In July and August 2024, the ice of the Arctic Sea cracked under the steel of three heavy icebreakers: Xuelong 2, Yi Di, and Zhong Shan Da Shue Ji Di. The three ships were testing unhindered navigation in the North Sea – which was practical, but above all symbolic: China is present in the Arctic, and permanently, the ships said. The message was clear and did not go unnoticed – the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published an article in October 2024 under the headline: “The Arctic is becoming Chinese.”
China has long been active in the Arctic, says Michael Paul, from the Berlin-based Science and Politics Institute (SWP):
"Since the early 2000s, China has been very involved in the region, especially in Iceland. However, Beijing then faced resistance from Denmark and the US. Since then, Beijing has turned to other states in the region, primarily Russia. However, due to the war in Ukraine, Russia has been weakened - and is increasingly playing the role of a subordinate partner to China, including in the Arctic."
China, like other countries in the region, is engaging in the Arctic because of climate change, which is particularly pronounced in that part of the world. The global average temperature in 2024 was about 1,5 degrees Celsius higher than in the pre-industrial period. However, according to data from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, the Arctic is warming up four times faster than the rest of the planet. The result is the accelerated melting of Arctic ice.
If current forecasts come true, the ice could almost completely recede in the summer months between 2030 and 2040, opening up three new shipping routes between the Pacific and the Atlantic. This would significantly shorten existing trade routes.
Three new maritime routes
One of these routes, the so-called Northeast Passage, which runs close to the Russian coast, is already developing as a trade and transport route for raw materials between China and Russia. "It is particularly important for transporting gas from the Yamal Peninsula in western Siberia to China," says political scientist Klaus-Peter Saalbach of the University of Osnabrück. However, the passage is not used much. "Currently, only a few dozen ships pass through there per year."
Even less navigable is the Northwest Passage, which runs along the Canadian coast. It is considered significantly more difficult to navigate than the Northeast Passage. "The US Congressional Science Service doubts that it will ever become economically viable for commercial use," says Zalbach. Politically, the passage also poses a challenge for Russia and China. "It passes through areas that Canada considers its territorial waters and reserves the right to regulate navigation in that part of the ocean," he explains.
Given the rapid melting of the ice, the so-called transpolar sea route is also expected to open during the summer months. This route takes the shortest route between the land masses in the north, directly through the ocean, making navigation easier. "On this route, Iceland could play a significant role as a logistics hub," says Sälbah. "China has already built a huge embassy in Iceland, which indicates a strong Chinese presence in the future. Iceland, on the other hand, is trying to strengthen ties with the European Union, but also with Russia and China."
Trump insists on wanting Greenland
US President Donald Trump is reconsidering the possibility of placing Greenland under US control, a project he already tried to implement during his first term. Moreover, the project is in line with general US policy since the end of World War II.
In reality, China and Russia's cooperation on the Northern Sea Route leads to the two countries determining which other countries will be able to use it in the future, says Michael Paul.
"It is therefore understandable that Trump could react extremely sensitively to this topic. He had a similar reaction when it came to the Panama Canal, whose two main ports - at the entrance and exit - were previously controlled by Chinese companies. However, now these ports have been sold to an American consortium. Also, Japan and South Korea want to use the northern sea route, but they do not want to submit to the Russian or Chinese regime," explains Paul.
Rich deposits of raw materials
At the same time, melting ice provides easier access to the region's vast reserves of natural resources. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated in 2008 that about 30 percent of the world's undiscovered natural gas reserves and 13 percent of undiscovered oil reserves are located in the Arctic.
Greenland has significant deposits of rare earth metals, which are essential for the production of high-tech products, including smartphones, electric motors and batteries. In addition, the Arctic region also contains significant amounts of metals, diamonds, coal and uranium. "All this further intensifies the race for dominance in this area," says Klaus-Peter Zalbach.
However, the exploitation of these resources brings with it serious challenges, warns Michael Paul. "Mining takes place in extreme climatic conditions and requires a logistical infrastructure that, at least for now, is practically non-existent. In Greenland, some deposits have turned out to be less commercially viable than initially assumed." Also, in some parts of the Arctic, resource rights are still not fully clarified, Paul adds.
Military dimension
The Arctic is also of great military importance. Since it is the shortest route between Russia and North America, in the event of a Russian attack, missiles would pass through this area. At the Tula base, which was renamed the Pitufik space base almost two years ago, the US maintains an early warning system for possible missile attacks from Russia or other regions. In addition, the base serves as a logistics center for US and NATO aircraft.
However, the US and NATO will increasingly face China's military presence in the region. As early as 2015, five Chinese warships entered US territorial waters off Alaska. Since 2021, Chinese warships have been regularly patrolling the area.
In 2022, the US Navy spotted a fleet of Russian and Chinese ships just 160 miles (055 kilometers) off Kiska Island, Alaska. Among them was the Nanchang-class 112 destroyer, capable of carrying up to XNUMX cruise missiles or hypersonic anti-ship missiles.
"North America is no longer a safe zone," Michael Paul concludes in his study.
Bonus video:
