"We have no territorial claims in Syria. We just want to ensure that people get their land back. We marched into Syria to end the rule of the tyrant Assad."
With these words, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan justified the military intervention in Syria in 2016.
However, interests were hidden behind the lofty words of the Turkish president. From the first day of the war in Syria, Ankara supported the armed opposition and resolutely insisted on the overthrow of the dictator Bashar al-Assad.
Five years later, Turkey established a permanent military presence in the Syrian rebel stronghold of Idlib.
Today, Turkey is strategically considered the biggest winner in Syria, while Russia and Iran are the biggest losers: Moscow was the most important ally of the Assad regime, and Tehran supported it by sending paramilitary forces.
"Compared to the situation two weeks ago, now it can be said that Turkey has definitely won in Syria," said Zaur Gasimov, an expert on Turkish-Russian relations at the German-Turkish University in Istanbul.
According to him, Ankara will cooperate closely with the future government of Syria. "Turkey will be heavily involved in reconstruction and remain a major investor in war-torn Syria."
Gasimov believes that Turkey will profit economically from the reconstruction of Syria, especially through the involvement of its construction companies.
Political analyst Berk Esen from Sabanci University in Istanbul says: "Although Turkey's policy towards Syria has long been considered a failure, Erdogan has always said that Assad will fall one day. Now they will get political points on that."
Indirect support?
"Turkey played a key role in the last offensive. In the new Syria, Ankara will use it to expand its sphere of influence," Berk Esen is convinced.
Turkey supports the Syrian National Army (SNA) and controls large parts of northern Syria. It has also developed certain ties with the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), although Ankara denies any involvement in their offensive.
Although Turkey does not officially support HTŠ - and even considers it a terrorist organization - it helped some paramilitary forces from the north of Syria, which participated in the offensive.
"It is legitimate to assume that Turkey is indirectly supporting HTŠ militarily," says Middle East expert Andre Bank from the GIGA Institute in Hamburg.
"HTŠ recently acquired new weapons, including drones and missile systems. It can be assumed that it comes from Turkey," adds Bank.
His colleague Simon Mabon from the University of Lancaster is more cautious: “It's a non-transparent topic. "We don't know exactly to what extent Turkey really supported this offensive," says Mabon.
Turkey, a NATO member, has good relations with Russia and Iran, which regularly irritates Western allies.
However, Gasimov does not expect a break in relations between Moscow and Ankara due to recent events. He predicts that bilateral relations will further deepen: "The fall of Assad makes Turkey even more important for Russia."
The future of the Kurds?
Turkey's official goal in northern Syria is to prevent the creation of a Kurdish territorial unit. Ankara fears that a Kurdish state could emerge in the region.
Currently, Turkish-backed forces are operating against Kurdish paramilitaries and have captured areas in northeastern Syria, including the city of Manbij, in recent days.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control parts of northern Syria, are considered the Syrian branch of the PKK - the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Since 1984, Turkey has been in conflict with the PKK, which is classified as a terrorist organization in the EU.
"In the future, we could see an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria like the one in Iraq." The only difference is that it is easier to defend territories in the mountainous north of Iraq. In parts of Syria, which are in the plain, it could be more difficult," says Berk Esen.
Also, it is still unclear how the HTŠ will behave towards Kurds and other minorities such as Christians.
Return of refugees?
Turkey has a border of about 900 kilometers with Syria and has provided refuge for about three million Syrian refugees. This makes it the country with the most Syrian refugees in the world.
Although Erdogan's government took in large numbers of Syrians after the civil war broke out, it is under enormous pressure today as aversion to refugees grows in economically battered Turkey.
"We attach great importance to the territorial integrity of Syria," Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said last week. "Millions of Syrians, who had to leave their homes, can now return."
Expectations are currently growing in Turkey that it should happen as soon as possible. President Erdogan spoke about the opening of the Jajladag border crossing near Antakya to Syria, so that refugees could return "safely and voluntarily".
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