The Trump Factor shapes global politics, from one election to the next, though not necessarily in a way that would suit the president of the United States.
In key elections in Canada and Australia over the past two weeks, centrist parties have seen a political resurgence, while parties that adopted rhetoric from the MAGA playbook have lost support.
President Trump has only been in office for three months, but his policies, including the imposition of tariffs and the disruption of alliances, are already echoing in political struggles within numerous countries around the world.
While it is still too early to say that anti-Trump forces are on the rise globally, it is clear that voters have Donald Trump somewhere in their minds as they make decisions.
Political relatives
Canada and Australia have much in common: a political system, a developed mining industry, and a common monarch, King Charles. Now they share a remarkable political story.
In both countries, before Donald Trump took office again, the ruling center-left parties were in a bad position and looked set to lose power. Conservative parties led in the polls, whose leaders flirted with Trumpian policies, both in style and substance.
However, just weeks after Trump's return to power, the political landscape in Canada and Australia was similarly transformed: center-left parties experienced a sudden rise and election victories. In both cases, conservative leaders not only lost the elections, but also lost their seats in parliament.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned with a clear anti-Trump message, making the US president's threats to Canada a central part of his campaign rhetoric. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese did not follow that path, but both benefited politically from Trump's influence - gaining, as the media put it, an "anti-Trump boost."
Conservative leaders suffered heavy electoral defeats. Pierre Pouliot, leader of the Canadian Conservatives, and Peter Dutton, leader of the Australian Conservatives, have failed to shake off their damaging ties to Trump. Dutton later withdrew or watered down some of Trump’s unpopular proposals, such as drastically reducing the number of public sector employees. Pouliot, on the other hand, has never seriously distanced himself from Trump’s approach — even when Trump openly threatened Canadian sovereignty.
Charles Edel, chairman of the Australian chapter of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the Australian election represented “a real political eruption.” He believes that Trump, at least indirectly, influenced the outcome, although the campaign themes were largely domestic.
“There are enough similarities with the Canadian election to conclude that the Conservatives’ chances have begun to decline in proportion to the rise of Trump’s tariffs and attacks on American allies,” Edel wrote in an email.
Some in Canada saw the Australian election results as a sign of solidarity from their “cousins” to the far south. One internet meme read: “Elbows Up!”, combining the Australian prime minister’s nickname with Mark Carney’s hockey-inspired Canadian anti-Trump slogan: “Elbows Up!”
Escape to safety
Mark Carney benefited from the perception among voters that he would provide a steady hand in dealing with Donald Trump and his unpredictable impact on the Canadian economy, which is deeply integrated with the US and already suffering from tariffs and uncertainty. His background as an economic policymaker also worked in his favor.
A similar narrative has been observed on the other side of the world - in Singapore, where the argument for stability in times of crisis has clearly helped the ruling People's Action Party.
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong told parliament last month that Singapore would be hit harder by new US tariffs because of its reliance on global trade. He urged citizens to prepare for further shocks and predicted a slowdown in growth.
Like Carney, who declared that “the old relationship between Canada and the United States is over,” Wong issued a grim warning ahead of the election: “The global conditions that enabled Singapore’s success in previous decades may no longer apply.”
On Saturday, voters re-elected his party, which was not questioned, but is nevertheless interpreted as confirmation of the “flight to safety” strategy that the party consciously implemented.
“This is another case of the Trump effect,” says Cherian George, author of several books on Singapore politics. “Deep concerns about Trump’s trade wars have led a decisive number of voters to strongly support the current government.”
Mixed influence
In Germany, an important Western ally and the first country to hold national elections after Trump's inauguration, the impact of the Trump factor was less direct - but still felt.
Friedrich Merz, who was sworn in as Germany's new chancellor on Tuesday, did not benefit politically from Trump's return to power in the same way that leaders in Canada or Australia did in recent elections.
Yet while Trump’s confrontation with the US’s European allies on defense and trade did not help him before the election, it did after. Merck succeeded in pushing through a temporary lifting of budget constraints in fiscally conservative Germany, which will make it easier for him to serve as chancellor. He did so by arguing that old beliefs about America’s commitment to a common defense had vanished.
“Do you really believe that any American government would agree to NATO functioning as it has been?” he asked lawmakers in March.
The MAGA-sphere's support for the far-right German party AfD has not benefited it, according to polls - although Elon Musk went so far as to publicly support the party and even appeared at one of its events via video link.
British exception
An unpredictable American president can have unpredictable consequences for foreign leaders, as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is rapidly discovering.
Starmer, a centre-left leader who won the election before Donald Trump took office again, was initially praised for his businesslike and measured approach to the new US president. Unlike Mark Carney, Starmer has tried to avoid direct criticism of Trump, seeking common ground and trying to prevent strained relations. After a visit to the White House, which was hailed as a success, even some political opponents showed some degree of impression.
At the same time, Trump's ally in Britain, Nigel Farage, leader of the anti-immigration Reform UK party, was facing accusations of sympathizing with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, Starmer's diplomatic strategy soon lost momentum. A visit to the White House yielded no concrete results, as he failed to secure exemptions for British goods from new US tariffs.
Last week, his Labour Party suffered a serious blow in local and other elections in parts of England - losing 187 council seats, as well as a snap parliamentary election in one of its traditional strongholds.
In contrast, Farage's party achieved spectacular success - not only winning the aforementioned parliamentary seat, but also taking two mayoral posts and making major gains across the country. For the first time, Reform UK won power at the lowest levels of local government in multiple regions
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