Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his aides are waging an intense diplomatic offensive to try to persuade other countries not to bow to pressure from the Trump administration on tariffs, hoping to show that China will not be isolated in a trade war.
In recent days, China's commerce minister held an online meeting with the European Union's top trade official, pushing for closer cooperation. Chinese diplomats are in touch with officials in Tokyo and Seoul. Xi arrived in Vietnam and Malaysia this week on state visits, where he was greeted by carefully organized groups of supporters.
The stakes are high for Xi as the future of the global trading system that has enabled China's rise as a world manufacturing powerhouse, as well as access to foreign markets for many Chinese exports, is at stake as the US has tried to shut them out through crippling tariffs.
The diplomatic initiative also represents a test of China's status as a global power, at a time when Beijing sees Washington's efforts as an attempt to contain and suppress a key rival. China has retaliated against the Trump administration with its own steep tariffs on American goods, as well as restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for assembling cars, missiles and drones.
Xi is trying to assemble a broader coalition in hopes of preventing other countries from imposing their own tariffs on Chinese products or giving in to Washington's demands to move away from Chinese manufacturing.
During his visit to Southeast Asia, Xi presented China as the leading defender of the global order, while indirectly portraying the United States as unreliable. In Hanoi, he called on Vietnam to join China in opposing “unilateral bullying.” In Kuala Lumpur, he called on Southeast Asian countries to also “reject segregation, supply disruptions” and “tariff abuse.”
“Chinese officials have quietly conveyed the message that the way the United States treats its longtime allies and partners in Europe is a harbinger of what lies ahead for Southeast Asia,” said Lin Kuok of the Brookings Institution in Washington. “With Trump’s drastic, sweeping tariffs across the region, that message is practically self-evident.”
Yet Xi’s attempts to portray China as a model of free trade and a champion of a rules-based international order ignore years of Beijing’s harsh economic behavior and generous subsidies to certain industries, which have often alienated trading partners and neighbors from China. This partly explains why the world’s decline in trust in Washington has not automatically led to greater rapprochement with Beijing, although the risks of Trump’s retaliation against those who side with China should not be ignored.
The European Union, Japan and South Korea have already rejected China's attempts to suggest they have agreed to jointly resist Trump's tariffs. EU officials have raised concerns about Chinese goods being dumped into their markets at cheap prices. Last week, Australia rejected a call from Chinese Ambassador Xiao Qian to "join forces" in opposing the Donald Trump administration.
Such reactions to China's calls show that "Beijing is failing to fill the trust vacuum left behind by the US, but is merely offering temporary relief from the shock therapy that the Trump administration has imposed on the world," said Rory Daniels, executive director of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.
Xi's attempts to portray China as a model of free trade and a champion of a rules-based international order ignore Beijing's years of rough economic behavior and generous subsidies to certain industries.
Xi's long-planned visit to Vietnam, followed by a trip to Malaysia and then Cambodia, has taken on added significance as Trump uses his 90-day break in the tariff war to pressure countries to strike trade deals with the U.S. Trump has also shown a sense of urgency, personally engaging in trade talks with visiting Japanese officials in Washington on Wednesday.
Analysts say China fears the agreements could isolate it, including provisions that would stifle Chinese exports. This could be through harmonized tariffs, cracking down on Chinese companies that reroute goods through third countries like Vietnam to disguise their true origins, or targeting Chinese raw materials in exports destined for the United States.
Vietnam gave Xi a rare show of respect when he was greeted on the tarmac by the country’s president. Yet Hanoi resisted pressure to align with Xi’s most vocal statements against protectionism, ultimately signing only a vague joint statement opposing “hegemony and power politics” — an accusation that many in Vietnam level at China in the context of territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
For Vietnam, the threat of a 46 percent U.S. tariff has prompted negotiating teams to travel to Washington to push for lower tariffs. In a concession to Trump, the Vietnamese government this week pledged to crack down on trade fraud — a reference to companies shipping Chinese goods through Vietnam to avoid U.S. tariffs.
Still, Trump continued to pressure Hanoi, telling reporters on Monday that the meeting between Xi and Vietnam's top leader, To Lam, was likely focused on how to "screw up" America.
“Hanoi is being careful not to send a signal that it is leaning too much toward Beijing, especially in areas that could anger the Trump administration,” said Nguyen Kac Giang, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS Institute in Singapore. “In essence, Hanoi is still balancing between two world powers. But as the geopolitical climate tightens, the space for such a strategy is rapidly narrowing.”
Vietnam risks retaliation from its much larger neighbor if Beijing assesses that Hanoi is trying to curry favor with the Trump administration at China's expense.
China last month imposed tariffs of up to 100 percent on canola, pork and other food products from Canada, which is being interpreted as a clear message to countries not to cooperate with Washington on trade.
For Beijing, if trading partners "undercut the US, they are harming China, but at the same time they are harming their own country," said Shen Dingli, an international relations expert from Shanghai.
The threat was further amplified by Yuyuan Tantian, a blog affiliated with China’s state broadcaster CCTV. China will not comment on other countries’ negotiations with the US, the post said. “But if someone uses China’s interests as a pledge of loyalty to the US, China will never accept it!”
The warning underscores how Beijing is simultaneously challenging and courting its neighbors as President Trump redefines Washington’s position in the world. Xi’s expression of “deep friendship” during a visit to Vietnam came shortly after China conducted live-fire military exercises in the Gulf of Tonkin to reaffirm its territorial claims to those waters, which Hanoi disputes.
Even if China fails to build a united front against Trump's tariffs, it could benefit from making other countries think twice before aligning their trade policies with the U.S., said Jonathan Chin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and former CIA analyst who studies Chinese politics.
"Xiu doesn't really need these countries to choose Beijing," said Chin. "He just needs to prevent them from choosing Washington. That's why China's 'charm offensive' hasn't been so charming so far."
Translation: NB
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