Can Israel destroy Iran's nuclear program?

US intelligence has concluded that the chances of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program in the next few months are high, according to leading US media outlets, but the question remains whether Israel can destroy its archenemy's nuclear facilities on its own.

Iran is believed to be at its weakest and most vulnerable in decades, largely due to Israeli actions over the past year that have severely damaged Tehran's regional network and weakened its air defenses and missile production capabilities.

This assessment is not "strange" as the possibility has been mentioned for months, especially after the Israeli attacks on Iran last October, according to Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"But what the major media is reporting now could be related to US President Donald Trump's approach towards Iran, which is a mixture of a desire to reach a nuclear deal with the threat of military action," Azizi told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

Potential Israeli attack

The Israeli attack last October was in response to the Islamic Republic launching 200 ballistic missiles, which penetrated Israel's strong air defenses but caused little damage.

While Tehran downplayed the impact of the Israeli attack, satellite imagery quickly showed that Israel had successfully degraded Iran's air defense and missile production capabilities.

According to analysts, the attack was carefully planned under pressure from the administration of former US President Joseph Biden, which convinced Israel not to attack Iranian nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure.

The attack marked the largest air offensive against Iran since the 1980s and demonstrated that Israel can target facilities deep inside Iranian territory.

However, it is unlikely that Israel can destroy Iran's nuclear program without the help of the United States.

Two key Iranian nuclear facilities are the underground fuel enrichment plant at Natanz and the enrichment facility at Fordow, which is buried in a mountain.

Some believe that even American weapons may not be enough to effectively penetrate and completely destroy these facilities.

Since taking office in January, Trump has expressed a desire to reach a "verifiable nuclear peace deal" with Iran. As time has passed, his messages have become noticeably harsher. While Trump initially spoke of wanting to see Iran "progress," he has recently said he would "love to make a deal with them without bombing them."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a harsh critic of negotiations with Iran and opposed the 2015 nuclear deal that was signed during the administration of US President Barack Obama.

Although Netanyahu has an excellent relationship with Trump, there is no guarantee that he will reconsider attacking Iranian nuclear facilities if Trump reaches a deal with Tehran.

"For Netanyahu, no deal with Iran is better than any deal. He probably worries that Trump might make too many concessions to the Iranians," says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

Advanced nuclear program

Iran has significantly expanded its nuclear program since Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal during his first term and reimposed sanctions against Tehran.

The Islamic republic insists that its nuclear program is peaceful and that it has no intention of developing a bomb.

But it is now enriching uranium to 60 percent purity, which is close to weapons-grade levels and far above the 3,67 percent limit under the nuclear deal. As of October 2024, Iran had just over 182 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium. About 42 kilograms are needed to produce one bomb, meaning Tehran has enough to make four bombs.

The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in its annual threat report for 2024 that it does not believe Iran is currently working on a bomb, but that its activities in recent years "better position it to produce a nuclear device."

If the Islamic Republic were to decide to build a bomb, the main limitation would be the time it would take to build a deliverable nuclear warhead, which could take anywhere from a few months to two years. The New York Times reported earlier this month that there are indications that Iran is considering rapidly developing a primitive nuclear weapon to deter an attack. However, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security argues that even if Iran were to develop a primitive weapon in half a year, it would risk detection in just a few months, which is “more than enough time for a devastating military response.”

Vaez said that while there is a military option to address Iran's nuclear program, there is no military solution.

"Iran's most important asset is the knowledge it has acquired, not the physical infrastructure on the ground or in bunkers," he added.