Trying to predict who the next pope will be can be a risky endeavor.
An old Italian proverb warns against trusting, much less investing money, in any supposed favorite before the conclave - the closed assembly of cardinals that elects the pope. The saying goes: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as cardinal."
Reuters brings a list of cardinals often referred to as "papabili" - possible successors to Pope Francis, whose death at the age of 88 was announced today.
Jean-Marc Avelin (66), Archbishop of Marseille, France
According to the French press, in some domestic Catholic circles he is known as John XXIV - due to his physical and ideological resemblance to Pope John XXIII, the reformer of the 1960s.
Pope Francis once jokingly said that his successor could take the name "John XXIV."
Avelin is known for his folksy, laid-back style, his penchant for jokes, and his ideological closeness to Pope Francis - especially on issues of migration and relations with the Muslim world. He is also a serious intellectual, with a doctorate in theology and a degree in philosophy.
He was born in Algeria, to a family of Spanish immigrants who moved to France after Algerian independence. He spent most of his life in Marseille - a port known for its centuries-old meeting of cultures and religions.
During the pontificate of Pope Francis, he advanced rapidly: becoming a bishop in 2013, an archbishop in 2019, and a cardinal in 2022. His importance grew further in September 2023, when he organized an international church conference on Mediterranean issues - at which the pope was the chief guest.
If elected, he would be the first French pope since the 14th century - when, during a turbulent period, the papacy was temporarily moved to Avignon. He would also be the youngest pope since John Paul II. He understands Italian but is not fluent - a possible disadvantage for someone who must navigate Rome's curial structures and power plays.
Cardinal Peter Erdo (72), Hungary
If Erdo were elected, he would be seen as a compromise candidate - a figure from the conservative camp, who nevertheless built bridges with Francis' progressive world.
Erdo was already mentioned as a potential papal candidate during the previous conclave in 2013, thanks to his numerous church contacts in Europe and Africa, as well as his role as a leader of the New Evangelization - a movement aimed at renewing faith in secularized societies, which remains a top priority for many cardinals.
As a theologian, he classifies himself as a conservative, and in numerous speeches across Europe he emphasizes the Christian roots of the continent. However, he is seen as a pragmatist and has never publicly come into conflict with Pope Francis - unlike other traditionalists.
However, he raised eyebrows at the Vatican during the 2015 migrant crisis, when he rejected Pope Francis' call to open churches to refugees, saying it would be tantamount to "human trafficking" - aligning him with the rhetoric of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
An expert in canon law, Erdo entered episcopal service in his forties, and Pope John Paul II appointed him cardinal in 2003 when he was only 51 years old - at the time he was the youngest member of the College of Cardinals.
He speaks Italian, German, French, Spanish and Russian fluently - which could help repair relations with the Russian Orthodox Church after the frosty relations caused by the war in Ukraine.
Erdo is not a charismatic speaker, but that may no longer be a disadvantage - it is possible that the cardinals will desire a calmer, more moderate leader after the dynamic pontificate of Pope Francis.
Cardinal Mario Grek (68), Malta, Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops
He hails from the island of Gozo, which is part of Malta - the smallest member of the European Union. Yet from humble beginnings he rose to great heights when Pope Francis appointed him secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a key body in the Vatican.
Although initially seen as a conservative, Grek has become a prominent voice for Pope Francis' reforms and adaptation to contemporary challenges.
In 2008, several homosexual citizens of Malta publicly left the Church in protest against the stance of the then Pope Benedict. Grek did not show them much empathy at the time. However, in 2014, at the Vatican, he called for greater acceptance of LGBT believers and a more creative approach to modern family situations.
The next morning, Pope Francis patted him on the shoulder at breakfast and praised his speech - which was then interpreted as a signal for future promotion.
In an interview with Malta Today in 2018, he said:
"We are going through a period of change. And for me that is very positive." He warned that the Church will not be relevant to modern society if it remains in nostalgic patterns of the past.
