Last chance for reconciliation with Trump

Ten days after a heated debate in the Oval Office, the suspension of US military aid and intelligence sharing, US and Ukrainian delegations are meeting today in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for talks that Washington expects will bring significant progress towards ending the war with Russia.

The American side claims that the goal of the meeting is to create a “framework for a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire.” On the Ukrainian side, despite the hope, there are fears that the meeting could be a tactical delay or another attempt by Donald Trump to force concessions that would benefit Russia, writes The Economist.

Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Saudi Arabia yesterday, where he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last night, he will not attend today's talks.

Despite this, the negotiations are attended by powerful teams from both sides, the British newspaper assesses, noting that the Ukrainian delegation is led by Andriy Yermak, Zelensky's closest aide and a powerful figure behind the throne. He will be joined by Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, and Pavlo Palisa, a military adviser. One of the problems, as the Economist notes, is that Yermak is not popular with Trump's team.

The US delegation is led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Walz. However, the negotiations will likely be led by Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy and confidant, who recently met with Vladimir Putin and is also in charge of Middle East negotiations.

Witkoff said yesterday that he has high expectations for the negotiations. "I think we're going there expecting to make significant progress," Witkoff said in an interview with Fox News.

Asked if he believes Zelensky will travel to the US this week to sign a minerals agreement, Witkoff replied: "I'm really optimistic. All the signs are very, very positive."

Russia will manipulate any proposal for a ceasefire. They will say: we can't agree to that, but let's try something else. Putin is smart enough not to simply say "no", said Kurt Volker

U.S. officials have said they plan to use the meeting with the Ukrainians in part to determine whether Kiev is willing to make substantive concessions to Russia to end the war. One U.S. official told Reuters: “We want to see if the Ukrainians are interested not just in peace, but in real peace.”

The summit comes as Russia steps up military pressure on Ukraine, attacking Kiev and other cities with drones and missiles, while Russian and North Korean troops launch a new offensive to push Ukraine out of Kursk.

Ukraine has several goals it wants to achieve in Saudi Arabia, and it has shaped its strategy with the help of France and Britain, writes The Economist.

At a minimum, Kiev wants to sign a framework agreement on joint US-Ukrainian development of mineral resources.

Zelensky also proposed an air and naval ceasefire last week. According to one Western official, the idea is to get the ball rolling by making demands on Moscow. Both initiatives, Western officials hope, should create the impression that Ukraine is ready to engage with Trump.

If Russia rejects the framework agreed upon by the US and Ukraine, Trump would then be the one to pressure Vladimir Putin to accept it, the British newspaper points out. However, it is still unclear what proposals the US will present in Saudi Arabia.

Vitkoff said the goal is to “establish a framework for a peace agreement, as well as an initial ceasefire.”

Ukraine is likely to make it clear that any peace agreement that limits its ability to arm itself, forces it to legally recognize occupied territories as Russian, or interferes in its internal politics — for example, by insisting on holding elections that are currently impossible due to the state of war — will not be accepted.

Ultimately, Ukraine may continue to demand security guarantees from America, but there is little chance of progress on this issue. Britain and France have asked America to provide “security support” to European peacekeeping forces in the event of a full ceasefire, but so far Washington has not given any binding confirmation.

Although Moscow has dismissed the idea of ​​a temporary ceasefire, claiming it is an attempt to buy Kiev time and prevent military collapse, some reports suggest that Putin may be open to a ceasefire under certain conditions. However, the game that is playing out behind it is much more complicated, the Economist estimates.

Kurt Volker, who was special representative for Ukraine in the first Trump administration, told the newspaper that Russia would manipulate any proposal for a ceasefire. “They will say: we can’t agree to that, but let’s try something else. Putin is smart enough not to just say ‘no.’”

A former Ukrainian diplomat claims that the US and Russia are using similar tactics. They are “slicing the ham thin,” i.e. gradually extracting concessions from Ukraine before substantive negotiations even begin. Any further talks could further push Ukraine’s red lines, the official said.

Any successful and lasting peace agreement would require America to pressure the Kremlin to respect it and to keep up the pressure. Trump threatened sanctions on Russia on Friday, but all indications are that he is sympathetic to Putin, as he said just hours later:

“Honestly, I find it increasingly difficult to deal with Ukraine... In terms of reaching a final agreement, it may be easier to negotiate with Russia.”

Volker assesses that "Trump is trying to keep Ukraine on a short leash because he wants them to accept any peace he can provide them... The Ukrainians are an obstacle because they don't want to surrender."

A Ukrainian official warns that the stakes in the talks scheduled for Tuesday could not be higher. If they fail, Ukraine will likely not get a second chance: "The Americans will switch to dictation mode and impose on us any agreement they reach with Russia."