The rapid fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria will change the country's relations with its neighbors, after the successful advance of the Islamist paramilitary Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), translated as "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant".
For five years, the HTS paramilitary militia ruled the last major stronghold of the opposition in the Idlib region in the northwest of the country. HTS is now focusing on consolidating power in the capital Damascus, and the question is whether it will be able to rule the entire country, especially with the presence of numerous other rebel groups that also want a share of power.
"Arab leaders will not like the collapse of Syrian stability," wrote Richard LeBaron, senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.
For years, Assad's key allies have been Russia, Iran and Hezbollah - backed by Iran. The Arab League, a group of 22 countries, restored ties with the Assad regime in May 2023 after 12 years of isolation due to its brutal treatment of the local population during Syria's civil war.
Qatar could take the initiative for reconstruction
According to Lebaron, among Syria's Arab neighbors, only Qatar, which has resolutely opposed the Assad regime, could take the initiative in rebuilding the devastated, fragmented and economically weakened country.
The new leaders are hoping for the lifting of international sanctions, but it remains to be seen which other actors, besides Qatar, might be willing to lend support to Syria.
The HTS group, previously linked to Al Qaeda, was designated a terrorist organization by the United States in 2018.
However, its leader Abu Mohamed el Golani recently told the US TV network CNN that he and other leaders of the group have evolved over the years in their views and understanding of Islam. He claimed that the extreme views of their youth became more moderate over time.
On Monday, the AP news agency reported that Golani said HTS would not impose dress codes on women, nor would it interfere with other personal freedoms. In recent years, that militia has shown tolerance towards religious minorities such as Christians and Druze in the territories under its control.
Strained relations with neighbors
Syria's neighbors, including Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel, have strengthened their borders and defenses along them.
"It is still too early to fully assess the consequences for the region, but security issues dominate the reactions of the neighboring states," Nanar Havah, senior analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group, told DW.
Havah also reminds that Israel welcomes the fall of the regime in Syria, because Assad was a key ally of Iran and Hezbollah. Nevertheless, as he adds, Israel "continues to implement security measures, including those in the area of Quneitra and Mount Hermon, where it has established a buffer zone along the border."
"At the same time, Israel used the opportunity to militarily weaken Assad's successors by bombing military targets, including air defenses and the Al Mazeh airport in Damascus," added Havah.
The Bloomberg media platform reports that on Sunday, American aircraft also hit 75 targets of the extremist group "Islamic State" (IS) in central Syria, and President Joe Biden warned that the ouster of Assad could open the door to the resurgence of Islamic extremism.
About 900 US troops are currently stationed in Syria to prevent the resurgence of IS. They also support and train the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in the northeast of the country. Analysts say that HTS and IS do not have common goals, as HTS wants to control Syria and does not seek to form a "global caliphate".
Political stabilization of Syria?
Analysts point out that, regardless of the regional consequences, the new rulers of Syria will have to focus on political stabilization if they want to be recognized by Turkey, the European Union and the United States.
"It is very likely that all of these entities will recognize the new HTS government provided it is a moderate administration that will refrain from conflict with the Kurdish YPG and will not support Hezbollah or Hamas," said Julien Barnes-Duckay, director of the Middle East Program. and North Africa in the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
"Given their unexpected success and the quick ouster of Assad, the opposition is likely to accept those terms in exchange for aid and recognition," he added.
Burcu Ozcelik, an expert at London's Royal Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI), specializing in security issues in the Middle East, tells DW that - although "Syria has little experience with democratic institutions and faces a high risk of disorder and even territorial fragmentation " - this could be the "right moment" that can bring "the beginning of a political solution".
According to her opinion, it is also possible to imagine the implementation of UN Resolution 2254, which calls for free and democratic elections in Syria.
"It will be crucial to make the process as inclusive as possible, with minimal outside interference, in order to support the indigenous Syrian agenda," Ozcelik said.
Return of the displaced
After Assad's overthrow, the Syrian population started to move. It is now possible to enter those parts of Syria that were previously inaccessible. This is also the case in the Idlib region, with about four million mostly displaced Syrians, who have been living under the control of HTS for the past five years.
"We have recorded the arrival of over 370.000 people in Idlib from other provinces," David Carden, the UN's deputy regional humanitarian coordinator for Syria, told DW.
"The displaced situation is changing, as people are returning home," Carden added, stressing: "We remain committed to helping the most vulnerable in Syria in any way we can."
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