Who could govern the Gaza Strip in the future? The question has become more pressing since Tuesday (April 22), when an unnamed Palestinian official told the BBC that the Islamist Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip, had signaled its willingness to hand over power to another Palestinian institution.
This could be the Palestinian Authority (PA) or some new, yet-to-be-formed institution. According to officials, this would require a prior agreement "at the national and regional levels."
The statement was made in the context of a draft prepared by Egypt and Qatar for the continuation of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas on a new ceasefire. The ceasefire should last five to seven years, with a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of all Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
The willingness to discuss withdrawal from power was certainly influenced by the significant weakening of Hamas's position due to Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip. This military operation came in response to Hamas' attack on Israeli territory on October 7, 2023.
Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization by Western countries and elsewhere, killed about 1.200 people and kidnapped about 250 others who were taken to Gaza. According to the local Ministry of Health, which is under Hamas control, more than 50.000 people have died in the war so far. This figure cannot be independently verified, but the UN considers it largely credible.
Protests against Hamas
According to an analysis by the newspaper "Al Hayat al Jadida", which is close to the Palestinian Authority, it is clear that Hamas, under the pressure of a long-term war, must react. The increased willingness to compromise is probably a consequence of the increasingly frequent protests of citizens in Gaza, who are daily demanding the resignation of Hamas.
"These protests clearly express the population's rejection of Hamas rule," the newspaper said. There is also speculation that the government in Tehran could soon abandon its allies in the Middle East - including Hamas - as part of negotiations with the US.
If Hamas were to truly relinquish power, it would end a long period of unchanged political rule in the Gaza Strip. Back in 2005, then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ordered the withdrawal of the Israeli army and Israeli settlers from the Gaza Strip.
The following year, Hamas won a majority in parliamentary elections in the Palestinian territories. Shortly thereafter, it agreed to enter a joint government with the rival Fatah movement, which essentially controls the Palestinian Authority.
However, the coalition collapsed after just a few months. In 2007, Hamas armed forces attacked Fatah headquarters and took complete control of Gaza. Since then, Hamas has ruled the Gaza Strip almost unhindered.
Expert: The key issue is Hamas disarmament
Is Hamas's power now seriously threatened? Political analyst Peter Lintl of the Berlin Foundation for Science and Politics, which studies the Middle East conflict, doubts that a voluntary and substantive transfer of power by Hamas could happen soon. The real obstacle, he says, is the demilitarization demanded by Israel. Lintl, however, can imagine that Hamas would be willing to give up direct political rule in the Gaza Strip in favor of a technocratic government.
"But it seems doubtful to me that Hamas would agree to its own disarmament. And then the question arises of who would take care of internal and external security if Hamas remained armed. It would probably still be stronger than any other armed force," the Middle East expert told Deutsche Welle (DW). That is why, according to him, it is unlikely that Israel would agree to this.
Markus Schneider, director of the Middle East Regional Peace and Security Project at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Beirut, has a similar view. It is theoretically possible for Hamas to leave Gaza, he says, but it is unclear who would replace it.
"There is no real alternative inside Gaza," says Schneider.
"The only possible option would be the Palestinian Authority. But Israel has been blocking it for a year and a half," he adds.
"It is forgotten that the Gaza Strip and the West Bank form a political entity. In the long term, it is difficult to imagine them being governed by separate authorities," Schneider tells DW.
Hard to imagine alternatives
What an alternative to Hamas might look like is currently hard to imagine, Lintl believes. Perhaps, under a different Israeli government, a compromise would be possible, he says, adding: "The current Israeli government is against Palestinian self-government – and clearly against an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza."
Parts of the current government are advocating the repopulation of Gaza or at least the establishment of large permanent Israeli security zones. The current buffer zone already covers about 30 percent of Gaza's territory, Lintl says.
He believes it is inconceivable that the current Israeli government could agree to any new form of Palestinian self-government after the eventual withdrawal of Hamas.
Markus Schneider of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation has a similar opinion: "Given Israeli policy over the past year and a half, it is clear that Israel is not interested in the formation of any new Palestinian political structure in Gaza - regardless of its composition. Since the beginning of the war, it has been possible to talk to alternative forces. Israel clearly does not care about a political alternative."
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