Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberals retained power in Monday's election, but, according to a CTV News forecast.
However, he will lose the majority that Carney wanted to make it easier to negotiate tariffs with US President Donald Trump.
For a majority that would allow them to govern without the support of smaller parties, the Liberals needed to win 172 of the 343 constituencies in the House of Commons, known as "seats".
The Liberals were leading or had already been elected in 161 constituencies, while the Conservatives had 150, with votes still being counted, Reuters reports.
The westernmost province of British Columbia, where the last polls closed, could decide whether the Liberals will be left without a majority.
Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid polling institute, told Reuters that the Liberals' victory depended on three factors.
"It was the 'anyone but a conservative' formula, the Trump tariffs factor and Trudeau's departure... that allowed many left-leaning and traditional Liberal voters to return to the party," said Curl, referring to the resignation of unpopular former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Carney has promised a tough approach to Washington over import tariffs and said Canada would have to spend billions to reduce its dependence on the US. But the centre-right Conservatives, who have been demanding change after more than nine years of Liberal rule, have shown unexpected strength.
Minority governments in Canada rarely last longer than two and a half years.
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) also predicted a victory for the Liberals, but did not specify whether they would have a minority or majority government.
Still, the result represents a significant comeback for the Liberals, who were trailing by as much as 20 points in the polls in January, before Trudeau announced his withdrawal and Trump threatened tariffs and "annexation" of Canada.
"I remember in December, when everyone had already written off the Liberal Party," Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland told CTV. "People were even saying we were going to lose our official party status in the next election. And tonight, when it's clear that we're going to form government, from my perspective, that's an extraordinary result."
Freeland left the Liberal cabinet in December after a clash with Trudeau, which led to his resignation.
Trump's threats have awakened a wave of patriotism that has boosted support for Carney, a political newcomer who previously led two central banks of the G7 countries.
Trump resurfaced as a factor in the campaign last week, saying he could impose a 25 percent tariff on Canadian-made cars because the U.S. "doesn't want" those cars. He has previously said he could use "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state.
Carney has argued that his experience in managing economic issues makes him the best leader to face Trump, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has played on concerns about the cost of living, crime and the housing crisis.
On Monday, via social media, Trump reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st US state.
"Good luck to the great people of Canada," he said. "Elect a man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power to the highest level in the world for free, quadruple your automobile, steel, aluminum, lumber, energy and all other industries, without any tariffs or taxes, if Canada becomes the beloved 51st state of the United States of America. There will be no more artificial borders set up many years ago."
Conservative disappointment
Strained relations with the United States have forced supporters of two smaller parties - the left-leaning New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois - to defect to the Liberals. The Conservatives, however, appeared poised to make gains in the seat-rich Toronto area and thwart a Liberal majority.
The Liberals are the last party to win four consecutive elections in Canada, achieving this success in 2004.
Poiljevre focused his campaign on domestic problems and the need to "fix the country" which, he claimed, the Liberals had "destroyed".
There was no reaction from either Carney's or Poiljevre's camp to the CTV and CBC projections.
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