Syria after Assad, with a rebel leader at the helm: Excluding Iran

"After Iran, its allies and proxies in Syria have killed tens of thousands of people, there is no sympathy for them or desire for reconciliation," said Philip Smyth, an expert on Middle East developments and Iranian proxy forces.

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Shaara and Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Photo: Reuters
Shaara and Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

The rebel leader-turned-Syrian ruler, Ahmed al-Shara, has received numerous foreign delegations since he took power in Damascus in December, but none of them have been from Iran.

To further emphasize his position, immediately after being proclaimed interim president of Syria, Shaara made a priority visit to Iran's regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, writes the English-language editorial staff of Radio Free Europe (RFE).

Iran's exclusion from relations with Syria's new authorities is not surprising. After all, Tehran has spent billions of dollars, sent military advisers and established proxy forces in Syria to help former President Bashar al-Assad quell the uprising and fight rebel forces since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.

"After Iran, its allies and proxies in Syria have killed tens of thousands of people, there is no sympathy for them or desire for reconciliation," said Philip Smyth, an expert on Middle East developments and Iranian proxy forces.

"Doors closed" for Tehran

Even conservative Iranian media sees Shaara's visit to Saudi Arabia as a signal to Iran that Damascus has moved out of Tehran's sphere of influence.

"I don't see how this wouldn't be interpreted as a message to Tehran, given that Saudi Arabia is one of their main regional enemies," Smajth said.

Shaara, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, which the United States (US) has designated as a terrorist organization, has long sought to change his public image. He has publicly renounced his ties to al-Qaeda and sought to present himself as a pragmatic and tolerant leader.

He stopped using the rebel nickname Abu Muhammad al-Jolani after the overthrow of Assad's government and set out to lift sanctions on Syria and rebuild the country after more than a decade of civil war.

Masoud Aflak, a political analyst from the United Arab Emirates, said Shaaraw's visit to Saudi Arabia was an "important step" towards lifting Western sanctions, securing funds for Syria's reconstruction and establishing security in the post-Assad era.

"The interim president is aware that for the sanctions to be lifted, Syria needs an ally who can be its voice on the world stage," Fard told Radio Free Europe.

Saudi Arabia's opening towards Sharjah is significant because Riyadh sees Islamic movements as an existential threat.

"Saudi Arabia sees an opportunity based on pragmatism when it comes to Syria," Smyth said. "Now the Saudis, along with other countries (including European ones), are examining the situation. They are trying to see what the next chapter in Damascus will be like and they have a greater chance of influence than with the previous regime."

Aflak said the Saudis' primary concern is to ensure that there is no power vacuum in Syria that could be exploited by extremist groups and proxy forces backed by Iran.

"The instability in Syria will not remain limited to Syria and will spread to other countries," Aflak argued.

Shaara's visit carries another message — this one aimed at Sunni regional actors, according to Smajt.

"It opens the door to competing actors with their own regional geopolitical interests," he said. "Qatar and Saudi Arabia come to mind. There is already a relationship with Turkey. The door is closed to Iran."

Shara and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Shara and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoganphoto: Reuters

Even Russia is getting recognition

Assad's only other state ally was Russia, which helped the former Syrian leader retain power during his rule - especially after a major military intervention in 2015 - and provided him with sanctuary when he was removed from power.

Unlike Iran, Russia seems to have managed to establish some connection with the new Syrian authorities.

It has maintained contact with Damascus and even sent a delegation last week to talk to Sharaa in the hope of preserving its military bases in Syria. "Iran has tried to fundamentally change Syria and has been open about these measures. Their approach has been sectarian and ideological," Smythe said.

"Russia, despite its obvious use of brutal violence against civilians, has been somewhat more pragmatic."

The key difference, Smythe added, is that Russia "provides a better balance" compared to Western powers that are cautiously trying to establish relations with Damascus.

However, Iran, which has witnessed the collapse of its network of regional allies and proxy forces over the past year, does not have much to offer Syria.

"Even their oil doesn't have much value now that ties with the Gulf states have been restored," Smythe said.

Is there room for return?

Syria under Assad was a key point in the land corridor connecting Iran to the Levant, providing the logistical backbone of their regional network of state and non-state actors. The loss of Assad was a severe blow to the so-called axis of resistance.

The Iranian government has not ruled out the possibility of establishing relations with the Shaara government. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that Iran supports any government chosen by the Syrian people.

However, that message contradicts statements by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who last month supported "Syrian youth" to rebel against Sharah.

On the other hand, Shaara shows no interest in establishing relations with Tehran. He has banned Israelis and Iranians from entering Syria and is reportedly seeking compensation from the Islamic Republic for damage caused during the civil war.

That leaves Iran with only one option: Exploit reports of sectarian violence under the new interim government to support armed Shiite militias in challenging Sharjah.

"They can try to incite support for violence inside Syria. Instability and its creation have always been options that Iran uses," Smythe said.

But given the numerous challenges Iran faces at home and abroad, that is easier said than done.

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