His views also earned him enemies: Cardinal Gerhard Müller, a prominent conservative, attacked him in 2022, accusing him of going against Catholic teaching.
However, Greco's allies claim that he has friends among both conservatives and moderates, and that his visibility and familiarity among cardinals is his great advantage in a conclave where many do not know each other well enough.
As a representative of a small and neutral state, Greco's election would not cause diplomatic or geopolitical friction.
He is known for always seeking consensus over conflict, although he sometimes stirs up controversy - for example, in 2016 he led a pilgrimage for rain after meeting with drought-stricken farmers. Although a local newspaper derided it as "a return to prehistoric times", a few days later - it did indeed start to rain.
Cardinal Juan José Omella (79), Spain, Archbishop of Barcelona
Omelja is a man made to measure for Pope Francis. Unobtrusive, cheerful, he leads a modest life despite his high ecclesiastical position. Throughout his career, he has dedicated himself to pastoral care, social justice, and promoting a compassionate and inclusive vision of Catholicism.
"We must not only see reality through the eyes of those who have the most, but also through the eyes of the poor," he said in an interview with Crux in April 2022, expressing a vision of the world similar to Francis's.
He was born in 1946 in the village of Kretas in northeastern Spain. He was ordained in 1970 and served as a priest in several Spanish parishes, and for one year as a missionary in Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo).
His commitment to social issues is also confirmed by his long-standing cooperation (1999–2015) with the Spanish humanitarian organization Manos Unidas, which fights hunger, disease, and poverty.
He became a bishop in 1996, and Pope Francis appointed him Archbishop of Barcelona in 2015. Just a year later, Francis bestowed upon him the cardinal's biretta - a move that was interpreted at the time as support for his progressive direction, contrary to the once dominant conservative currents in the Spanish Church.
He is the former president of the Spanish Bishops' Conference. During his tenure, he faced the fallout from an independent investigation that estimated in 2023 that over 200.000 minors may have been sexually abused by Spanish clergy over several decades.
Omelja has repeatedly apologized for mishandling abuse cases, but has denied the accuracy of the number, as an internal church investigation identified only 927 victims from the 1940s to the present.
"At the end of the day, numbers don't get us anywhere. What matters are people and the ability to repair the damage done to them," he said. "Accusations are not the solution. The problem does not belong only to the Church, but to the whole of society."
In 2023, Pope Francis invited him to join his nine-member advisory council of cardinals.
If the conclave decides that the Church needs a break from Francis' approach, Omelja's closeness to the late pope could hurt his chances.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70), Italian, Vatican diplomat
A favorite among bookmakers, Parolin is often cited as a compromise candidate - between progressives and conservatives. He spent most of his life as a church diplomat, and since 2013 has served as the Vatican's secretary of state, de facto second in command to the pope.
His function is often described as "papal prime minister", and he plays a key role in church leadership.
Parolin was previously deputy foreign minister under Pope Benedict, who sent him as ambassador to Venezuela in 2009, where he opposed attempts by then-President Hugo Chavez to weaken the influence of the Church.
He was also the main architect of the Vatican's rapprochement with China and Vietnam. Conservatives criticized him for an agreement with communist China on the appointment of bishops, but Parolin defended the agreement, saying it was not ideal but that it prevented a schism and ensured dialogue with Beijing.
Parolin has never been vocal in the so-called culture wars (abortion, LGBT rights), although he has described the legalization of same-sex marriage as a "defeat for humanity."
He advocated for preserving the central authority of the Vatican, and criticized attempts by the German Bishops' Conference to allow symbolic blessings of same-sex couples.
Quiet and polite, Parolin could return the papacy to Italians after three consecutive non-Italian popes - John Paul II of Poland, Benedict of Germany and Francis of Argentina.
He entered the Vatican diplomatic service three years after his ordination, so he doesn't have much pastoral experience, but he speaks several languages.
Cardinal Luis Antonio "Čito" Tagle (67), Philippines
Tagle is often called the "Asian Francis" because of his similar commitment to social justice. If elected, he would be the first pope from Asia.
On paper, Tagle has almost everything you need:
Decades of pastoral experience (ordained 1982)
He was Bishop of Imus, then Archbishop of Manila.
Pope Benedict appointed him a cardinal in 2012.
In 2019, Pope Francis transferred him from Manila to the Vatican and appointed him Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, giving him international experience.
The Philippines is often called the "Catholic Lungs of Asia," and Tagle comes from a mixed family - his mother is ethnic Chinese from the Philippines. He speaks fluent Italian and English.
He was president of Caritas Internationalis (2015–2022), a global network of Catholic humanitarian organizations. However, in 2022, Pope Francis dismissed the entire leadership of Caritas following allegations of harassment of employees. Tagle was formally president, but was not involved in the day-to-day work.
At the emergency meeting, Tagle then said:
"This is a moment to face our failures." It is not yet clear whether this episode will diminish his chances in the conclave.
Cardinal Joseph Tobin (72), USA, Archbishop of Newark
While it is unlikely that the Church will elect a pope from the United States for the first time, Tobin could be the most likely candidate if they decide to go that route.
The former global leader of the Redemptorists, born in Detroit, has lived in many countries and speaks Italian, Spanish, French and Portuguese. He has experience from the Vatican and from the highest positions in the American church.
He was an assistant in a Vatican department (2009–2012), and was then appointed Archbishop of Indianapolis by Benedict. Pope Francis made him a cardinal in 2016 and soon after, Archbishop of Newark.
He is known for his open approach towards LGBT people, and for his strong transparency during the scandal with Theodore McCarrick, who was his predecessor. Tobin disclosed previously secret settlements with victims.
He is the oldest of thirteen children, and has spoken publicly about his struggle with alcoholism.
Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson (76), Ghana
From humble beginnings in a small African town, Terkson has built a distinguished career in the Church, and is considered a possible first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.
He combines pastoral experience in Ghana, work in several Vatican institutions, and excellent communication skills.
He was born in the small town of Wasau Nsuta on what was then the British Gold Coast. His father was a miner and carpenter, and his mother sold vegetables.
He studied in Ghana and New York, was ordained in 1975, and then taught Biblical studies in Ghana. Pope John Paul II appointed him Archbishop of Cape Coast in 1992, and in 2003, the first cardinal of Ghana.
Benedict brought him to the Vatican in 2009 as head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, and Terkson became one of the popes' closest advisors on climate, human rights and global justice issues. He was a prominent guest at the Davos forum.
Pope Francis reformed his ministry in 2016, leading to clashes with other cardinals. Terkson resigned in 2021, but was soon appointed president of two Vatican academies (sciences and social sciences).
In an interview with BBC in 2023, he said:
"I pray against being elected pope," although some critics accuse him of actually lobbying for the position through his media visibility.
Matteo Maria Cupi (69), Italy, Archbishop of Bologna
When Cpi became Archbishop of Bologna in 2015, the Italian media dubbed him the "Italian Bergoglio" because of his closeness to Francis's theology and style.
He would be the first Italian pope since 1978.
Cupi is known as a "street priest" - focused on migrants and the poor, uninterested in pomp. In Bologna, he uses a bicycle instead of an official car, and often introduces himself simply as "Father Mateo".
He was involved in interfaith initiatives, such as allowing pork-free tortellini during the city's patron saint's day, as a sign of respect for the Muslim community.
For conservatives, his appointment would be a cause for suspicion. Victims of sexual abuse may also be skeptical, as the Italian Church - which he has presided over since 2022 - has been slow to respond to these cases.
He is close to the community of Sant'Egidio, known for its peace initiatives. Cupi was among the mediators in the peace agreement for Mozambique in 1992.
He also recently served as the Pope's envoy regarding the war in Ukraine, focusing on the return of children whom Ukraine claims were deported to Russia.
Cupi was born in Rome, with a pronounced local accent and deep Catholic roots. His father, Enrico, was the editor of the Sunday supplement of the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano, and his maternal uncle, Carlo Confalonieri, was a cardinal.
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