Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney scored a significant victory for the ruling Liberals and established himself as one of the leading advocates of multilateralism on the world stage, in contrast to the views of US President Donald Trump.
Carney, who has headed two G7 central banks, has strong international credibility, according to analysts. His direct attacks on Trump during the campaign resonated far beyond Canada, attracting the attention of numerous international actors, Reuters points out.
"Canada is ready to take a leadership role in bringing together a coalition of countries that share our values. We believe in international cooperation. We believe in the free and open exchange of goods, services and ideas. And if the US no longer wants to lead, Canada will," Carney said in Ottawa on April 3.
The Liberals retained power, defeating the Conservative Party, whose leader Pierre Polievre failed to capitalize on months of poll lead. His slogan "Canada First" and sharp, often populist tone reminded many of Trump, which ultimately likely cost him votes.
The Liberals, who have been in power for more than nine years, were trailing in the polls by as much as 20 percentage points in early January, before the unpopular Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as prime minister and before Trump began threatening tariffs and annexation.
“The decisive factor was the ‘only-not-Conservatives’, then Trump’s tariffs, then Labor’s withdrawal… That allowed many left-wing voters and traditional Liberal supporters to rally around the party again,” Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Research Institute, told Reuters.
Although Carney remains at the helm of the government, the Liberals won only a minority of seats in the House of Commons, which will make his cabinet politically more fragile and dependent on smaller parties to remain in power.
Australia goes to the polls on May 3, and major parties there are closely watching the rise in support for Carney, Australian political strategists said. As in Canada, growing voter concern about the global consequences of Trump's policies has led to a surge in support for the left-wing Labor Party.
Former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson, who knew Carney from his time at the Ministry of Finance, assessed that Carney is the best-prepared prime minister Canada has had since the 1960s, thanks to his experience at the helm of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada.
“He comes into the job extremely well prepared, he has a great network of contacts and people will be calling him and asking for advice, because their challenges now are primarily economic,” Robertson said.
According to him, Carney will likely immediately begin expanding Canada's trade ties with Europe, Australia and Asian democracies like Japan, to cushion the effects of new U.S. tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum.
Leading the smallest G7 member country, Carney will have to build a global coalition "without waving a red scarf in front of Trump," says Roland Paris, a former advisor to Trudeau.
"It will be a tightrope walk for him, a real balancing act. He and Canada have an interest in aligning with other like-minded people, but without the ambition to position Canada as the organizer of the resistance. Why make Canada a target," Paris said.
He adds that Carney's calm demeanor and financial experience could elicit a more constructive reaction from Trump, in contrast to his attitude toward Trudeau, whom the US president has derogatorily called "the governor."
"Carney and Canada have an interest in aligning with other like-minded people, but without the ambition to position Canada as the organizer of the resistance. Why make Canada a target," Paris said.
On Monday, in a social media post, Trump reiterated his call for Canada to become the 51st US state.
“Good luck to the great people of Canada,” he wrote. “Elect a man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power to the highest level in the world for free, and make your auto, steel, aluminum, lumber, energy and other industries FOUR TIMES THE SIZE, WITHOUT ANY TARIFFS OR TAXES - if Canada becomes the precious 51st state of the United States. Enough of the artificial borders of yesteryear.”
Carney promised to accelerate military spending and reduce reliance on the US for military equipment, as well as to cooperate with the proposed 800 billion euro EU defense fund.
However, Carney is unlikely to achieve the kind of influence that former German Chancellor Angela Merkel or French President Emmanuel Macron had, said Chris Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of the Americas Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Canada’s decline in global standing will prevent it from becoming a true leader of the Western world,” he said, pointing to the country’s underfunded military and stagnant economy.
Carney's victory, while encouraging for other politicians on the global center-left, is unlikely to serve as a model for others to replicate, as Trump's statements about annexing Canada posed a unique existential threat, Robertson said.
However, in the Australian election, analysts say Trump's unpopularity is hurting center-right opposition leader Peter Dutton, who until last month was in a close race.
Most polls now show the rival Labour Party in the lead or that it will form a minority government with the support of independent MPs.
"Trump has been a destructive force for the conservative coalition here, and more broadly around the world. He has really dealt a blow to the conservative movement with the way he has implemented his policies in Washington," said Andrew Carswell, a former spokesman for Conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
And in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has praised Trump, faces his most serious opposition in years, as the economy stumbles and risks worsening due to Trump's aggressive trade policies toward Europe.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose Labour Party Carney supported in 2023, has been trying to take a more conciliatory stance towards Trump, but has failed to improve his poor poll results.
"If Labour wants to regain its standing with the wider public, perhaps a tougher stance on Trump could help. He's not popular: the tariffs, the trade war, all that, his stance on Ukraine, all of that is being received very poorly by the British public," said Patrick English, director of political analysis at the YouGov polling agency.
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