A turbulent week that saw two emergency summits in Europe and concerned comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted fears in Europe from Kiev to London.
Namely, so that Washington and Moscow could try to make their own deal on the future of Ukraine without Kiev and American allies in Europe.
US President Donald Trump added to the angst with a post on his Truth Social network, accusing Zelensky of being a dictator and saying that "we are successfully negotiating with Russia to end the war."
US officials have denied that they want to exclude anyone from the process. However, suggestions from the US that Europe will not be at the negotiating table have caused widespread alarm, and positive vibes from the US-Russia meeting in Riyadh on February 18 have also caused concern.
At this stage, there are two key questions: can Washington and Moscow even agree on a mutually acceptable solution to end the war in Ukraine, and if they can, what could anyone else do about it?
The White House clearly wants peace. It is not clear whether Moscow wants it too. Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, arrived in Kiev on February 19, just hours after Russia launched overnight strikes on Ukraine. About 250.000 people were left without power in sub-zero temperatures in the port city of Odessa.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in the State Duma that "the crisis should not be resolved by a ceasefire."
If the Kremlin is ready for a deal, it appears to be taking a tough stance in the negotiations. The nightmare scenario for Ukraine and its European allies is that Washington would agree to such a thing.
US officials have said that both sides in the conflict will have to make concessions, but have not provided details on what those might be on the Russian side.
Asked about this at the Munich Security Conference on February 15, Kellogg said: "There will have to be territorial concessions" and "there could be a renunciation of the use of force."
Skeptics warn that the US is giving too much, too soon, in search of a quick and easy diplomatic victory. But if there is a deal that Ukraine and Europe do not accept, then what?
Several strong statements were made.
Asked in Munich what "not accepting" a bad deal would look like, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiha said: "We know how to resist. We have proven that on the battlefield."
But without US support, Ukraine will find it difficult to resist. So far, Europe has provided more aid to Kiev than the US, according to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The data includes military, financial and humanitarian aid.
Still, Washington has provided the most military aid, underscoring the scale of the challenges Ukraine would face without American support. To make up for the shortfall, Europe would have to nearly double its overall support for Kiev.
European leaders have repeated the mantra that they will provide assistance to Ukraine “as much as necessary.” However, that does not address the question of whether they would massively increase that assistance to fill the gap.
Even talk of a European peacekeeping force, which would be deployed in Ukraine after a potential ceasefire or peace agreement, comes with the caveat that it would require US involvement and support.
Given fiscal constraints and political divisions, it is unclear whether Europe will step in. So far, at every turn, America has been needed to hold its hand.
Bonus video:
