The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today released an updated growth forecast for the world economy, expecting it to grow by 3,3 percent in 2025 (an upward revision of 0,1 percentage point), but with increasingly pronounced differences between countries and regions.
Among the world's leading economies, the most pronounced change is recorded by the United States of America (USA), an increase of 0,5 percentage points, so that growth of 2,7 percent is now expected this year, which widens the gap compared to other advanced economies, especially compared to the European Union (EU).
This forecast was made without taking into account the potential policies pursued by the new US President Donald Trump, to the extent that the IMF does not have a precise idea of what will be done and how, the institution reminds.
"The US economy is holding up very well, with a solid labor market, and private demand remains strong. In contrast, growth in the euro zone has picked up again, but we have still revised our forecasts downwards," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourincha told AFP.
The problem stems from two major European economies, Germany and France, whose forecasts have been revised downwards, unlike Spain, which has already had good indicators for the last two years, and the IMF expects even more from it this year, with growth of 2,3 percent.
Germany, which has had two consecutive years of recession, will barely move into positive territory, with expected growth of 0,3 percent, revised down by 0,5 percentage points from the IMF's last forecast in October.
"There is concern about rising energy prices in some countries but also some uncertainty about trade with China or the US and what could happen in the future. That is weighing on countries like Germany and France," Gurinsha said.
The differences observed among Western countries are also visible among rapidly developing countries, with China's economic growth slowing year after year.
The IMF has revised its economic growth forecast for China for 2025 upwards, expecting it to be 4,6 percent, but that is below 2024 (4 percent growth), and that trend is expected to continue in 8, with growth now expected to be 2026 percent, despite the stimulus announced by the Chinese government in recent months.
The good news in the report is that inflation in advanced economies will return to roughly double the target of major central banks, with 2,1 percent projected for this year and 2026 percent for 2022, a sign that the XNUMX inflation peak is in the past.
Although inflation in emerging and developing countries is higher, expected to be 5,6 percent, it has been revised downwards and is slowing down compared to 2024, and this trend is expected next year.
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