Vladimir Putin has moved closer to his goal of repairing Russia's relations with the United States and creating a rift between the US and Europe, while making only a small contribution to Donald Trump's efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine.
Before the two presidents' long phone call on Tuesday, the US side said it would seek Russia's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire in the war - a proposal that Ukraine has accepted in principle - as a first step towards a full peace agreement.
However, Putin agreed only to a much narrower ceasefire, under which Russia and Ukraine would stop attacking energy facilities for a month.
Putin made sure that Trump did not appear to have left the talks empty-handed, Reuters reports. It was the first time in more than three years of war that both sides had agreed to at least a brief reduction in hostilities, and the White House said talks on a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea, as well as a more comprehensive ceasefire, would begin immediately.
Ceasing attacks on energy facilities and at sea would pose a significant constraint on Ukraine, which since the beginning of the war has dealt serious blows to Russia's oil infrastructure - a key source of funding for the war - as well as its far larger navy.
However, Russia remains free for now to continue its military offensive on land - particularly in the western Kursk region, where it is close to displacing Ukrainian forces that seized part of Russian territory in a surprise incursion last August.
Putin reiterated Russia's conditions for a broader ceasefire - that Kiev must not use it to supply weapons and mobilize additional troops. Ukraine rejects those conditions.
Nigel Gould-Davies, a Russia expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, told Reuters that Putin has effectively rejected a broader ceasefire and is unlikely to seriously consider it unless Trump follows through on threats to increase economic pressure on Russia with additional sanctions.
"He said he was interested (in a ceasefire), but he set a number of conditions that were clearly unacceptable to him. That's a 'no' in other words," Gould-Davies told Reuters in a telephone interview.
Trump's aides presented the phone call as a success and an important step towards a ceasefire.
"Until recently, we really didn't have a consensus on these two aspects - a ceasefire on energy infrastructure and a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea - and today we've got that, and I think we're relatively close to a full ceasefire," Trump envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox.
But Andrei Kozyrev, a pro-Western politician who served as Russia's foreign minister in the 1990s and now lives abroad, told the Dozhd channel that Trump had achieved nothing. "It is entirely in Putin's interest to continue the war and drag America by the nose," he said.
Putin has said he is interested in a ceasefire, but has set a number of clearly unacceptable conditions. That is a 'no' in other words, Gould-Davies said
A Russian source close to the Kremlin told Reuters: “Putin is trying to put pressure on Trump and will continue the war. The Ukrainians will retreat and slowly lose territory and people.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kiev was ready to support a moratorium on attacks on energy targets - but, just hours later, both sides accused each other of launching new attacks.
However, the prisoner exchange, which was presented as a step towards building trust, was nevertheless carried out, and Trump, after his phone call with Putin, also spoke with Zelensky yesterday, stating afterwards that "we are on a very good path."
Trump said his "very good phone call" with Zelensky lasted an hour, their first since a meeting in the Oval Office on February 28, which ended in a heated argument.
Even if a limited ceasefire on energy targets were to hold, analysts say it would not represent a significant concession by Putin. In return, by halting attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, he would gain a reprieve from frequent drone attacks on some of Russia’s largest oil refineries, which have shut down 3,3 million tons — or 4% — of Russia’s total oil refining capacity since the beginning of this year, according to Reuters estimates.
Kozyrev said that Putin did not give up anything by agreeing to a ceasefire in the energy sector, which, as he stated, is "very unclear" anyway.
"Secondly, this is of course not at all what Trump talked about, nor what he demanded, nor what the Ukrainians agreed to, which is a (complete) ceasefire. This is a ceasefire on selective targets. This is not what was requested," he said.
In an official report of the conversation, the Kremlin said the presidents agreed to continue efforts to end the war “in a bilateral format” — an approach that worries Ukraine and its European allies, who fear Trump could reach a deal with Putin that would bypass them and leave them vulnerable in the future.
The Kremlin said the two leaders also discussed broader areas of potential cooperation - in the Middle East, as well as nuclear proliferation and security - in light of the "special responsibility" of Russia and the United States for preserving global stability.
It fits into Putin's effort to bring Russia back to the diplomatic table as an equal partner to the United States, negotiating with Washington on equal terms after years of US attempts to isolate Moscow and punish it with economic sanctions.
“This is, of course, a great success for Putin, who manages to pull bilateral relations out of direct dependence on the Ukrainian conflict,” said political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya.
Nigel Gould-Davies said it was clear that Putin, who has also lured American companies with potentially lucrative business deals, “wants to negotiate only with the US, not with its allies,” in an effort to separate Washington from its NATO partners.
"This leaves Europe in a situation where it has to mobilize resources for its own defense very quickly and hope that it will somehow manage to limit the process of separation that is already underway," he added.
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