Economic growth in the US fell by 0,3 percent in the first quarter of this year, the first recession in the American economy since the pandemic of 2022, preliminary estimates from the Department of Commerce in Washington showed today.
The generator of the GDP decline was, as reported by the media, primarily the strong growth in imports, while personal consumption of citizens, which is an important engine of GDP growth, increased by only 1,8 percent, which is the lowest rate since mid-2023.
Business experts had expected the economy to grow by 0,4 percent in the first quarter of this year, compared to 2,4 percent in the last quarter of 2024.
NBC Television writes that the goal of most developed economies is to have quarterly GDP growth of two to three percent, and that the US has been slightly above two percent for the past two years, and that until President Donald Trump's new tariff policy, such a pace was expected.
However, his policy of raising tariffs has seriously shaken the US economy, and the Commerce Department announced that the trade deficit unexpectedly widened to a record level in March, as companies began to stockpile imported goods before the new tariffs took effect.
However, these imports and trade deficits are not necessarily an indicator of economic weakness, as long as the imports are not offset by consumption and investment, writes NBC. However, the sudden increase in imports has made it difficult for the rest of the economy to absorb them in a short time, and the result is lower GDP.
Experts at the financial corporation Morgan Stanley have assessed that a "collapse in imports" in the coming months could lead to a temporary recovery in GDP in the second quarter.
GDP growth in America is calculated over a period of one year, which is different from the methodology in Europe, and in order to compare it with the European methodology, the American growth rate should be divided by four.
Stefan Bales, a US expert at the German development bank KfW, said that fears of a recession in the US that have existed since February have come true, and added that the current problems due to imports will probably disappear soon, but that "the ugly consequences of Trump's unrestrained economic slowdown" will only be seen in the middle of this year, dpa reports.
Dirk Klench from the central bank of the German state of Baden-Württemberg assessed that "the situation in which the American economy finds itself is very bad, and the coming months will show how bad it is."
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