Ordinary people in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city, are reacting with great concern to news of gunmen opening fire and killing at least 26 tourists in Pahalgam, in the Indian part of Kashmir.
Islamist groups have carried out attacks in the region before, often causing tensions and even armed clashes between the armies of India and Pakistan.
This time, New Delhi seems determined to react strongly, accusing Pakistan of supporting separatists in Kashmir.
However, despite the tensions between the two nuclear powers, few in Pakistan expect a real war.
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"I don't think a full-scale war between India and Pakistan is possible," says Imtijaz Gul, executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies, based in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan.
"The nuclear capabilities of both countries represent a major obstacle to full-scale confrontation," he added to DW.
Fear of annihilation has so far prevented a full-scale war. But now New Delhi has taken a series of tough measures against Pakistan. Almost all diplomatic ties have been severed, borders have been closed, and land and air border crossings have been suspended, and the 1960 Indus River Treaty, which regulates the sharing of water from the giant river system, has been suspended.
In response, Islamabad downgraded diplomatic relations with New Delhi and suspended bilateral trade.
What's next
Six years ago, a suicide attack killed forty Indian paramilitary soldiers in Pulwama, also in Indian Kashmir. India retaliated with air strikes on Pakistan. The situation came close to war, but the crisis ended in a lull.
Could India strike again? "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government are under enormous pressure to retaliate with a military strike," Pravin Donti, an analyst at the Belgium-based International Crisis Group, told DW.
As he adds, Modi's government routinely uses hostile rhetoric towards Pakistan and this has now raised public expectations
"This government relies heavily on how it looks in the eyes of its citizens and probably feels that, in order to appease its supporters, it must launch a military operation. And it must look more convincing than the airstrikes of 2019."
Donti says diplomatic moves "do not have the same calming effect on public consciousness as military options." He warns that "the probability of a military operation is high."
But Maliha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States, believes such a move "would be met with a strong military response from Islamabad."
"It would have unpredictable consequences and would trigger a full-blown crisis. The idea of a limited war below the nuclear threshold, which is being speculated in India, carries immense risks. Such a scenario should be avoided at all costs," she says.
Syed Atta Hasnain, a former Indian general, said India's response need not be hasty and "should be carried out when success is guaranteed." He urged the public to have confidence in the political and military leadership.
How vulnerable is Pakistan to Indian pressure?
India and Pakistan will be in a state of cold war for the foreseeable future, Gul says. He thinks New Delhi will continue to pressure Pakistan using international influence.
"India will try to isolate Pakistan. Unilateral withdrawal from the Rivers Treaty is a big threat," he says. He adds that the trade and visa suspension, along with the international isolation of Islamabad, are "the most persuasive tools India has."
According to Gul, Pakistan has limited options. "It is a country that is hungry for foreign investment."
Pakistan is grappling with a severe economic crisis, with soaring inflation. In addition, the country is facing extremist groups operating in the provinces of Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in the west and northwest.
On the political front, one of the most popular politicians in the country, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, is still in prison. His supporters are at odds with the military establishment. The long-running conflict with India over Kashmir has the potential to further shake the country.
Geopolitical factor
The United Nations has called on India and Pakistan to show "maximum restraint" so that issues can be "resolved peacefully through meaningful mutual engagement."
Similarly, China's Foreign Ministry has asked regional rivals to "show restraint, find common ground" and "properly resolve differences through dialogue."
Iran has already offered to mediate, and Saudi Arabia has said it is trying to "prevent escalation."
Although US President Donald Trump initially condemned the Pahalgam attack, in his latest comments on the issue he refrained from taking sides.
"There have been tensions on that border for 1.500 years. It's always been that way, but I'm sure they'll work it out somehow. I know both leaders," Trump told reporters.
According to an article in Newsweek magazine, "The United States must navigate a complex diplomatic landscape" following the Kashmir attacks. "Washington's support for India, its growing partnership with the country and its efforts to manage relations with Pakistan, which has increasingly strong ties to China, are key to preserving stability in the region and avoiding a larger conflict," the magazine wrote, adding:
"Washington is likely to push for diplomatic solutions, with the aim of calming the crisis and preventing further violence. The outcome will not only affect South Asia, but could reshape global security, especially given China's growing influence in the region."
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