Washington's suspension of military aid will not suddenly lead to the collapse of Ukraine's defense lines, but its real impact on the war will become apparent within a few months, particularly by undermining air defenses and precision strike capabilities.
Deliveries of US military aid across Ukraine's western border were halted at 3.30:XNUMX a.m., a source familiar with the situation told Reuters, after US President Donald Trump suspended the aid late on Monday, days after his Oval Office talks with Volodymyr Zelensky ended in sharp disagreements.
Yesterday, in an apparent attempt to try to repair relations with the new administration in Washington, Zelensky said that his clash with Trump last week was "regrettable", that he was ready to work under the leadership of the US president to achieve lasting peace, and that it was "time to make things right."
Zelensky stated that he supports peace negotiations and is ready to sign an agreement that would give the United States access to Ukrainian minerals.
"My team and I are ready to work under the strong leadership of President Trump to achieve lasting peace," Zelensky said in a post on the X network. "None of us wants endless war. Ukraine is ready to sit down at the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. No one wants peace more than Ukrainians," Zelensky said.
"We truly appreciate everything America has done to help Ukraine preserve its sovereignty and independence," Zelensky added. "Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go as it should have. I'm sorry it happened the way it did. It's time to make things right."
Zelensky presented a path to a peace agreement, which, he said, could begin with the release of prisoners and a cessation of air and naval attacks - provided that Russia does the same.
"Then we want to move through all the next stages very quickly and work with the US to reach a strong final agreement," he concluded.
The Ukrainian president did not mention the suspension of US military aid in his statement, but he stressed that Kiev is interested in future cooperation and communication with the US.
Earlier yesterday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal said that Ukrainian forces can hold their own on the battlefield against Russian troops, but that Kiev will do everything possible to ensure that cooperation with the US continues.
Washington's decision to suspend aid means it will halt all withdrawals from the $3,85 billion military aid package approved by Congress that Trump inherited from his predecessor Joe Biden. It also appears to halt deliveries of military equipment that Biden had already approved, according to Reuters.
“It’s quite significant, but it’s not as impactful as it would have been earlier in the war, because Ukraine is now much less dependent on direct U.S. military aid than it was before,” said Michael Coffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “However, it will definitely have an impact on Ukraine, and the effect will become more pronounced after a few months when supplies are depleted,” he told the British agency.
Kiev could now face particular difficulties in procuring replacements for sophisticated air defense systems used to repel regular Russian missile attacks, as well as precision weapons such as the HIMARS missile system, which is one of Ukraine’s main strike systems, with a range of 70-85 km (45-55 miles). Shmyhal said the US Patriot system is Ukraine’s only defense against Russian ballistic missiles.
Military analyst Serhiy Zgurets said that advanced air defense systems would likely disappear much faster than some other types of weapons. “A lot will depend on the intensity of the fighting. But given the stockpiles that have been accumulated, it will not be a linear process,” he said.
Ukraine has been heavily dependent on US military aid since the Russian invasion in February 2022, but it endured a months-long delay in deliveries in the first half of 2024, when Republicans initially refused to approve a large aid package.
That delay was ultimately felt on the front, where Ukrainian soldiers complained for months about a significant shortage of artillery shells, which helped Russian forces regain the initiative after a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, the British agency reminds.
This time, any loss of American artillery supplies should not deal as much of a blow, as Europe has significantly increased its supply of shells, and other countries have also contributed, directly or indirectly, Reuters points out.
Ukraine is also now using domestically-made drones for most of its battlefield attacks, military experts say. “Artillery has not lost its place on the battlefield, but we see that warfare has changed and is now based on drones. Artillery is still needed, it changes the enemy’s intentions, but drones are now the basis,” said Roman Kostenko, secretary of Ukraine’s parliamentary committee on national security, defense and intelligence.
He said that in 2024, 65% of Russian soldiers hit by Ukraine were killed by drones, while only 20% were hit by artillery, and only 10% by American artillery.
However, the loss of 155mm shells, of which the US was the largest supplier, appears to be a serious problem. “I know that we have some reserves at the moment and I think that, with the current intensity of the fighting, they should last until about mid-summer,” he told Reuters.
Serhiy Rakhmanin, a member of the parliamentary committee, said that much will now depend on whether the US decides to block third-country manufacturers who hold US production licenses and are ready to continue supplying Kiev with weapons and ammunition.
Rakhmanin told Reuters: “If our European partners have the freedom to act, if they have the time, the will, the money and the ability to help us, this will not be a disaster.”
He particularly pointed to howitzers and air defense missiles.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented proposals yesterday to increase EU defense spending, saying the plans could mobilise up to 800 billion euros ($840 billion). The EU will hold an emergency summit in Brussels tomorrow.
Uncertain intelligence sharing
After the suspension of military aid, the question arises regarding the exchange of American intelligence and whether the US will allow its transfer through third countries.
Kiev also relies heavily on Starlink, Elon Musk's SpaceX satellite internet system, for battlefield communications and drone control, although a Reuters source familiar with the situation said there had been no service disruptions so far.
Despite the fact that relations between Kiev and Washington are under great pressure, there are currently no signs that the US has stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine.
“This is just the first step in distancing, just as re-engagement with Russia will come in several stages,” said a research note by Eurointelligence.
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