After Donald Trump's inauguration in January, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban predicted that the "Trump tornado" would usher in a golden age for the European far right. However, as Reuters reports, things are not going that way.
In Hungary, the strong economy that once helped Orban win elections is now in trouble, and the situation could worsen further as Europe confronts Trump's aggressive trade policies, the British agency points out. The political opposition in the country is stronger than ever during Orban's 15-year rule. And Orban's close relationship with Trump no longer brings clear advantages, given that US tariffs threaten the Hungarian economy.
Nearly 100 days after Trump began to disrupt the transatlantic order, Orban, along with other right-wing leaders and politicians in Europe, must assess whether unwavering support for Trump will harm their popularity at home at a time of growing economic woes.
Ahead of general elections in Hungary early next year, the Tisza party, led by a former Orban ally, now has a four-percentage-point lead over Orban's Fidesz party, according to a poll by the Budapest-based Median Institute. Other surveys give the opposition an even greater advantage. Institutes close to the government say Fidesz is still in the lead.
“This is really the first time since 2010 that there is a significant chance of an opposition party winning the election,” Bulcs Hunyadi, an expert on right-wing populism at the Budapest-based Political Capital, told Reuters.
Government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs and Orban's top aide Balazs Orban (no relation to the prime minister) declined to comment for this story. The prime minister claims that "fantastic" relations between Hungary and the United States will bring prosperity to Hungarians.
The withdrawal of US security guarantees in Ukraine has forced Europe to rearm and unite in the face of threats from both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the possibility of a transatlantic trade war shows signs of strengthening European unity.
This has made Orbán increasingly isolated, as Trump's most loyal ally among the 27 members of the European Union and as the EU leader with the closest ties to Putin.
Most polls show that support for the European far right remains stable since Trump's return to the White House.
Researchers believe that any boost that Trump's victory brought to far-right leaders like Orban has been negated by the US president's hostile statements towards Europe.
The far right portrays itself as patriots. Their opponents have used this against them, arguing that their loyalty to the anti-European American president makes them “servants of a foreign power,” Reuters points out.
US tariffs have also put other European far-right politicians in an awkward position.
Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain's Vox party, who attended Trump's inauguration, enjoys strong support among farmers who are likely to be hit hard by the U.S. tariffs. Abascal did not directly criticize Trump, but offered to go to Washington to mediate on behalf of the Spanish people, blaming the center-left government and the European Union for their plight.
Leaders of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which won almost 21% of the vote in February's election, have openly supported Trump. One of the AfD leaders, Tino Hrupal, expressed sympathy for the tariffs, telling the Bild newspaper: "Trump wants to protect his economy. Isn't that understandable?"
However, Alice Weidel, a prominent party leader, later warned on social media about the damage the tariffs could cause to Europe's largest economy. "We must seek solutions together with the US," she said.
In Britain, Nigel Farage, the leader of the populist Reform UK party, who describes Trump as a friend, has said he disagrees with the US approach to imposing tariffs. He said on his radio show that Trump “did too much, too quickly” and compared his approach to that of Liz Truss, the shortest-serving prime minister in British history, whose massive tax cuts caused market turmoil in 2022, after which she was forced to step down.
The current situation is in stark contrast to the euphoria of the right in Europe after Trump's inauguration, Reuters points out.
“Yesterday we were heretics,” Orban said at a summit of European far-right leaders in Madrid on February 8. “Today we are mainstream.”
In Hungary, Orban has touted his close ties to the White House. The conversation with Trump is so important to him that “it’s no longer news,” he told reporters on March 4, when asked about his recent conversation with the US president.
Orbán has also distanced himself from most European leaders by publicly praising the Trump administration's dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which was the main mechanism for providing American foreign policy assistance.
USAID, the US tool for expanding its influence abroad, has been an important source of funding for independent media in Hungary. It has also been a source of frustration for Orbán, who, according to a former US official, has privately complained to the Joe Biden administration about USAID's activities.
Expecting no repercussions from the friendly Trump administration, Orban has intensified his crackdown on political opponents.
In March, his ruling party pushed through a law that would allow for a ban on the annual LGBTQ+ Pride Parade in Hungary, sparking speculation that the new law could also be used to restrict political rallies or protests.
This was followed by constitutional amendments adopted by parliament on April 14, which allow Orban to suspend the citizenship of Hungarian citizens who also hold citizenship of a non-EU country, if they are assessed as a threat to Hungary's sovereignty.
Government spokesman Kovacs said in a post on social media that the change was aimed at combating “foreign-funded political pressure networks that undermine Hungarian democracy and sovereignty.”
Trump's return to the White House also resolved another issue. On April 15, the State Department lifted sanctions related to alleged corruption against Orbán's close associate Antal Rogan, stating that the punitive measures imposed under former President Biden were "inconsistent with U.S. foreign policy interests."
Some analysts doubt that Orban's friendship with Trump will help Hungary avoid EU-wide tariffs. The tariffs could hit hard the auto industry, on which the Hungarian economy is heavily dependent, with major investments from Germany, China and South Korea.
Orban claims that Hungary is negotiating an economic agreement with the US that will neutralize the effects of tariffs for the EU, but he did not provide any details.
During the Biden administration, Orban often blamed “a vulture, a leftist, democratic administration” for Hungary’s problems, David Pressman, the then U.S. ambassador to Hungary, told Reuters. “Well, the administration has changed, and all these problems are still plaguing Hungary,” Pressman said, “and that presents a serious political challenge for Viktor Orban.”
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has repeatedly blamed EU officials for the US tariffs, saying they were brought about by their “failure in negotiations.”
The political opposition in Hungary, however, is sending a different message: Hungary needs to be closer to Europe. And as tariffs increasingly threaten the economy, that idea is gaining more and more supporters.
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