The day before he left the White House in 2021, Donald Trump vowed to remain a powerful force in American politics. “The movement we started is just beginning,” he said in a farewell video. What may have seemed like wishful thinking then now sounds like prophecy.
Trump left office a defeated and isolated figure, banned from social media and shunned by fellow Republicans in his own administration. Congress, shaken by the attack on the Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021, was preparing a second impeachment trial.
Trump, now 78, returns to the presidency on Monday, more powerful than ever, according to Reuters, adding that he will now face fewer obstacles as he pursues an agenda that is shattering norms and changing the rules in Washington and upsetting the world.
A former construction magnate, he can now arguably be considered a key political figure of the early 21st century.
"It doesn't look like he's been rejected. It looks like his version of Republican politics has become mainstream," Princeton University history professor Julian Zelizer told the British agency.
Unlike at the beginning of his first term in 2017, Trump now has a clear electoral victory, winning both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
Aides who once tried to temper his most aggressive impulses have been replaced by loyalists willing to bend Washington to his will. Skeptics within the Republican Party have retired, leaving allies ready to push Trump’s proposals through Congress. The Supreme Court, a third of whose justices were appointed by Trump, has already ruled that he will have broad discretion to do as he pleases.
Silicon Valley titans, once aloof, are now vying for his favor. The world's richest man, Elon Musk, has offered to help Trump reform government, while Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos will appear at the swearing-in ceremony.
Trump, a former reality TV star, can also count on a network of sympathetic podcasters and influencers to amplify his message as the mainstream media struggles with declining audiences. His casual October interview with podcaster Joe Rogan had 54 million views on YouTube, approaching the 67 million viewers who tuned in to his televised showdown with Kamala Harris.
Trump inherits a strong economy and a peaceful southern border, with fewer migrant arrests in December than when he left office.
However, he has said he plans to increase tariffs on trading partners and deport millions of immigrants who entered the country illegally, policies that could reignite inflation and put pressure on stock prices, which Trump is closely monitoring.
One potential obstacle to his ambitions could be the bond market, where investors could be nervous if the national debt, which stands at $36 trillion, rises dramatically or if Congress has trouble raising the borrowing limit. Markets could also react badly if Trump fails to fulfill his promise to extend the 2017 tax cuts and reduce government spending, according to Reuters.
When Trump launched his third consecutive presidential bid from his Florida estate in November 2022, his chances seemed slim. Many of his preferred congressional candidates had lost midterm elections, and he was facing numerous criminal and civil investigations. Opponents, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, were generating enthusiasm among Republicans eager to distance themselves from Trump. “A Florida man makes a statement,” the New York Post wrote wryly.
But Republican voters rallied around Trump after his criminal indictment in March 2023 for covering up a hush money payment to a porn star. Donations began to pour in, and he easily secured the party's nomination. Broader events also played into his favor as voters grew increasingly dissatisfied with Democratic President Joe Biden's response to rising prices and illegal immigration. Biden dropped out of the race for reelection in July 2024 after a disastrous debate performance, leaving Kamala Harris little time to pitch her vision to voters.
Trump has also turned his troubles to his advantage, portraying his legal troubles as a campaign of political persecution. When he was grazed by an assassin's bullet in July, Trump raised his fist and shouted, "Fight! Fight! Fight!", creating one of the most memorable images of the year.
In the November election, Trump made inroads among traditional Democratic voters, such as young people and Hispanics. Voters ignored his criminal convictions and warnings from Democrats that the candidate who had not conceded defeat in 2020 still posed a threat to democracy.
Trump has threatened to purge the federal administration and use the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies. He has also hinted at the possibility of refusing to spend funds authorized by Congress, which could lead to a constitutional crisis.
He has embraced an agenda of territorial expansion, such as the idea of buying Greenland from Denmark and taking control of the Panama Canal, which raises the possibility that his second term in the White House could be as chaotic as his first.
But even before he takes the oath of office on Monday, Trump has already transformed the political landscape in Washington. Republicans and Democrats now share his confrontational approach to China and skepticism about free trade agreements. Proposed cuts to popular health care and pension programs, once a staple of Republican budget proposals, are no longer in play. Biden has kept many of Trump’s tariffs in place and worked to reduce the U.S.’s reliance on imported semiconductors.
Once an intruder in American politics, Trump has now become its definition.
“It’s clear that we’ve been in the Trump era since 2015,” Matthew Continetti of the American Enterprise Institute told Reuters. “And it’s not over yet.”
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