After 13 years of civil war, Syrian opposition militias sensed an opportunity to weaken President Bashar al-Assad's rule when, about six months ago, they conveyed plans for a major offensive to Turkey and believed they had received its tacit approval, two sources familiar with the process said. planning.
The operation, which was launched a little more than two weeks ago, achieved surprisingly quick success in achieving its initial goal - capturing Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo. From there, in a little more than a week, the rebels' allies reached Damascus and on Sunday ended five decades of rule by the Assad family.
The lightning advance relied on almost perfectly arranged circumstances for the forces opposed to Assad: his army was demoralized and exhausted; its main allies, Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah, were severely weakened by the conflict with Israel; and his other key military ally, Russia, was distracted and losing interest.
There is no way that the rebels could have continued with the plan without first informing Turkey, which has been the main ally of the Syrian opposition since the very beginning of the war, according to sources, a diplomat from the region and a member of the Syrian opposition.
Turkey has troops on the ground in northwestern Syria and is backing some of the rebels who have intended to take part, including the Syrian National Army (SNA) - although it has designated the main faction in the alliance, Hayat Tarir al-Sham (HTS), as a terrorist organization.
The rebels' bold plan is actually the brainchild of HTS and its leader Ahmad al-Shara, better known as Abu Muhammad al-Golani, the diplomat said. Because of his former ties to Al Qaeda, Golani has been designated a terrorist by Washington, Europe and Turkey.
However, over the past decade, HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front, has tried to soften its image while running a quasi-state in the territory around Idlib, where experts say it levied taxes on commercial activities.
The government of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, which reached an agreement with Russia in 2020 to reduce the conflict in northwestern Syria, has long opposed such a major rebel offensive, fearing it could lead to a new wave of refugees crossing its border.
But the rebels noticed a hardening of Ankara's stance toward Assad earlier this year, the sources said, after Assad rejected new attempts by Erdogan for a political solution to the military stalemate, which has divided Syria between the regime and a host of rebel groups with various foreign allies.
A Syrian opposition source said the rebels had shown details of the planning to Turkey, after Ankara's attempts to engage Assad failed.
The message was: "Your way hasn't worked for years - so try ours. You don't have to do anything, just don't intervene."
Reuters could not determine the exact nature of the communications. Hadi Al-Bahra, the leader of Syria's internationally recognized opposition abroad, told Reuters last Sunday that HTS and SNA had "limited" joint planning ahead of the operation and agreed to "cooperate, not clash." He added that the Turkish army was aware of what the armed groups were doing and what they were discussing.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in Doha on Sunday, said Erdogan's efforts in recent months to reach an agreement with Assad had failed and that Turkey "knew something was up."
But Turkey's deputy foreign minister, Nuh Yilmaz, told a Middle East conference in Bahrain on Saturday that Ankara was not behind the offensive and had not given its consent, stressing that it was concerned about instability.
Turkey's foreign and defense ministries did not directly respond to questions from Reuters regarding a possible agreement between HTS and Ankara on the operation in Aleppo. Asked how much Turkey was aware of preparations on the front, a Turkish official said HTS "does not receive orders or instructions from us (and) does not coordinate its operations with us."
The official added that "in that sense" it would not be correct to say that the operation in Aleppo was carried out with the approval or green light of Turkey. Turkey's MIT intelligence agency did not respond to a request for comment.
The rebels struck when Assad was at his weakest. Distracted by wars on other fronts, its military allies Russia, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah have failed to mobilize the decisive firepower that has sustained it for years. The weak Syrian armed forces could not resist. A regime source said tanks and planes had run out of fuel due to corruption and looting - an indication of the extent of the Syrian state's exhaustion.
Turkey is the biggest foreign winner here. Erdogan proved to be the one who was on the right - or at least the winning - side of history because his mediators in Syria won, said Birol Baskan
Morale in the military has seriously declined over the past two years, said the source, who requested anonymity for fear of reprisals.
Eron Lund, a fellow at Century International, an organization that focuses on the Middle East, said the HTS-led coalition was stronger and more coherent than any previous rebel force during the war, "and much of that is due to Abu Mohammed al-Golani ". However, he pointed out that the weakness of the regime was the decisive factor.
"After losing Aleppo that way, regime forces never recovered, and as the rebels advanced, Assad's army became weaker and weaker," Lund said.
The speed of the rebel advance, with Hama falling on December 5 and Homs falling on Sunday at the same time government forces lost Damascus, has exceeded expectations.
"There was a chance, but no one expected the regime to fall this quickly. Everyone expected some fight," said Basam al-Quwatli, chairman of the Syrian Liberal Party, a small opposition group based outside Syria.
One US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while Washington was aware of Turkey's general support for the rebels, the US was not aware that there was any tacit Turkish approval for the Aleppo offensive. The White House National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Turkey's role.
US President-elect Donald Trump said on Sunday that Russia abandoned Assad, leading to his downfall, adding that Moscow should never have protected him and then lost interest over a war in Ukraine that should never have started .
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday highlighted his country's role in weakening Hezbollah, which, sources told Reuters, withdrew its remaining troops in Syria on Saturday.
Sources familiar with Hezbollah's troop deployments said the Iran-backed group, which backed Assad at the start of the war, had already withdrawn many of its elite fighters from Syria over the past year to support the conflict with Israel.
Israel has dealt heavy blows to Hezbollah, particularly after it launched an offensive in September, killing the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah and many of its commanders and fighters.
The rebel offensive in Syria began on the same day a ceasefire in the Lebanon conflict took effect on November 27. Sources close to Hezbollah said the group did not want to engage in major battles in Syria while focusing on the long road to recovery from the heavy blows.
For the rebel alliance, Hezbollah's withdrawal represents a valuable opportunity. "We just wanted a fair fight between us and the regime," said a Syrian opposition source.
The fall of Assad is a major blow to Iranian influence in the Middle East, coming so soon after the assassination of Nasrallah and the damage Israel inflicted on Hezbollah.
Turkey, on the other hand, now appears to be the most powerful foreign policy actor in Syria, with troops on the ground and access to rebel leaders.
In addition to securing the return of Syrian refugees, Turkey's goals include limiting the power of the US-backed Syrian Kurdish groups that control large swathes of northeastern Syria. Ankara considers them terrorists.
At the beginning of the offensive, members of the Turkey-backed SNA captured large swaths of territory, including the town of Tel Refat, from US-backed Kurdish forces. On Sunday, a Turkish security source said the rebels had entered the northern city of Manbij after pushing back the Kurds.
"Turkey is the biggest foreign winner here. Erdogan has shown himself to be on the right - or at least the winning - side of history because his proxies in Syria won," said Birol Başkan, a political scientist from Turkey and former non-resident scholar at the Institute for east.
Prepared by: NB
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