Donald Trump is apparently confident that his controversial Middle East plan could succeed. He remains hopeful that Egypt and Jordan will accept people from the Gaza Strip, Trump said on Monday, January 27.
Life in Gaza has long been "hell," says the White House chief. That's why, he added, he wants the residents of the Gaza Strip to move to an area "where they can live without all this unrest, riots and violence." Is this a permanent or just temporary relocation of the Palestinians? Trump is leaving that question open for now.
He still insists on the idea of resettling Palestinians and believes it is possible – despite enormous political reservations and doubts that it would not be in accordance with international law. Trump insists on it despite all the denials, rejections of his idea and (alleged) phone conversations with Jordanian King Abdullah II and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
“I would love for him to take over some of them,” Trump said, his gaze fixed on his Egyptian counterpart. However, al-Sisi’s office denied the alleged phone call – claiming that the two politicians did not discuss it at all. Trump, on the other hand, stressed: “We helped them a lot and I’m sure they will help us.”
Egypt and Jordan reject Trump's idea
The proposal to relocate Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to neighboring countries has been the subject of much criticism in recent days. In addition to the European Union, Germany and some other actors, representatives of Jordan and Egypt have also rejected the proposal.
Egypt supports "the unwavering insistence of the Palestinian people on their own state," the Foreign Ministry in Cairo said. Egypt rejects "any interference with these inalienable rights, whether it involves colonization or annexation of the land, or the depopulation of that land in the form of persecution."
Jordan has a similar position, as confirmed by the Jordan Times, a newspaper close to the ruling structures. Jordan is not and will never be an alternative homeland for Palestinians, it claims. "Jordan rejects any attempt to deprive Palestinians of their rights. Palestinians cannot give up their homeland."
Possible large protests
Political scientist Stefan Roll of the Berlin-based Foundation for Science and Politics (SWP) partly explains Egypt's rejection of Trump's plan as solidarity, or support for the Palestinian desire for their own state: "It's a big issue on the domestic front (...) giving up Egyptian land is taboo, especially in the context of the resettlement project. For many Egyptians, it would be an anti-Palestinian project. In that case, the government would have to count on significant protests from the population."
The royal family and government in Jordan would face similar problems, adds Edmund Ratka, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's office in the country. Most Jordanians strongly reject the project, considering it an undermining of the "Palestinian cause."
"No one in the country, not even the king, wants to be suspected of supporting such a policy, not least because it would strengthen extremist groups within Jordan," says Ratka.
There is another reason, Ratka notes: the non-Palestinian parts of the Jordanian population, which form the backbone of the state, are concerned that this could change the demographic and political balance in the country, to their detriment. This, Ratka adds, could strengthen the argument of right-wing forces in Israel who already believe that Jordan is in fact a Palestinian state.
It is true that Jordanians of Palestinian origin already dominate significant parts of the Jordanian private sector. According to various sources, about 50 percent of the Jordanian population is of Palestinian origin. "And that is one of the reasons why Jordanian natives oppose additional Palestinian immigration," Ratka notes.
A new war with Israel?
In Egypt, Trump's proposal has raised major security concerns, says an expert from Berlin's SWP Rol. "These are reflected in the fact that the Sinai border region has been very unstable in recent decades anyway. In the meantime, the situation has stabilized to some extent, thanks to massive military operations." If large refugee camps were to spring up in the Sinai region, there would be a risk of renewed unrest, which could then spread to the rest of the country, explains DW's interlocutor.
"At the same time, there is of course the concern that attacks on Israel could be launched from refugee camps or Palestinian settlements. And Israel would then probably react – and so Egypt would find itself at war with Israel. There are huge concerns about that," says Roll.
In Jordan, the reasons for concern are of a somewhat different nature, adds Edmund Ratka. During the war in the Gaza Strip, which followed the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the king and the government had many difficulties in trying to convince their population of the correctness of their course towards Israel - a course of consensus and peace. However, the Israeli-Jordanian peace agreement of 1994 was concluded with the expectation that the Palestinians would one day receive their own state, Ratka recalls.
"If the Palestinian statehood project fails, then, in the opinion of many Jordanians, relations with Israel would have to be fundamentally re-examined. And it is in this sense that Trump's recent proposal on population transfer is being viewed."
In Jordan, especially in the context of historical experiences with refugeeism and persecution, no one believes that the relocation of Palestinians to neighboring countries would only be temporary, Ratka adds.
Red line
"Amman has always defined the expulsion of Palestinians from the Palestinian territories as a red line," Ratka recalls. "If they were to agree to that proposal now, the Jordanian authorities would find themselves in a weak position both towards their own population and on the international stage, as someone without influence."
The situation is similar in Egypt, believes Stefan Roll. "Especially given the reconstruction and economic importance of the Gaza Strip, Egypt still wants to be present on the ground. Therefore, it is expected that Cairo could try to influence Trump's plans and, if possible, stop them."
Roll notes, however, that Trump, despite all the criticism, is right about one thing: "The Gaza Strip has been completely destroyed. It will take years for it to be rebuilt. Where will the Palestinians live until then?"
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