranean Sea, especially considering that Assad has been granted asylum on Russian territory ", Ozcelik estimates. She predicts long negotiations in which the regional actors, Russia and Iran, will "try to adjust their foreign policies towards Syria".
Where will the Russian army go from Syria?
If the Russian army does leave Syria, even gradually, where might it go? "They don't have good options," says Mark Galeotti. In his opinion, Syria under Assad was very dependent on Moscow, and there is no such place in the region.
Among the possible options, Libya is most often mentioned, where Russia maintains contacts with General Khalifa Haftar. Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group fought on his side. Western media reported on Russia's alleged intention to establish a naval base in Libya, which could be in Tobruk, speculates Markus Reisner.
Mark Galeoti believes that this option will not be realized quickly, because there is no infrastructure there. The same applies to Sudan, with which Moscow has been negotiating a naval base on the Red Sea for years. "Wherever they go - Libya, Mali, Sudan - they will not have conditions like in Syria," says the expert.
Limited effects on the war in Ukraine
The following question also arises: if Russia withdraws its troops from Syria, what does this mean for the war against Ukraine? "If we're going to be honest, the effects are negligible," Galeoti believes. According to him, the number of soldiers that Moscow can transfer from Syria to the Ukrainian front is insignificant.
And Gustav Gressel claims: "The good news for Ukraine (from Syria) is limited." Russia has neither the ability nor the desire to open a second front while waging an all-out war against Ukraine. "From the weakening of Iran due to Israeli strikes, Ukraine will not feel a tangible benefit," believes the expert. The only concrete positive consequence for Kiev could be that "some people in the West become braver", but possibly also that "Putin's weakness leaves an impression on Trump", Gressel concludes. But even that remains an open question for him.
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